You're talking about capitalistic entities whose modus operandi is to kill the other guys and take their customers away. They're not set up to cooperate.
But their competitive mindset, combined with consumer confusion and preference for just the very biggest services (where they can find enough content not to bother with the rest) points to a likely conclusion: there will be a small number of very large global streaming companies that end up with all the content, because they will drive everyone else who produces or distributes content under, and then buy up the useful parts.
Like the way Fox is being broken up with Disney most likely buying the parts they can use to assemble into their own global streaming behemoth of the future.
Piracy doesn't really matter since this is a battle over the paying customers. If someone doesn't want to pay for content, so be it. Why fight over that person?
Netflix has 117 million customers willing to pay, Amazon has maybe 26 million who watch their video, Hulu has 17 million, all those numbers will grow. The way to make those numbers grow: exclusive content. It gives a person a reason to opt for this service over that. The strategy works, it will continue.
Re: Manifestly, only thing that doesn't drive some to piracy is giving away all for free.
The economics of streaming only work at huge global scale. At some point, efficiencies of scale will kick in for Netflix and they can keep ramping up customers without ramping up content costs at the same rate.
But Netflix's scheme has never been tried, so how do you know if it will work? We'll know it has failed when they go out of business. Until then...who knows.
Netflix and Amazon ARE content providers and you apparently do pay directly for their service. CBS's goal is to become more attractive than those so you will switch. There's nothing tried and true about Netflix and Amazon. They've only been in this business a few years.
Oh I don't know. At global scale, the services won't have much need to jack up prices and the ease of switching will inhibit excess greed. As libraries s
Remember, cable behaves badly because they have monopoly power and don't have to do things like make it easy for customers to switch between services.
Sadly since cable can morph into the iSP business, we can't shake those morons loose...
All these streaming services aren't going to survive the coming nasty shakeout period. Having a favorite show might get them sampled but what keeps people subscribing is having a huge library that is too attractive to give up.
If CBS is going to make a go of this, they need a lot more than one stupid series, even one with the Star Trek label slapped on. They need to develop a whole lot more, direct for streaming, not crap ported over from broadcast, because people have higher standards for streaming than a lot of vanilla broadcast shows.
If CBS is smart, they will understand this and realize it will take them years to build up their service. Probably need a few Star Trek series on concurrently and a whole lot more stuff. I have heard they're developing a couple streaming only series, and they do sound more Netflix like than CBS like, so that's a start.
"The list of shows I want to watch is already too long."
LOL same here. FX is having a fit at Netflix so they're yanking all their shows. I just noticed Louie is leaving at the end of Oct. Dammit and I never got a chance to watch it...in the two freaking years that I had in on my queue...what are the odds I'd watch it in the next two freaking years or ever?
Take it away FX. Thanks for helping me manage the chaos.
It would not be better for CBS to put their content on Netflix and Amazon. Then they help Netflix and Amazon grow into global behemoths who have sequestered the entire paying audience for streaming - theoretically a billion people and growing - in their own walled gardens. Then when CBS wants to put their little Star Trek show on Netflix or Amazon, who do you think will have all the negotiating power then? The people with a database full of a billion credit card numbers they hit for ten bucks each month, that's who.
A little piracy is a small price for CBS to pay to avoid the terrible fate of the mere content producer in the future, competing with the myriad of other content producers desperate for distribution, and make a play to become one of the global behemoths who call all the shots. There's a lot at stake here, which is why everything has gone nuts.
The only reason we are getting Star Trek at all is because CBS wants to make a play in the streaming market.
Let them fight and knock each other off. We'll end up with just a few because of competitive pressure. Bigness is what people want in a service. They want a huge library and range of choice. This will result in a few big fish that gobble the smaller fish.
We're still in the insane-proliferation phase of streaming, where all the contenders throw their hat in the ring and try to battle it out.
But as you can attest, subscribers aren't interested in two dozen services. They will subscribe to one to three and then most stop. And they all want the same thing in those few services: cheap price, huge libraries and buzzy shows everyone is talking about.
So whoever is biggest now will just get bigger. We're nearing the point where the cutoff is going to be locked in and a very small number of services will keep growing while the rest go extinct.
Netflix seems sure to be a winner. Amazon will be unless Bezos gets mad his people never deliver that GoT show he wants. Unlike the others, Amazon doesn't need video and could just bail on it. Disney is going to be in the winners circle on brand prowess alone. Never bet against Disney.
There's room for maybe one other. Choose between: Hulu, HBO, Apple (depending on what the heck they are doing) and heck I'll toss CBS in there. They have moxie.
And then there's the likes of Fox and Comcast/NBC, which seem stuck in head-in-ground mode. I don't think Hulu is going to make it. Disney/ABC will pull out of the consortium in favor of their own service, which leaves Fox and NBC to go it alone and it's too late to start.
Those few huge winners will grow into global behemoths. The potential number of streaming customers in the world is one billion and rising. That is one hell of a lot of money, especially when you realize, the streaming services get paid directly, no distribution or advertising middlemen taking a cut. No wonder the activity is frantic.
