Connecticut Judge Reverses His Prior Restraint Ruling, But For Reasons He Wants Kept Secret

Netflix CEO Puts An Expiration Date On Traditional Broadcast Television: 2030

from the revolution-is-IP-televised dept

Wed, Dec 3rd 2014 3:56pm — Karl Bode

Netflix's path of disruption has been nothing if not entertaining, whether it's the company's attempt to disrupt antiquated theater release windows with simultaneous theater and streaming releases, or its foray into original content. As Netflix passes the 53.1 million subscriber mark worldwide, it's been equally entertaining to watch the global legacy TV industry stumbling around trying to thwart this inevitable progress, whether it's AMC theaters refusing to carry Netflix's "Crouching Dragon" sequel, the increasingly absurd shenanigans we've seen afoot on the ISP interconnection front, or Australia's attempts to outlaw VPNs.

When it comes to measuring the transition to Internet video, viewer tracking firms like Nielsen have been very happy to ignore data illustrating Netflix's rise -- so broadcast and cable executives are more comfortable with their heads buried deeply in the sand. Speaking in Mexico to promote his company's international expansion efforts, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings this week stated Nielsen's recent announcement to finally track Netflix and Amazon viewers was "not very relevant," since Nielsen still isn't capable of tracking phone and tablet viewing specifically.

Hastings also took the opportunity to offer up his predicted expiration date for the legacy TV industry:

"It's not very relevant," he said. "There's so much viewing that happens on a mobile phone or an iPad that [Nielsen won't] capture."...As for free-to-air TV, Hastings believes its days are numbered. "It's kind of like the horse, you know, the horse was good until we had the car," he said. "The age of broadcast TV will probably last until 2030."

Maybe, maybe not. There have been significant strides in getting broadcasters to loosen up licensing rights for live TV streaming, and that's going to result in a slew of standalone streaming services launching in 2015 from the likes of Dish Networks, HBO, Showtime, Sony and Verizon Wireless. Netflix, Amazon and company have also been making great strides in developing original content that doesn't suck, from Netflix's "House of Cards," to Amazon's "Transparent." Even the industry analysts that used to mock and deny the cord cutting trend have finally, quietly, acknowledged the trend is real.

That said, the incumbent gatekeepers won't magically disappear as IP television becomes the norm. Whether it's the allegations they're intentionally throttling interconnection points, attempts to regulate Netflix to death, or the use of usage caps to protect TV revenues, there's every indication they're not going to be taking the transition gracefully. The industry's core strategy at the moment is to use regulatory to ride the legacy cash cow right into the ground with a series of endless rate hikes for massive channel bundles, then complain vocally when users fail to see the value in that equation.

Only when consumers begin to cut the cord en masse will the cable industry finally respond to consumer demands for things like cheaper, a la carte content -- probably right around the year 2029.

Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.

Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.

While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.

–The Techdirt Team

Filed Under: broadcast tv, reed hastings, tv
Companies: netflix

32 Comments

If you liked this post, you may also be interested in...

Reader Comments

Subscribe: RSS

View by: Time | Thread

Anonymous Coward, 3 Dec 2014 @ 4:08pm

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
As convenient as Netflix is, it's nice to be able to grab signals OTA without having my viewing history recorded and bound to my personal profile in perpetuity.

Not that's there's much worth watching anyway.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 3 Dec 2014 @ 4:19pm

I haven't watched broadcast TV in 7 years. I get everything through downloading/streaming.
Damn! 2030 used to look like such a futuristic utopian date back in the days, and now, well be there in another 15 years.
I feel so young now.....where's my Flintstones car that flies like the Jetson's one?
And my teleportation pods?
And my renewable energy for the whole planet?
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 3 Dec 2014 @ 5:08pm

I don't really care. I cut the cord over a decade ago, not seeing value for my money spent. I no longer have any connection to broadcast tv nor cable. Because of that I no longer desire to know what idiot is doing in what show. Programming quality had already cratered back then and hasn't gotten better.

Maybe one of the greatest benefits besides the time to spend on something else not wasted as a couch potato, is the relief of the continual commercial and product placement. If any advertisement manages to break my attention, next time I'm in the store, if that product did it, I will look for something else I don't have to pay as much for them making commercials over it. That added cost does nothing for making the product better, which is why I will chose something that works over something more expensive that doesn't or is so watered down that it isn't worth getting.

I'm not holding my breath waiting on Neilson to capture that data either. I simply don't care.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Mason Wheeler (profile), 3 Dec 2014 @ 5:09pm

It's kind of like the horse, you know, the horse was good until we had the car," he said. "The age of broadcast TV will probably last until 2030."

