The Contrarian View Of The iPhone
from the this-post-was-written-on-a-mac dept
Unless you've been living under a rock for a few years, you've probably noticed one or two stories about the rumored Apple iPhone. We've largely avoided them, because really, nothing's changed, and despite what anybody says, or reads into patent applications, there's no hard information. But the rumors continue to gather pace, with many people now believing the iPhone will be announced at Macworld in January. The common thinking appears to be, basically, that the iPhone will be the greatest mobile phone ever made, and will totally dominate the industry, leaving established vendors in its wake. But here's a thought -- what if the iPhone sucks? An interesting story over at CNET takes the contrarian view, and makes a number of salient points, in particular the widespread assumption that Apple will simply be able to waltz into this market and instantly get things right. It argues this perception is based largely on Apple's success with the iPod, but the mobile-phone market and the MP3 player market are radically different. MP3 players are relatively simple and straightforward devices, while mobile phones are technically much more complex. The simplicity of an MP3 player allowed Apple to focus on product design and the user interface; in addition to those areas -- where handset vendors already provide significant competition -- Apple will have to work on the technical underpinnings just to make the phone work, and that's an area where it could have some significant issues. There's little doubt that any iPhone would enjoy a significant initial sales pop, but it wouldn't be surprising to see it not be a long-term success, particularly in the mass market. One more significant reason: price. In the US, and many other countries, consumers are conditioned to paying very little for their handsets, thanks to subsidies from mobile operators. Unless Apple can get the iPhone into operators' distribution networks (with most indications that it won't, and will sell the device itself), relatively few consumers will line up to pay a few -- or several -- hundred dollars for it.
Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.
While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.
–The Techdirt Team
Reader Comments
Subscribe: RSS
View by: Time | Thread
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
I'm all for open source, but that makes zero sense. A phone being open source does not automagically make it simple.
Bandwagons are fun to jump on, but at least know ***something*** about it before talking about it. Speaking nonsense about something you don't understand will generally give others a worse opinion.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Treo 650
The interface is not totally braindead, but not as "elegant" as a one button mouse or a "dial" on your mp3 player.
Yeah, the camera stinks. Yeah, it only does 2 GB SD. Yah, no stereo bluetooth. But it does everything else adequately well.
And the new treos have various improvements.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
I'm not really the average Mobile phone user though.
As for the article, the writer cites two "failures": the mac mini and... prices not increasing when Apple sold their computer for $100 more?
Okay, I'm not even going to touch the second one. I think the Mac Mini has been booted out of the limelight because of Mactels. The Mini was proposed as an easy way to wean yourself off of Windows. With the Mactels... why bother? Get the performance of a for-reals Mac and the safety net of Windows.
Couldn't he have come up with something more relevant? Like the Newton?
Anyway, the Apple tax in this case is going to be worth getting a device that has the good ol' Apple commitment to UI and device design, especially in a field of devices that has traditionally lacked good UI (design they do okay on).
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Danno's comment
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Danno
You may not want to feel compelled to replace your handset every six months (a sentiment I would agree with), but the reality is that nothing Apple does is going to shake the control of the cellular network providers...short of Apple installing their own network.
The way this will work is that people will buy the iPhone in droves initially, but then the well will run dry. Apple will release an updated version with 3G and the ability to run third-party apps and all of those early adopters will run for the new device. Although your quest is laudable, Apple is in no way looking to help you keep from having to purchase a new device every six months. They simply want to be the ones to do it.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
And for me, that's part of the problem ... I don't need a digital camera in my phone (in fact, as a consultant I am not permitted to bring my phone into some facilities for the very reason that it has a camera), I don't need a calendar, games, office tools, etc, etc. What I NEED is coverage and clarity. Unfortunately, Apple can't address that issue.
I can see how an integrated DAP would be nice (one less gadget on my "utility belt"), but not essential.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Apple could get it right
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Apple could get it right
Although the iPod has a very tight integration with iTunes it is at least possible to use other software (winamp plugins rock).
