Another Day, Another Analyst Warns About The iPod

from the on-and-on-and-on dept

Wed, Dec 13th 2006 7:15am — Joseph Weisenthal

Just yesterday we talked about how analysts seem obsessed with calling for the iPod's demise, but for the most part they have little to back up their dire predictions. Some try to use the iTunes store as a proxy for the health of the iPod, which is a misguided approach. Apple also denies that the store is experiencing any weakness. Well, another analyst is out with a new report predicting that sales of the actual device itself will slow considerably in the coming years, as the overall market contracts, and new entrants join the race. This really isn't saying much though. Of course at some point the mp3 player market will reach some level of saturation, and at that point, sales of the iPod will have to slow. It's only a matter of time before this happens, and to predict that it will occur some time in the next few years isn't going very far out on a limb. He also argues that the vaunted iPod lock-in isn't actually so strong; considering that the majority of people's songs aren't being bought through the iTunes store, that may be true. Of course, there's still the large ecosystem of third-party devices and accessories built around the iPod. As we said yesterday, before there's real evidence that iPods are themselves slowing down, or that they soon will, all of these warnings are pure speculation.

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17 Comments

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Anonymous Coward, 13 Dec 2006 @ 7:21am

I have to warn about the iPods demise as well
Or at least my ipod. I havent been able to find my ipod for about two weeks... ever since I got back from vising relatives.. Noone has seen it. I mourn the loss of my iPod. But I'll be happily getting another one for xmas!

Oh, and I still won't be buying any DRM'd crap to go with my ipod. I use it for beatles, bjork and podcasts. I already own the cd for all the beatles and bjork releases, and the podcasts are free.

Hooray to the lack of drm!
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Sanguine Dream, 13 Dec 2006 @ 7:34am

I don't care...
I'm looking to buy an mp3 player (and a DS Lite) as a self gift this Christmas. None of this speculation, hype, or whatever has altered my decision to not buy an iPod. I just don't like the way they look and after using one I don't like the click whell thingy.
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Bumbling old fool, 13 Dec 2006 @ 8:20am

I don't want an iPod killer, I want an iTunes kill
I like my iPod. I think its great. It holds more than I need, the interface is clean enough that I don't need to pay attention, and it was customizable enough that I could put what I wanted easily within reach to make myself more efficient.

What I hate wiht a passion is iTunes. I don't even buy music from Apple, but I just can't fricking stand that miserable app. And GREAT, with each miserable upgrade, the damn thing gets worse.

If someone would just make me an iTunes killer (both mac and windows required) I'd be one happy duckling...
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Santos Escrimér, 13 Dec 2006 @ 8:25am

Dead? Again?
What is it critics and analysts have against Apple Computer and its various products. Everytime there's so much as a fart in the economy it's "Apple doomed" this and "Mac OS to fade" that and "Holy Crap, the iPod is going to be stomped by the Zune." Please. I'm no Apple cheerleader, but has anyone noticed that for all the doom-saying, they continue to be industry and design leaders, producing products that people want to buy? Seems like every three years of so, some Wall Street/Silicon Valley pundit says "Apple products not the best ever in the world," and everyone gasps as if the Emperor really has no clothes--big deal. I'm not saying it's the best of anything but they make a bunch of products people like, so they buy it. And that's the point, right? Make some money off of some fraction of a market. Why is that so hard for people to understand?
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Anonymous Coward, 13 Dec 2006 @ 8:27am

Re: I don't want an iPod killer, I want an iTunes
Then use Ephpod or another program similar to that.
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Bloam E, 13 Dec 2006 @ 8:33am

Bjork?
Bjork? Th Beatles? What a waste of an iPod!

My iPod is chock full of K-Fed...now THAT'S a great use of technology!
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Bumbling old fool, 13 Dec 2006 @ 8:52am

Re: Bjork?
hehehe, I'm so out of touch with the music industry, I don't evenhave a clue who K-Fed is.

I gave up on the music industry years ago, I'd buy indie music, but really, I dont "need" any, so I havent bothered. I guess I'm just a music simpleton.

I will defend to my death my right to waste my ipod with beatles and bjork, and I will sit in blissful ignorance while you do that which you prefer with yours.
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Anonymous Coward, 13 Dec 2006 @ 8:57am

Re: Re: Bjork?
K-Fed? Herb Alpert is the way to go.
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Lazy Coward, 13 Dec 2006 @ 9:04am

Re: Re: Bjork?
K-Fed is Britney Spears Fed-X after a text message. Spears apparently was a hot commodity and rapidly is becoming a laughing stock.