I'm not so sure. By similar logic, you could easily say that the radio was good up until we had the television. And hey, when was the last time you listened to such an antiquated device as the radio?

Oh, right. Just this morning, for me at least, even though television has been around (without destroying radio broadcasting) for far longer than streaming has.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 3 Dec 2014 @ 5:18pm

When Netflix starts airing The Walking Dead on Sunday at 9 on my 43" screen, I'll start taking them seriously. I have no desire to watch full-length movies on my cell phone. Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of improvement to be made in the TV world. But Netflix has a ways to go before it makes me cut the cord.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
jackn, 3 Dec 2014 @ 6:03pm

here's mine PRE diction

1996
[ link to this | view in thread ]
DB (profile), 3 Dec 2014 @ 6:25pm

"..no desire to watch full-length movies on my cell phone"

Hmmm, this household's mobile devices 345E all have higher resolution than the best TV.

And the new ones can output mini-HDMI or MHL to the TV if needed. And DLNA, Miracast etc.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 3 Dec 2014 @ 6:42pm

Re:
I think the horse is general broadcasting (radio or TV) rather than ala carte internet offerings. Streaming is eating into both markets. (I for one don't use either conventional radio or TV at this point).
[ link to this | view in thread ]
sorrykb (profile), 3 Dec 2014 @ 7:09pm

Netflix CEO Puts An Expiration Date On Traditional Broadcast Television: 2030

So... how many more CSI spinoffs will that leave us?
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Lurker Keith, 3 Dec 2014 @ 8:15pm

Re:
I used my game console (doesn't matter which one, now) to watch Netflix on my TV. & I saw at least one website say Walking Dead is already on it. So, just boot up the gaming system around 9. Granted, this assumes you already have the 43" TV.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 4 Dec 2014 @ 1:01am

Here's my expiration date on Reed Hasting's stock price: 86 days.

My prediction will be closer than his. That says it all.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 4 Dec 2014 @ 2:30am

Re:
You know what I miss? Radio plays and dramas. Screw music, forget news and sports, it was audiobooks before there were audiobooks, and superior in every way :D

Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy is easily my favourite, and honestly, it saddens me that Radio Drama's stopped being a thing before I was even born. Sometimes I just want something in the background while I work or do something else. Love Radio Drama's for that.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Dangleberry the Occasionally Confused, 4 Dec 2014 @ 3:04am

Re: Re:
I take it you don't listen to BBC Radio 4 then. HG2G was written for Radio 4 and they have dramas on all the time. A lot of it is available on podcast.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/programmes/genres/drama/player
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 4 Dec 2014 @ 4:34am

Re: Re:
podcasts are your friend. there are so many great ones out now doing exactly what you want. take a look around, you'll find some good stuff.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 4 Dec 2014 @ 4:36am

I would actually like for the tech companies to re-embrace antenna TV. put that in our phones and computers, make it so we are once again able to get broadcast, not just cable/satellite tv.

I think if it was easier to get 'free' tv, more people would, and would be less likely to buy expensive tv packages from cable.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Michael, 4 Dec 2014 @ 5:15am

Re:
I have several Smart TV's (which still sort of suck) and a couple of Chromecast's.

I like the Chromecast's - anything I can find on my android phone can pretty much just be cast up onto the TV.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
JEDIDIAH, 4 Dec 2014 @ 5:40am

Done already.
> airing The Walking Dead on Sunday at 9 on my 43" screen,

I can already do this with my 10ft projector.

Netflix isn't the one doing it, but it's already done.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Matthew A. Sawtell, 4 Dec 2014 @ 6:08am

Over the Air TV to die in 16 years? Nope...
Given that while the numbers look a bit 'rosy' (low population sample for my tastes), it is still is not 100%...

http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2014/acs/acs-28.pdf

... so these sorts of predictions should be taken with a good degree salt.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
John85851 (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 6:58am

Not everyone is a cord-cutter
Of course we're saying we're cutting the cord since this site is full of tech people. ;)

But how about your parents or grandparents who still watch Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune, the evening news, and NCIS? Do you think they'll want to give up the convenience of just turning on the TV and changing the channel? (And chances are good that they haven't even heard of Game of Thrones or HBOGo).
So until someone can convince all these people that NetFlix or Amazon is an easier way to watch Wheel of Fortune, then there will always be corded TV.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
John Fenderson (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 7:57am

Re:
I'm far from young, but I too haven't watched any broadcast TV (OTA or cable) in a decade or so.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
John Fenderson (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 7:58am

Re:
My family has been watching Netflix on a big screen TV for years, using an old Wii.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
John Fenderson (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 8:00am

Re: Not everyone is a cord-cutter
"Do you think they'll want to give up the convenience of just turning on the TV and changing the channel?"

