Facebook Would Like To Remind You It Isn't For Sale (Wink Wink), But Is Now Worth $8 Billion
from the economic-indicators dept
It was reported earlier this week that Yahoo was prepared to shell out up to $1.62 billion to buy Facebook, based on the inflated expectation that it could generate a billion-dollar profit by 2015. Apparently Yahoo's offer of $1 billion to Facebook got rejected, and the company never got another chance to bid. While most rational people would have taken the money and ran, Facebook now says it's no longer for sale, with a board member saying they want to build the company up. We'd like to again take this opportunity to point Facebook to the history of Friendster, which is the classic example of not knowing when to sell out -- the company was being shopped around for $5 million earlier this year, after Google had offered to buy it for $30 million worth of pre-IPO stock in late 2003, and a price of $200 million was mentioned for it in 2005. But, true to form, Facebook is following the Skype billion-dollar buyout plan (most recently enlisted by YouTube): a board member says that the company isn't for sale... but that it's worth $8 billion -- as much as that fly-by-night youth-oriented business MTV. Clearly the Skype blowout buyout business model is seeing the effects of inflation (otherwise known as a bubble), which is mildly amusing given talk that Skype is having some trouble meeting the targets to trigger the $1.5 billion earnout that was on top of the $2.6 billion eBay paid for it in cash and stock. Getting the cash up front, then running as far and as fast as you can, really seems like the best play for these companies.Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
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Like we say in MMORPGs
Not exactly sure why this is news anyway, considering they're "not for sale"...
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Bubble 2.0
When it implodes and you are left holding the bag think about what you could have had before your belief that a social networking site would actually change the world.
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Can someone explain how facebook will implode?
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JTS?
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Google
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Winners and losers...
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Re: Bubble 2.0
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Re: Like we say in MMORPGs
Wrong! The price is set by the buyer, i.e. they pay it. The seller can only ask. But that means nothing.
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Facebook: only hype
MediaVidea wrote on the Web 2.0 bubble some days back.
http://mediavidea.blogspot.com/2006/12/why-google-yahoo-and-microsoft-should.html
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Re: Facebook: only hype
If you're comparing Facebook to Friendster, you clearly haven't used Facebook. (or your generation isn't on Facebook :P lol )
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Re: Facebook: only hype
Indeed. If another bubble is emerging then by all indications it will be faster and more explosive than the last, more people will get burned with even larger sums of money being lost when it goes bang.. thus leading to even more distrust and damage of the technology sector. The reason it will be worse this time is because there is even less substance in these hyped enterprises than there was before. At least lastminute.com and those cranky 90's ideas had some tangible merit as business ideas- most of the crap now like YouTube and FaceBook has absolutely no business model other than emo teenagers stuck at home stoned. The moment they try to tap it for revenue it will collapse in a heap.
We have to break this merry-go-round. Business markets that behave like a drug addict in cyclic manic depressioin help nobody but a few lucky people who win the lottery. High follows low follows high - and each time the feeling is that it will be different next time around. Thatcher and LeMont understood this oscillation and tried very hard to break the boom/bust cycles of the 1980s here in the UK. But sustainable growth is anathema to the super-capitalists of today whos shortsightedness extends only as far as making themselves personally as rich as possible and getting out at the top. What the short term capitalists don't get is that a long term series of boom-bust cycles can be *worse* than a zero sum game - you can end up digging your economy further down with each iteration.
A lucky few people will make a huge fortune on FaceBook. Most people will lose a small investment. It's just wealth redistribution.
Net result- fuck all, it's a pointless product that is implicit in computer network systems already and only owes its manifestation to IP manipulation and clever marketing. It is empty, and anyone with a grain of sense can see it. Invest in commodities!
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> in computer network systems already and only owes its
> manifestation to IP manipulation and clever marketing.
> It is empty, and anyone with a grain of sense can see
> it. Invest in commodities!
You mean like, UNIX admins? Or Oracle DBAs? Those are the commodities created by the previous tech bubble.
Noticed how the tech job market has been "coming back" since, oh, six months ago? Much more of this irrational exuberance in the tech market, and most of us will be laid off again like in 3/2001. The lucky ones who get to keep their jobs will then do our work on top of what they already had to do, which is still too much.
So it's a very, very pertinent observation that FaceBook is somewhat exclusive, has a great interface, and might get sold for way more than it's worth IFF those FaceBook dudes would go ahead and agree to trade wampum for cash.
I'm hoping for reason to prevail. I'm also hoping for that monkey to stop pressing the bar that gets him more crack cocaine.
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FACEBOOK(?)
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Facebook launched in February 2004, and the website now has over 13 million registered users across over 40,000 regional, work, college and high school networks. According to comScore, Facebook is the seventh-most trafficked site on the web and is the number one photo-sharing site.
I think they should stay around and develop the company.
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Easy to calculate
let's assume that they can break into non-college markets and double there membership to 50 mill members. then they would be worth 2 billion dollars.
there's absolutely no scenario where they would be worth 8 billion. absolutely none.
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15778463 30-second clips in a year.
$669,767 is the cost of reaching 24 million viewers for 30 seconds.
You have a value of $10,567,893,828,121
Of course this isn't even realistic, but neither is saying that there is no way Facebook can have a value of 8 billion.
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I guess what it all amounts to is Big Profiteering companies, who have young CEO's who want to buy everything that is new (not innovative), just new.
You could also resort to sweatshops in China, and have them create something for less! Wal-Mart!
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Uhhh, facebook is open to everyone...
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We're linking back on our new Chatter Analysis blo
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don't you read what you write
wtf does that mean? what's with the first you?
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Speaking of which....
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