The only thing I have ever bought through the iTunes store is the original pilot to Babylon 5 which is unavailable in that form anywhere else in the US.
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JohnnyZTS, 13 Dec 2006 @ 9:10am

kill them both
Ipod, Itunes I'm tired of them both. After seeing my Son waste his money on three Ipod models and hundreds of songs from Itunes he finally came to his senses and learned to drag and drop to his Sansa E250.
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Big Papa, 13 Dec 2006 @ 9:13am

Sheesh
These analysts all just want to be right so they keep guessing and guessing at the most obvious stuff. Of coarse the iPods's sales will drop. No one doubts this most obvious fact, but the Apple doesn't need to keep up with their current goals for the iPod to be successful. Look at the creative players... They don't sell NEARLY as many as Apple, but they are still successful.

The analysts just keep throwing down guesses all the while preying that the iPod's sales just happen to drop significantly. Then they can claim to be the best analyst ever.

In fact I predict that some day global warming is going to be a big problem... LOOK I'M an ANALYST!!
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anon, 13 Dec 2006 @ 9:25am

techdirt
I have been reading tech dirt for awhile. Did no know you were such an iPod fanboy :)
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Anonymous Coward, 13 Dec 2006 @ 9:49am

yeah, they are fanboys. just like you are a fanboy. everyone is a fanboy. (see my fanboy post on yesterday's ipod article)

now, yeah, the ipod will slow. just like the NES, SNES, N64, sega genesis, sega dreamcast, sega saturn, sony playstation 1 have all faded away. but oh wait...we have the nintendo GC and Wii, we have the PS2 and PS3, we have the...oh yeah it's the xbox and 360 now.

i pod is on what...their 6th generation? or so? and it came out what? 3 years ago? 4? i'm not quite sure. however, yeah, as the market gets saturdated with mp3 players, ipod will come up with larger capacity, more featured ipods (or enhanced on what is available) to make the people go...well my 4th gen is almost filled, the battery is dying, and i have some movies as well. humm...let me get a new 80gb model.

now i'm an apple fanboy, or at least the ipod. why? i like it. i'm used to it. and it does what i want. (plus i spend so much money on accessories, that it'd be stuipd of me to get a zune or creative or w/e) so when my ipod finally failds...guess what i'm gonna get next?
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Antisocial Coward, 13 Dec 2006 @ 10:21am

Re: Re: Re: Bjork?
The whole drunk driving, twat showing, dumb blond, fake tit, drug problem, no talent, lip syncing, porno filming, bling bling wigger, can't rhyme, should not be allowed to reproduce, let alone produce "music", bunch of MTV generation losers, are a laughing stock. And some people idolize them, or even pay to see their pictures in magazines.
Fuck those asshole and all their friends.
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Sumo Monkey, 13 Dec 2006 @ 10:23am

Think "Apple" not "iPod"
Every product reaches the end of its life. It happened to Apple II, the Macintosh, and will happen to the iPod eventually. It does not say much that iPod sales will decline.

The question is, will the eventual decline of the iPod hurt Apple? I really don't think so, because Apple is a great innovator. By the time others out-do the iPod, Apple will change the rules of the game again, so that the competition will look like a lame duck with an outdated product yet again. In fact, adding photo and video capabilities to the iPod is an example of making the original iPod into something other than just an mp3 player. Heck, Apple may decide to kill iPod next year to roll out the next "killer gadget."

So think "Apple", not "iPod". Apple's future matters, iPod's does not.
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Aaron, 13 Dec 2006 @ 1:21pm

Re: Sheesh
It's worth noting (to "Sheesh" and to Techdirt), that analysts observe market trends and report their interpretation to less-informed investors. Of course their findings seem obvious to someone who reads (or writes) tech blogs consistently. But it seems silly to therefore characterize said analyst as another iPod naysayer or a simpleton, particularly when you agree with his conclusions.

My analysis: no story here.
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john ahrends, 15 Mar 2007 @ 9:15am

FANBOY
I love how people throw out the term fanboy when they have nothing constructive to say. It is always the critic that can't be creative that hates creative people. I would much rather be an apple fan (legitimate) than to be one of the many lemmings that follow blindly after M$ because they just don't know how crappy their products are. The only thing that they make that is worth a darn is the XBOX. That thing rarely crashes like their OS. If you don't like Apple products don't buy them. there are enough smart creative people in the world to keep apple pumping out new products.
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