There are many inexpensive devices that give them just this level of convenience, so they don't have to give it up at all.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Anonymous Coward, 4 Dec 2014 @ 8:21am

OTA Second Wind
One of the biggest complaints about TV is the poor quality of current content. Well, a lot of the older content, often in monochrome, where actors/actresses could actually act and stories that were enjoyable, is becoming available on the "new" networks like RetroTV, MeTV etc. A number of these networks are available through digital sub-channels from the major OTA broadcasters. I will speculate that there will be a second-wind for OTA TV due to these networks. It wouldn't surprise me if, in the not too distant future, the new networks brought in more cash to the OTA stations than the "main" network offerings.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Baron von Robber, 4 Dec 2014 @ 8:27am

Re:
To paraphrase Lewis Black:

"When I was young, they said, 'This sucks! But wait, in the future, things will be great!' But now, this is my fucking future! And it blows chunks."
[ link to this | view in thread ]
jupiterkansas (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 9:33am

Re:
Broadcast television is significantly more expensive to produce than radio, so I don't expect it to last in the same way that radio has done.

At the same time, I haven't listened to radio or had cable for over 15 years now. The ipod and now Spotify were great replacements for radio.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
jupiterkansas (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 9:36am

Re: Not everyone is a cord-cutter
A lot of those people won't be around in 2030.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
jupiterkansas (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 9:38am

Re: OTA Second Wind
And some of that stuff is on Netflix too - with no commercials and you can choose your which episode you want to watch (or binge on all of them). OTA is not superior in this regard.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
John Fenderson (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 9:45am

Re: Re: OTA Second Wind
OTA is inferior, not just for the reasons that you correctly point out, but also because the quality of the video in OTA broadcasts (at least in the region I live in) has fallen to the point where it is very annoying to watch since the digital switchover happened. Broadcasters would have to do something about that, too.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
jupiterkansas (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 10:14am

Re: Re: Re: OTA Second Wind
Where I live, broadcast TV has never looked better, nor have I ever had so many channels to choose from, but's still not enough to get me to watch it with all its infernal commercials.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
John Fenderson (profile), 4 Dec 2014 @ 10:26am

Re: Re: Re: Re: OTA Second Wind
Yes, the broadcast quality is determined by the broadcasters themselves by how heavily they compress the signal. The more they subdivide the channel, the heavier the compression needs to be. Apparently, all the broadcasters around here have decided to maximize the subchannels and sacrifice video quality.

Of course, this is based on seeing OTA when I'm at friend's houses. I maintain households in two different cities, and in neither of them can I actually get any usable OTA signals at all since the digital switchover happened.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
Andrew D. Todd, 4 Dec 2014 @ 2:34pm

The Future of Broadcasting is in Space
Well, myself, I unplugged back in 1991. Or, more precisely, I moved across the country, and didn't think it worthwhile to get cable service again.

I expect that satellite broadcasting will continue to overwhelm both local terrestrial broadcasting, and broadcasting through cable networks. There will be more satellites, controlled from other countries. Many of them will not require decoders, or pay royalties for the material they transmit. They will be pirate satellites, in short. Satellite dish antennas will be replaced by phased-array antennas, with an angular resolution of a degree or so, allowing a very large number of satellites to fit overhead. Such antennae will become obligatory, as foreign satellites move to within five degrees or so of American satellites. The United States Government did not ask the Soviet Russian government whether it wanted Russians to be able to listen to Voice of America radio, and I anticipate that foreigners will return the compliment. The comparative advantage of terrestrial broadcasting over satellite broadcasting is local programming, only there isn't very much local programming, and what there is, isn't very good. I think that American satellite broadcasters will be forced to conform to the terms set by their foreign counterparts, and their transmissions will no longer require decoders either. I further anticipate that television audiences will use digital video recorders (DVR's)-- under their own control, and not that of the broadcast networks-- to build up large personal video libraries at negligible expense. Both Comcast and Netflix will find it very difficult to compete with this flood of material.

The beauty of space is that it is a legal no-man's land.

Once the illusion of video wealth is punctured, ComCast and AT&T will begin following the real money. The real money is in food, whether in the form of groceries or in the form of pizza. Unlike durable goods, food doesn't stay bought. It gets consumed. The internet battles of the near future will not be fought over large quantities of data. They will be fought over shopping lists of a thousand bytes or so.
[ link to this | view in thread ]
David Morris, 26 Sep 2016 @ 8:44am

Well, I think it is an impressive information which have never been shared before and I am glad to read this post.
[ link to this | view in thread ]