The Coming Internet Depression
from the be-afraid,-be-very-afraid dept
Here's the first chapter from a new book predicting that we are entering an "Internet Depression which will be very bad. The author makes some good points about how the feedback in the cycle may force a depression (as dot coms fail to go public, VCs stop funding, innovation dries up, old economy companies get complacent, economy drops). He also talks about policy issues that can help, or hurt the situation. It's definitely a "doomsday" type scenario. It's worth reading, but I'm not convinced that reality will follow his predictions. No, I'm not saying that a recession or even a depression is impossible (that would be shortsighted of me), but I'm not yet convinced that it's going to happen now. I think the main issue is how strongly people overreact to all the negative news about technology companies. If it gets to the point where even good, strong ideas with good, strong business models can't get funded because nobody will fund any ideas, then there might be trouble. However, if people keep their heads, I don't necessarily think the economy will collapse. Is that too much to hope for?
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In answer to your last question.
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The Coming Internet Depression
What's your view now (April 2001)? It seems that Mandel was pretty much on point so far.
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