Syncing contacts, email and calendar is a pretty big deal. If they make it so that it doesn't work with Outlook (only iCal and whatever else) then it will be doomed to be an accessory for existing mac users with a *few* converts here and there, but nowhere near the widespread adoption of iPods.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Past precedence...
If you beat me up and took my lunch money every day, I am not going to be expecting the next kid to move into your old house to do the same thing. I will likely be quite relieved instead.
Almost everyone I know that has actually paid attention when obtaining their phone is well aware that the phone company is giving you the phone at a loss, but will make that money back and then some later on.
You are effectively taking out a loan that you neither want (and often dont need) to get your phone. Alot of people don't actually like getting treated that way.
I think apple will be an overwhelming success in the cell market if they can seperate the phone from the voice/data provider. I would LOVE to be able to change my portable computer's ISP without having to get a new computer. Same thing with voice. Although, really, I shouldnt need a voice provider if I could use a real voip client on it.
Alas, our own government is killing voip to save the children. But thats for another rant.
You might point to SIM cards, and say "Look, you already CAN" but face it: you still can't get a decent monthly subscription. You either have to sign up for a year or two and face huge termination costs (even though they dont have subsidy reclamation needs...), or you do not get your service.
This is largely due to the low availability of non-provider-bound phones on the market. Consumer put up with the abuse because there is no alternative.
My guess (and nothing more than a guess) is that apple's phone is going to be targeted for breaking down that barrier. Apple's phone could be a success by being the champion that rescues us from the bully.
I have no idea how they can succeed, but I do know that if they take that strategy then even in failing, all cell consumers will be better off.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Hmm, Apple succeeds because MP3 players are simple and since a computers OS is complex then that means that OS X sucks and the iMacs, Macbooks, Power Macs and Minis were designed by somebody else.
Price, that's it! all Apple products are expensive so nobody will buy them that means that Sandisk and Creative are the best mp3 players since they are the cheapest and that is the only reason people will buy them. Nobody will pay for an iPod and those sales figures are a myth.
How did the iPod beat everybody else? Simple it was well designed in software and hardware. How many phones are known for their great software? or are they known only by their style?
Will an iPhone exist? maybe
is this wishfull think? probably
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Coolness factor
There have been phones with iTunes integrated and they have been huge flops (ROKR anyone?) The ability to play music is not a huge selling point for phones. The iPhone will have to bring something really new and different to the cell phone market to distinguish itself.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Coolness factor
That said, key here is a partner or partners in the carrier space, whithout a verizon or cingular, I don't see iPhone going far.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Done.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
A really good point
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
I'm guessing that even if it does, that won't be its selling point and heres why.
VoIP require a reasonably fast data connection. We'll assume wifi. A wifi radio requires a decent amount of power to operate. If the battery life sucks, then it will fail.
The phone will have a chance if it functions well as a phone...with maybe some iTunes/music features...but it will be a phone first. If it is less usable than existing (cheaper/free) phones then *most* aren't going to justify the higher pricetag (rumored at $250). So battery life, and call quality have to be as good or better than existing products. The polished UI will only come into play and justify the price if basic functions are adequate.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
So what
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Open source, anyone?
I did read about people talking about open source phones-- which reminded me of this I read earlier today. Enjoy.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.12/posts.html?pg=2
Is it considered bad form to post a wired link on techdirt? I sure hope not. :)
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
If it breaks the Carriers Hold on Cell Phone
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Good speculation
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
RE RE Jonathon
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Cisco Trumps Jobs
Evidently Cisco ownes the rights due to one of their many purchases. In fact iPhone was rolled out unsuccessfully in 1997 but lost the dial tone. Now they have re-released a working internet wifi kind of thing that looks kind of promising.
Steve Jobs has definitely lost pace with the marketplace on this one. Look for whole slew of replicants to flood the market before Apple gets their stuff together.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]