DailyDirt: The Curse Of Oil

from the urls-we-dig-up dept

Mon, Oct 28th 2013 5:00pm — Michael Ho

Having huge oil reserves can be an economic curse for a developing country. The natural-resource curse often produces oil-rich nations that are ruled by dictators and are so reliant on petroleum that its economic growth is hindered because all other industries are neglected. The prediction of the end of fossil fuels will come true someday, but the exact time of death isn't easy to forecast because improving technology seems to keep extending the useful lifetime of oil. Here are a few links on the topic of planning for a post-oil economy.

Saudi Arabia discovered its oil reserves in 1938, and now oil accounts for 90% of the country's exports and about half of its GDP. By 2030, those oil reserves could start drying up, so the country is starting to look at ways to diversify its economy and create a culture of innovation. Changing an entire country's mindset about work and entrepreneurship isn't exactly a simple task, however. [url]
A recent report predicts that at the current rate of development, global oil will be depleted about 90 years before its replacement technologies are ready. This prediction is based on stock market data, not on any single expert's opinion on the state of alternative energy projects. So will we see the end of oil coming -- and not change our behavior in time? [url]
Norway is one of the few examples of a country that has managed its oil reserves to avoid the natural-resource curse. After Norway discovered it was sitting on about half a trillion dollars worth of black gold, it didn't allow drilling projects to commence at full-speed. By strictly regulating its oil drilling operations, Norway has been able to prevent oil money from destroying its existing industries and economic health. [url]

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Filed Under: energy, fossil fuel, natural resource curse, oil, peak oil, petroleum, predictions

14 Comments

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OldMugwump (profile), 28 Oct 2013 @ 5:29pm

90 years?
90 years?

How can anyone take seriously a prediction that depends on the state of technology 90 years from now?

How much accuracy would you expect from a prediction of 2013 technology made in 1923?

90 years from now people could be colonizing the moons of Saturn and using antimatter power - who the heck can say?

This is just...stupid.
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Anonymous Coward, 28 Oct 2013 @ 6:19pm

meh
Norway is the top in health-care, education, and the economy because of its oil, if it wasn't for the oil it uses to subsidized its public health-care it would be last in Europe
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bigpicture, 28 Oct 2013 @ 6:20pm

Re: 90 years?
Yep, I'll buy that. The so called cold fusion or LENR or whatever other name they want to call it now is just one such technology that could displace a lot of oil in the next ten years. That is if big oil does not buy it up and shelve it.
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Anonymous Coward, 28 Oct 2013 @ 7:26pm

Re: meh
Yeah, Norway was a backwater third world nobody before they found oil in the 60s ...

What are you, a dumbass?
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Lawrence D'Oliveiro, 28 Oct 2013 @ 7:44pm

The Curse Of Nauru
It�s instructive to consider what happened to the Pacific island nation of Nauru. The wealth wasn�t from oil, but from bird guano�the island was covered in the stuff, and it was extremely valuable as fertilizer.

So everybody got rich, and spent up big. I think the place is still full of expensive US-made luxury cars today.

Of course, they were vaguely aware that the guano would run out one day. But the citizens assumed their Government was preparing against that eventuality, while the Government assumed the citizens had the foresight to take care of themselves.

So they woke up one morning to find the money had run out. So Nauru has gone from being filthy rich to being a poor Pacific backwater again.
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anonymouse (profile), 28 Oct 2013 @ 9:23pm

from a research and development view, oil is a liability for the USA. we've pretty much reached the end of exciting hydrocarbon development, but the powerful oil lobby in our gov't tends to displace a distressing amount of potentially viable energy research and development.

i love my internal combustion car (VW Jetta TDI, go diesel!), but am impatient to see some of the other techs emphasized...ie: gen 3 and 4 fission reactors.
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Lawrence D'Oliveiro, 28 Oct 2013 @ 10:45pm

Re: but the powerful oil lobby in our gov't tends to displace a distressing amount
Is this a more subtle version of the idea that the oil companies are secretly suppressing research into alternative energy technologies?
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Earl Richards, 29 Oct 2013 @ 2:11am

Electric Cars
To avoid the gasoline price, rip-off, plug your Tesla S, electric car into your household, solar array.
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Anonymous Coward, 29 Oct 2013 @ 4:45am

Re:
Fission is so yesterday ... and fraught with problems, but let's overlook that because there simply are no other viable alternatives.
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Anonymous Coward, 29 Oct 2013 @ 4:48am

Re: Electric Cars
You still pay for the use of gasoline, in the products you buy and in the pollution caused.
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Anonymous Coward, 29 Oct 2013 @ 5:44am

Re: Re: but the powerful oil lobby in our gov't tends to displace a distressing amount
They don't have to, they have politicians giving them more money in subsidies for oil drilling then we spend on research and development of all alternate sources of fuels combined.

It's really dangerous long term overusing oil. If the entire world went back to burning wood to get heat, the world would run out of trees to burn within a year.
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Anonymous Coward, 29 Oct 2013 @ 6:25am

Re: Re: Re: but the powerful oil lobby in our gov't tends to displace a distressing amount
Well as long as the population keeps growing unchecked at some point not even tech will help us deal with it.
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rawcookie (profile), 29 Oct 2013 @ 10:13am

Re: Re: Electric Cars
The internal combustion engine may not be the best option moving into the future but it did save humanity from a very serious form of pollution. http://www.banhdc.org/archives/ch-hist-19711000.html
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anonymouse (profile), 31 Oct 2013 @ 2:44pm

Re: Re: but the powerful oil lobby in our gov't tends to displace a distressing amount
i wasn't really thinking of secret suppression by the oil companies, i was thinking of the economic principle of crowding out.
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