Predict Crime Like You Predict The Weather
from the tomorrow-should-be-high-in-vandalism,-but-a-low-in-shoplifting dept
Not quite to the level of "Minority Report", but researchers are working on ways to predict crime in any given area. The work is actually similar to predicting the weather - taking different bits of trending information and using it to predict future results. So far, they say that within a given police beat, they can predict crime levels (on a monthly basis) accurately 80% of the time. The best leading indicators are apparently "soft crime" increases - such as "mischief, disorderly conduct, and trespassing". As they point out, it seems pretty obvious, but this is the first time anyone is doing anything with it. Of course, the other issue is that (unlike the weather), their predictions can impact actions (send more police into a predicted high crime zone), making the end results seem less accurate.
Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.
While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.
–The Techdirt Team
Reader Comments
Subscribe: RSS
View by: Time | Thread
Predicting crime
Au contraire. Way back when I was in high school -- I graduated in 1983 -- my class got a visit from a police officer who was pissed off that the department was using (no doubt rudimentary) statistical analysis to try to predict where they should send squad cars on patrol. This was in Eugene, Oregon -- not exactly a center of computer innovation -- so it must have been a practice somewhere else as well. Or maybe I'm wrong, and Eugene was the home of some lone, unappreciated criminology genius who was 20 years ahead of his time.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
PD vs. FD Bloodsport
I've seen those guys fight before, both types are very powerful men, and it's pretty scary being near them. They smash right through glass doors and keep fighting, like Matrix or something.
[ link to this | view in thread ]