Thoughts On The Google IPO Filing

from the IPO-different dept

The decision to go with an auction model for the IPO isn't a huge surprise (it was rumored last October). What is interesting, however is that they don't seem to be doing it through W.R. Hambrecht, who is considered the expert in Dutch Auction IPOs. In fact, the filing hints at the fact that Google is making use of their own experiences auctioning off their advertisements in figuring out how to do this auction. That seems a little scary as (a) auctioning off ad inventory and IPO shares is quite different and (b) you always get a little worried when a company relies too heavily on their own experience in an area where they're not experts. Still, the decision to review all potential investors to make sure they know what they're investing in (possibly with a test of some sort) while banning anyone who looks as though they're trying to game the system is a very smart move, and should help Google end up with more informed investors.

The folks on Wall Street must have very mixed opinions about this whole affair. They want Google to go public more than anything in the world, but the setup of this IPO is really designed to route around their usual (questionable) methods as much as possible. Still, since no banks wanted to miss out on taking the firm public, it looks like it wasn't that hard to sign up the underwriters. There will be a few other interesting things to watch for as a result of this. Will other companies try to go public on similar terms, and will Wall Street allow it? Will they claim it's a special case, or will this "educate" pre-IPO companies that they don't have to play by the old rules. If that does happen, Morgan Stanley and CSFB could benefit by having the experience of running such an unconventional offering, while also acting as though they're willing to avoid the silly Wall Street games.

The other item that's worth noting is whether or not this structure actually works, or if the pressure really does become too much. From everything Google has done so far, I'm sure they believe that they can withstand the pressure. If anyone can, it probably is them. Reading through the S-1 you realize they put a lot of thought into how to structure this. However, the riskiest thing I see in the S-1 is the fact that this unconventional IPO is really designed to keep the power in the hands of Eric Schmidt, Larry Page and Sergey Brin. There are plenty of reasons why that's good - because they've done a fantastic job so far, and they appear to function quite well as a team. However, it makes me question the succession plan and how the company continues to manage should any of the three leave. The structure they're setting up is basically designed to work great, assuming the three of them all continue to work there. Should something happen to one of them, or should the working relationship falter, the company seems less well structured to deal with the change. Hopefully they are putting in place plans for such things, but it is still a risk. Overall, I'm impressed by the way they've put this together and I hope it works out well for them. It would be nice to see a company actually show Wall Street that the bankers are supposed to be serving the companies, and not the other way around. I hope it's the start of a trend.

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