Predicting The Next Big IT Failure

from the disruptive-technologies dept

Clayton Christensen is taking his "disruptive technologies" theories on the road and is trying to predict what companies are at risk of missing the boat, thanks to a failure to understand the impact of disruptive technologies. He suggests that HP is making some huge strategic mistakes, and are opening themselves up to failure. He says they did things correctly in the past, by setting up separate subsidiaries who were designed to cannibalize the parent division's business, but they are now moving away from that plan. It's amazing that, in this day and age, there are companies that still can't grasp Christensen's ideas. I'm still waiting for the smart company to realize they need to hire someone in the position of a "Chief Competitive Officer", whose job it is to make sure that the strongest competitor to a company's offerings is coming from within the company. In the technology world, if you're not cannibalizing your own product lines, someone else will. Christensen also explains why the Oracle-PeopleSoft battle is really a reaction to disruptive technologies. However, he points out that it's focused on the wrong side of things, and no matter what happens in the end, both companies will still be facing significant threats from the low end.
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  1. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 26 Jun 2003 @ 1:56pm

    Punish The Smart

    It's interesting how the IT industry feels the need to punish itself for being, well, smart. People in other industries like health care, law enforcement, or retail make about the same money, have much more job security, and much more of a camaraderie attitude to protect their colleagues. It doesn't come across as an attractive career for people in high-wage countries.



    link to this | view in thread ]

  2. icon
    Mike (profile), 26 Jun 2003 @ 2:04pm

    Re: Punish The Smart

    I'm not sure I understand your point. Who is being "punished"? There's no punishment. It's just the natural evolution of the market.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  3. identicon
    Sam Moses, 26 Jun 2003 @ 2:10pm

    This

    I see "Trusted Computing" as the next major failure. Although, BPM (though not as menacing) could be a ripe candidate as well.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  4. identicon
    Torsten Jacobi, 26 Jun 2003 @ 2:12pm

    the next IT failure

    Thanks for the hint. The idea is compelling. It seems pretty obvious, that biger companies move slower and miss disruptive market forces. However failures are odd as it's hardly favourable for executives to give up (potential) sales and promote a discruptive technology. It's for the inidividual more succesfull to deny any new approach and leave the company if a new technology really suceeds and leave the mess to you successor.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  5. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 26 Jun 2003 @ 2:14pm

    Re: Punish The Smart

    Your belief that "evolution" should create victims, because "market forces" rule above all else, are what sets apart IT professionals. For whatever reason, IT professionals are fanatical believers of Darwinian economics.

    Other professions place more emphasis on ethics (helping society as a whole, rather than subverting the existing order) or on controlling the market itself, to protect the profession. IT people believe they are doing good by sabotaging market control (usually themselves, but occasionally other professions). In the process, they make a lot of enemies and end up losing their jobs, so they move on to the next new technology and repeat the cycle.


    link to this | view in thread ]

  6. icon
    Mike (profile), 26 Jun 2003 @ 2:28pm

    Re: Punish The Smart

    Your belief that "evolution" should create victims, because "market forces" rule above all else, are what sets apart IT professionals. For whatever reason, IT professionals are fanatical believers of Darwinian economics.

    Who said anything about "victims"? I certainly wasn't implying that. In fact, I'm not implying anything that you're saying. I'm saying that in a competitive market (in any competitive market) this is what happens. It's not just tech. It's true of any open market.

    Other professions place more emphasis on ethics (helping society as a whole, rather than subverting the existing order) or on controlling the market itself, to protect the profession. IT people believe they are doing good by sabotaging market control (usually themselves, but occasionally other professions). In the process, they make a lot of enemies and end up losing their jobs, so they move on to the next new technology and repeat the cycle.

    Technology is not interested in "subverting the existing order". It's interested in improving things. Making things more efficient and enjoyable.

    Are you saying you'd prefer to live in the stone ages? Man, once that metal stuff came along it really harmed the stone business.

    I'm guessing you're just trolling because otherwise, your argument makes no sense.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  7. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 26 Jun 2003 @ 9:20pm

    Re: Punish The Smart

    "Who said anything about "victims"? I certainly wasn't implying that. In fact, I'm not implying anything that you're saying. I'm saying that in a competitive market (in any competitive market) this is what happens. It's not just tech. It's true of any open market."

    That depends on how you define "open". I'm not aware of any economic arguments that say companies should "cannibalize" their own business and harm other divisions, as opposed to coordinating the release of a new product so the company, customers, and market as a whole can function well. Although IT professionals are the least complacent people I know, they have a strange belief that existing IT professionals cannot be trained in new technologies, therefore new technologies should just be implemented without warning and the "old" IT professionals should be fired. I don't know of any other profession that makes such pessimistic assumptions about its members, or is so eager to fire competent people.

    "Technology is not interested in "subverting the existing order". It's interested in improving things. Making things more efficient and enjoyable."

    From my decade in the IT industry, I beg to differ. I look at the psychology of the kinds of people that go into IT. They are typically the outcasts who got picked on a lot growing up, so they harbor a deep grudge against society. There is a deep undercurrent of the hacker-terrorist mentality throughout the profession, of being able to get the ultimate revenge by causing massive disruption to society. It is a field dominated by angry young men who think in terms of short term profit, and slitting as many throats as possible in the process. They live in a world of violent video games, movies, weekends spent watching anime in their bedrooms. They are fed a religious dogma of free market economics, the notion of making money at all costs, because the weak deserve to be stepped on, and this makes the world a better place. Their childlike socialization manifests in the popularity of Star Trek, Lord of the Rings, Dungeons and Dragons. From the many hours spent over computer screens or model figurines, IT professionals develop chronic soreness of trapezius and sternocleidomastoid muscles, so this becomes a part of their cycle of anger.

