Does Futurism Have A Future?
from the predicting-what-now? dept
It's always fun to read about what various "futurists" have to say, even if it it's pretty rare that anyone goes back and looks at how accurate the futurists really are. Slate is looking at the latest generation of futurists and noting that it basically seems like more of the same. Everyone's big on technology, but some think the technology will be empowering, while others think it will be damaging. Still, it seems like the real problem with futurism is the name. It suggests that people are actually predicting the future -- which no one can really do. The value in futurism isn't in predicting the future, but in raising different possibilities that people might not have thought about otherwise. That helps people better understand multiple possible futures, and think about what would need to be done in any of them. This way, people aren't caught offguard by innovations and changes. Unfortunately, though, with the name "futurists" being used, too many are dismissed as random musings of people trying to predict a future they'll never get right.
Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.
While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.
–The Techdirt Team
Reader Comments
Subscribe: RSS
View by: Time | Thread
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Don't stop thinking about the future!
[ link to this | view in thread ]
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Asimov anyone?
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Futurogy or Forecasting
With a good set of past and present information any pro can forecast the path of anything, never a 100% but pretty close. One doesn't call the weather man a futurist but just a forecaster but some PREDICTED Katrina's disaster to the milimeter. No one believed though, and that's our problem, not theirs. Give me some past data and could forecast Bush's & Gates' fall(true democracy being true)
[ link to this | view in thread ]
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Lack of accountability dooms the futurists
Where's my jet pack? Where's my 3D wrist TV? Sometimes things that are technically feasible don't happen for nontechnical reasons, and these reasons are important yet ignored.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
The problem with futurism
What we need is more people thinking about now, how to deal with today's problems, so that we will have a future. There is no point wondering what the future of computers or robots or science in general will bring if our earth is on the brink of devastation from global warming. In fact, there are not enough minds on global warming because they don't really seem to know what is going on, just alarmists predicting the end of the earth because our cars exhaust carbon dioxide or monoxide. These futurists posing as scientists saying that if we don't change our ways, we will be doomed. Offer us a solution on how we can change our ways rather then alarmist grand standing.
We need more people thinking about solutions NOW rather then what it will be like later. I equate futurists to psychics, roadshow con artists that will take your money to tell you what you want to hear. There is nothing "professional" about this.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Too many question marks
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Uhm.. That global warming thing? That is one of those things we need futurists to work on.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
The problem with armchair thinkers
The best minds will think about a problem and work towards a solution to that problem. They are often consumed with one task. A necessary process.
People that can think about many tasks, evaluate the possibilites and probabilities, and guide others to think about these are also necessary.
You can sit in your chair and demand solutions but this is not productive. Get passionate about something and get involved.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
http://www.burrus.com/
[ link to this | view in thread ]
[ link to this | view in thread ]
The Now of the Future
AND
"Uhm.. That global warming thing? That is one of those things we need futurists to work on."
The real issue is that futurists are needed to spark the imagination to solve the daily problems. But without sufficient focus on the here and now, there cannot be accurate futuristic trends. It doesn't help having the futurists redesign the armchair, if the person to use the armchair is dead, deformed, or still trying to get a hot meal.
I agree wholeheartedly with chip2022 (although not yet actively... inherent laziness... sigh) about needing to get up and DO something. THIS is the problem with our current population of able-bodied people - we are sure that we can change the world with a keyboard.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Poop
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Mike...
I don't know about everyone else, but I prefer nothing over a fluff piece like this. Its the equivalent of your local news station running a "public interest" piece.
Please get back to reporting on something a little more substantial for those of us who can handle multi-syllable words.
Normally, I look forward to reading posts during lunch (or while killing time in pointless meetings).
Please don't tell me that you've jumped the shark. :-(
Hopefully you're just having an off week...
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Re: Don't stop thinking about the future!
(It was a long fortune.)
[ link to this | view in thread ]
RE: Lack of accountability dooms the futurists
Although I agree that all "futurists" are nothing more than lame butts trying to make money by making up crap, you're examples aren't good ones.
Where's my jet pack? You can by one of these things. It costs about $25, 000 for each 15 second ride. If Jerry Sienfield took the $5 million per episode deal offered to him, he would be the only person capable of using a jetpack to commute to work. The technology has been around for a long time, it just isn't cheap to use.
Where's my 3D wrist TV? Didn't you get the memo? I'll forward a copy to you. No one uses wrist watches anymore. We all use cell phones. Your TV is on your cell phone. You can download some old 3D movies, but everyone thinks they are lame.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Re: Futurogy or Forecasting
I can just imagine someone going in true democratic fashion and asking for the speed limits to be raised 10 MPH nationally, over half the population would vote for it and then you would find a lot more dead people on the roads. Not that I believe speed limits are accurate but some sharp turns require slower speeds.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Re: RE: Lack of accountability dooms the futurists
basment, that Popular Science promised me I'd have long
before now. Electricty was going to be free, work would
be optional... these guys never get it right.
That said, I have a much easier life than my parents or
grandparents. Change just doesn't come as fast as
we imagine.
I wonder what the age of genetic engineering will bring?
[ link to this | view in thread ]
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Re: Futurogy or Forecasting
[ link to this | view in thread ]
It's a neat idea, already partially implemented by longbets. People make predictions, and occasionally bet on them (winnings go to charity).
[ link to this | view in thread ]
They missed one group. Its called realitists.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
But thats exactily what it is.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
[ link to this | view in thread ]
dgoj webvt
[ link to this | view in thread ]
atlndv chlkyitgj
[ link to this | view in thread ]
kpnrc saczyjw
[ link to this | view in thread ]