eBooks Will Rise Again
from the yes,-but... dept
A Newsweek article looks at what happened in the world of eBooks and seems to have learned nothing from the past. If this is an article by Newsweek's "resident futurist" then, it's time for them to look elsewhere. The guy basically talks about the ridiculous economics of the current book publishing system, mentions the fact that eBooks have failed miserably in the past, and then says "but, they'll come back because they have to". His main premise is that no one wants to buy eBook readers, but as we all suddenly rush out to buy tablet computers, they'll become the eBook readers we all use without us realizing it. There are a few problems with this article. First, he gives no reason why we're all going to rush out and buy tablet computers. Companies have been pushing them for years with little to no success. Second, he completely ignores the cultural issues of book reading and book buying. People don't buy eBooks because they don't have an eBook reader - but because they like to read books as they are. Paper books still remain the best way to read a book for most people - and suddenly having a tablet computer isn't going to change that.
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No Subject Given
Something that all of these pundits fail to realize (or maybe just mention) is that you do not need a dedicated ebook reader/device. They are nice to look at and appear to be non-threatening at first for the computer illiterate folk, but they are a limited function device the same as the failed batch of non-PC web terminals. Sadly, the publishing industry would favor them because of the percieved ability to create a device with inherent copy protection...
The best suited devices are already out there - PDA's. There are small (size of a paperback or smaller), have great battery lifes, and are now established meme. They're great, I have mine with me all the time anyway. Whenever I'm stuck with time on my hands I can dive into a chapter or two. I'll just end with a link, Fictionwise - a great site...
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Paper
Until 'electronic paper' becomes a reality intead of a research project, eBooks are never going to be able to compare with a normal paper book. The only niche they might succeed in is for texts where having searching features outweighs the eBook's inherent drawbacks: tech manuals.
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eBooks Not Ready For Prime Time
But for all of that, this is not a 'technology problem.' Technology will continue to improve, although I think it will favor dedicated devices - a different rant, for another day. The real problem is the licensing. The terms under which some of these things come out are ridiculous - I can't print, copy, loan it to somebody, and so on. And that's not the technology - at least wrt the Adobe product, all those capabilities are provided - but the publisher turns them off.
An aside, Fictionwise is quite cool, but I'm getting too old to read books off my Visor.
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They have their uses
Technical subjects may better be served as ebooks, it is easier to update them when things change and they change rapidly. But for classic subjects either book or ebook will serve.
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ok, last time,,,this is your brain...
The innovation phase is OVER.
This is now a recession.
Whatever made it to "mass consumption" will stay.
The rest will have to wait for the next innovation phase boom, which wont happen for another 10-20 years. Any innovation in the next 1-5 years will NOT be part of the new innovation phase everyone will clamor for, but the last gasps of this one. The stock market fueled this innovation phase, and stocks are not going to get stupid wack silly until all people who got burned are dead. Patterns repeats every 70 years. Like Halley's comet.,
I hope I am clear. So you can end all your speculating and move on with your lives. If tablets didnt make it this time around, then you will need to wait for mass adoption. only the diehards will adopt for now.
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No Subject Given
This is now a recession..."
I don't wanna, but I can easily side with you on this.
"Technical subjects may better be served as ebooks..."
I'm just the opposite here. I don't mind not having a "paper" book when reading a regular story (it's a linear progression), but I definately prefer one when looking for technical info - it allows me to keep fingers in different sections of the book as I go back and forth to the index, and info, and back and forth. Also, I don't want to have to mentally "deal with" one technology whilest I am trying to figure out another...
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Re: ok, last time,,,this is your brain...
Now the media has declared that innovation is over. Don't get suckered again. The media are technically-illiterate slackers. Innovation is slow, and less driven by VC money than one might think. If anything, it's more likely to happen now than when a lot of tourist MBAs are holding their hats out in the valley trying to catch some of the dough. Only the hardcore engineers and true believers are left now.
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eBooks Cost Too Much!
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Mathamatics
Until the mathematician get their act together and start writing math for biology (Quite possible, and will CERTAINLY have a good effect, in the long run, about as much as Issac Newton did with some of the first advanced physics based math: calculus), or they find a new loop hole in the models for physics, or they come up with a better description of how physics work, we're out of sudden jumps.
Slow innovation shall continue.
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