Earthquake Forecasts Getting Better?

from the we-hope-it's-true dept

Predicting earthquakes has never been what you would call an exact science, so claims of newfound accuracy in this area simultaneously fill us with hope and doubt. Last year some researchers said they'd developed a method that could predict when and where a quake would hit within a nine-month range. The results have been inconclusive: It apparently worked with two major quakes, but failed a third time. Now the U.S. Geological Survey is getting into the act, giving Californians probability forecasts through the USGS website for 24-hour periods. The goal, they say, is not to predict earthquakes as much as warn people of the probability. It will be interesting again to see how well these statistics bear out in reality (this system appears different than the one discussed last year). Still, it's hard to imagine people checking the USGS site all the time for their local earthquake forecasts, let alone knowing what to do with the various warning levels (terror alerts, anyone?). Ironically, the system might be more valuable after an initial quake, when people can log on and find out the potential for aftershocks. Even better, the USGS could improve the dissemination of forecasts with automated notifications, maybe via email or text message. After that, the only thing missing would be a Google Maps hack.
Hide this

Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.

Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.

While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.

–The Techdirt Team


Reader Comments

Subscribe: RSS

View by: Time | Thread


  1. identicon
    secret squirrel, 18 May 2005 @ 6:16pm

    if there ever was a site that needed an RSS feed

    This is it.

    link to this | view in thread ]

  2. identicon
    copyright me, 18 May 2005 @ 11:51pm

    Waste of time

    Say there was a 50% chance Los Angeles will be vapourised in the next 20 years. Would anyone leave? No. People are optimistic to the point of absurdity.

    link to this | view in thread ]


Follow Techdirt
Essential Reading
Techdirt Deals
Report this ad  |  Hide Techdirt ads
Techdirt Insider Discord

The latest chatter on the Techdirt Insider Discord channel...

Loading...
Recent Stories

This site, like most other sites on the web, uses cookies. For more information, see our privacy policy. Got it
Close

Email This

This feature is only available to registered users. Register or sign in to use it.