Can Pundits Actually Prognosticate? Answer: Mostly, No
from the nice-to-see-some-lookback dept
I've discussed in the past how loath the tech industry often is to ever look back at analyst "predictions." The big research firms come out with all sorts of ridiculous predictions, and no one ever goes back and figures out how accurate they were. It seems that the same thing is frequently true with political prognosticators, so it's interesting to see a Hamilton College public policy class analyze the predictions of 26 political pundits over the period of 15 months (September 2007 to December 2008) and measure how good the pundits were. It turns out most were "no better than a coin toss." I'm not entirely convinced of the methodology, since it seems to make use of some subjective analysis from the description, but for the politically minded, it's at least interesting to note that the most "accurate" pundits all fall on the left of the traditional political spectrum, while the least successful tended to fall on the right. I do wonder how much of that has to do with the timing (the period covered the financial decline and the Presidential election). It would be interesting to see a similar test run during a different period of time as well. I wonder if a similar analysis, say, prior to the election of a Republican president, would have turned up the opposite results. In other words: was there a fundamental quality in the predictions, or was it just that "the winning team" looks smarter in retrospect? Either way, it's still great that people are going back and looking at how well some of these prognosticators did.
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Filed Under: politics, predictions
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The real lesson here...
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Unskilled and Unaware
There is a fascinating paper (pdf) here:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.64.2655&rep=rep1&type=pdf
It shows how people tend to vastly overestimate their abilities in an area they are unskilled. If you've never read it you should.
Of course seeing as how I'm unskilled in the field of journalism, it's entirely possible I've fallen into my own trap.
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Typo
I think you mean "loath".
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Re: Unskilled and Unaware
This is so true it hurts.
We need to remember that almost all reporters are generalists, which means they're relying on 'sources' to feed them information. Just about anything you read from mainstream sources should be treated as a press release. Because it usually is.
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I predict the world will come to an end in 2012.
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Re:
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And if you haven't figured out by now that neither party is actually looking out for you, you just can't be helped - Me
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Very true. Unfortunately we only have the two parties to choose from so you have to pick one.
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For those who didn't know....
Loath is an adjective meaning "unwilling." It ends with a hard th and rhymes with growth or both.
Loathe is a verb meaning "to hate intensely." It ends with a soft th like the sound in smooth or breathe.
Examples: He was loath to admit that he was included in the deal.
(He was unwilling)
Alex loathes spiders.
(Hates them intensely)
Source: http://englishplus.com/grammar/00000238.htm
Copyright©1997-2006 English Plus, All rights reserved.
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Re: Unskilled and Unaware
Journalism should be the primary major.
To report well on a subject you do not need intimate knowledge. Only need to have a firm grasp of how little you really know.
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Re: For those who didn't know....
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Re: Typo
You are correct. Oops. Fixed.
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Re: Re: Unskilled and Unaware
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Countries With Civilized (i.e. Proportional) Representation Systems ...
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