    "Are you saying you'd prefer to live in the stone ages? Man, once that metal stuff came along it really harmed the stone business."

    This is the IT equivalent of the ultimate teen insult, "You must be gay." The IT business spins its wheels in the mud, making rapid changes that people didn't ask for. In the process, they alienate the non-IT world, so ITers end up mostly hurting themselves.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  8. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 26 Jun 2003 @ 9:45pm

    Re: Punish The Smart

    "Are you saying you'd prefer to live in the stone ages? Man, once that metal stuff came along it really harmed the stone business."

    Oh, and it took thousands of years for metals to overtake stones. Stones are still used for plenty of things today, and stonemasons can make six-figure salaries. The use of metals may have had more to do with running out of good quality obsidian than metals being better. Neolithic obsidian blades were as sharp as modern surgical instruments, while Roman legions chronically suffered from bent swords. Roman legions had the advantage mostly in tactical bags of tricks, as well as siege weapons built out of wood and stone.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  9. identicon
    thecaptain, 27 Jun 2003 @ 7:34am

    Re: Punish The Smart

    "From my decade in the IT industry, I beg to differ. I look at the psychology of the kinds of people that go into IT. They are typically the outcasts who got picked on a lot growing up, so they harbor a deep grudge against society. There is a deep undercurrent of the hacker-terrorist mentality throughout the profession, of being able to get the ultimate revenge by causing massive disruption to society. It is a field dominated by angry young men who think in terms of short term profit, and slitting as many throats as possible in the process. They live in a world of violent video games, movies, weekends spent watching anime in their bedrooms. They are fed a religious dogma of free market economics, the notion of making money at all costs, because the weak deserve to be stepped on, and this makes the world a better place. Their childlike socialization manifests in the popularity of Star Trek, Lord of the Rings, Dungeons and Dragons. From the many hours spent over computer screens or model figurines, IT professionals develop chronic soreness of trapezius and sternocleidomastoid muscles, so this becomes a part of their cycle of anger. "

    That's not only a widely inaccurate generalization, but its also insulting. I work in a large IT department and I'm proud to say I work with professionals, most of whom are competent, dedicated, experienced and whether they like Star Trek or not (most don't here) has no relevence.

    None of us want to "disrupt" anything, our goal here is the improvement of lives (we're an IT department for a large health care facility).

    You sir do not sound like a professional with a decade's worth of experience, you sound like a whiney arrested teenager with a chip on his shoulder who thinks its fun to insult people...that's YOUR childlike socialzation manifestation.

    I just fed the troll I guess.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  10. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 27 Jun 2003 @ 10:24am

    Re: Punish The Smart

    "That's not only a widely inaccurate generalization, but its also insulting. I work in a large IT department and I'm proud to say I work with professionals, most of whom are competent, dedicated, experienced and whether they like Star Trek or not (most don't here) has no relevence...."

    Sure, if you want to gamble your career on the notion that your employer will not replace you with a bunch of whiney teens with chips on their shoulders. When you get laid off, nobody will want to hire an old IT professional.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  11. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 27 Jun 2003 @ 10:31am

    Re: Punish The Smart

    That's a load of Shit. In many cases older professionals are the only ones with the skills needed to work with legacy technology which runs the majority of most IT infrastructure. Teenagers in most cases have no interest in these systems. But that's life, eh?

    link to this | view in thread ]

  12. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 27 Jun 2003 @ 10:41am

    Re: Punish The Smart

    It is a load of shit, but still held to be the "truth" by hiring managers and younger workers who dominate the profession. When older workers are let go and things stop working properly, then the company will go through a cycle of "outsourcing", "acquisition", or whatever else, shuffle a lot of people, dismantle and re-mantle systems, then the next generation of gullible young workers who built the new system chase the mirage of job security.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  13. identicon
    thecaptain, 27 Jun 2003 @ 10:42am

    Re: Punish The Smart

    "Sure, if you want to gamble your career on the notion that your employer will not replace you with a bunch of whiney teens with chips on their shoulders. When you get laid off, nobody will want to hire an old IT professional."

    If you have the skills and the know-how to keep up with IT and you love what you do (as opposed to the droves of programmer-analysts who got into it "for the money") I can say its not a gamble.

    For me, the way things are going, definitely not a gamble...

    I've found in my own experience that:

    - companies who's managers keep laying off the experienced IT folk and replace them with "whiney" teenagers do not do well in the long run (been there, done that a few years back)
    - the most talented folks (any age even in their fifties...around here, I'm in my early thirties and I'm the second youngest programmer...the rest are 45 and up) aren't in fear for their jobs.

    The ones that ARE in fear are like the programmer we hired a couple of years back...I tried talking shop a bit and the response I got was "I hate computers, I don't even have one at home...when I'm out of here at night I don't want to see one til the next day"...so I asked why be a programmer analyst at all and he said "because its a really good career that pays well"...he lasted six months...got fired. I ran into him last month and he spouts pretty much the same lines as you, that we replaced him with a whiney teen (not true, we didn't hire anyone), that it was hard for a guy in his thirties to get a job in IT now..etc.. etc..

    link to this | view in thread ]

  14. identicon
    Anonymous Coward, 27 Jun 2003 @ 10:48am

    Re: Punish The Smart

    You speak the standard defense of older IT workers who say they really like the field. It won't matter, because when you have finished building great low-maintenance systems, you will have automated yourself out of a job. The higher-ups in your company will decide to outsource the entire IT department to companies run by younger, cheaper, more gullible workers who really like IT also. You will be invited to apply to the outsourcing company, which will be run by younger, dumber hiring managers who see no value in you. I've seen that happen at a Fortune 500 company.


    link to this | view in thread ]


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