Re: Netflix doesn't publish ratings because they don't need to
Netflix can judge how well a show supports this subscriber loyalty in various ways, like seeing what a new subscriber watches right after they sign up, or which show they are in the midst of watching when they decide not to cancel after their free trial month runs out. If the same shows seem correlated with positive subscription activity, those shows are the golden geese that are paying their way on the site.
I suspect this data, which we'll never see and which it will be hard for snoopy research companies to ever discover, is behind Netflix's recalibration towards TV series and away from movies. TV series are just "stickier" when it comes to keeping people subscribing, because at any given time, there's going to be another episode you need to watch to see what happens and another and another...and this is also why the old episodic style of TV will be a small minority of streaming series. There may be a few anthologies but mostly we'll get heavily serialization.
Well except the corporate suckers have the sense to just do pay-per-click ad deals and then track "conversions" (does the click result in somebody doing what you want, usually typing in a credit card number?) Corporations that have nobody managing the online ad buys are definitely suckers, but how many of them are not paying attention vs. the ones who pay close attention? The real losers when advertising is ineffective, which it usually is, are the websites and other businesses that depend on ad revenue for survival. I'm constantly amazed more haven't gone under. I guess they pay their writers peanuts.
What happens when Netflix funds an original like Jessica Jones and doesn't license it to Amazon? That's legit, right? They made the show, they should keep it.
Well this is where it's all going. Streaming services will drive cable and broadcast under by stealing their customers. So then how will new shows get made? They'll all be Netflix or Amazon or HBO originals. How can you go after them for "antitrust" then? Does Ford allow Chevy dealerships to sell their cars?
Exclusive content will last. The insane number of services won't. A crash is coming that consolidates the services down to 3 or 4 majors that keep growing into global behemoths. Cable and broadcast will go under.
Who is going to produce shows then? The surviving streaming services will produce them as originals. And of course they will be exclusive to each service. They're not going to share nicely! Why should they? They will have tens or hundreds of millions of global subscribers and ALL the power then. Bwhahaha!
No wonder everyone wants to try to be one of the winners. Most will fail but if they don't try, they KNOW they're screwed!
I'm waiting out the crazy-proliferation and crash/consolidation phases by hanging onto Netflix DVD service. I gotta get pretty esoteric to find something they don't have, and for Adventure Time beyond season 2, there's always the local library.
Who the heck has the money to accomplish that at this late date? Apple? Google? Why not Disney. I'm sort of amazed they aren't using their billions to compete with Netflix. They'd be one of the few companies that stand a chance of success.
We're in a crazy-growth phase of the transition into streaming as the dominant distribution medium for global entertainment (outside movie theaters). This will be followed by a crash as consumers get fed up of looking everywhere for content they want, and just opt for one or two of the biggest services with the most stuff. (Or piracy, but that will be neutral in this game since it doesn't send money to one of the major players who stand to win or lose.)
This will result in a virtuous cycle for a few services above a pretty high threshold and a vicious cycle for the rest. Netflix is assured to be above that threshold. Ditto for Amazon, maybe HBO, possibly Hulu, beyond that who knows. I don't begrudge CBS its bid to join the winner's circle using their best brand for this purpose, Star Trek. They probably will fail and Star Trek will end up being made for licensing to Netflix or Amazon.
All the players understand that the power will be in distribution and the direct relationship with the consumer (and their juicy credit card) rather than content creation, which will proliferate beyond even today's crazy level and result in a few distributors who can afford to be very picky and cheap when it comes to what content they want to pick up. When those distributors control access to the audience, everyone will finally understand that content is NOT king.
On the post: The Rise In Streaming Video Exclusives Could Annoy Consumers, Driving Them Back To Piracy
Re:
On the post: The Rise In Streaming Video Exclusives Could Annoy Consumers, Driving Them Back To Piracy
Re: Entertainers Assemble!
But their competitive mindset, combined with consumer confusion and preference for just the very biggest services (where they can find enough content not to bother with the rest) points to a likely conclusion: there will be a small number of very large global streaming companies that end up with all the content, because they will drive everyone else who produces or distributes content under, and then buy up the useful parts.
Like the way Fox is being broken up with Disney most likely buying the parts they can use to assemble into their own global streaming behemoth of the future.
On the post: The Rise In Streaming Video Exclusives Could Annoy Consumers, Driving Them Back To Piracy
Netflix has 117 million customers willing to pay, Amazon has maybe 26 million who watch their video, Hulu has 17 million, all those numbers will grow. The way to make those numbers grow: exclusive content. It gives a person a reason to opt for this service over that. The strategy works, it will continue.
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re: Manifestly, only thing that doesn't drive some to piracy is giving away all for free.
But Netflix's scheme has never been tried, so how do you know if it will work? We'll know it has failed when they go out of business. Until then...who knows.
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re: Oh Hells no
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re: Re: this is bigger than piracy
Remember, cable behaves badly because they have monopoly power and don't have to do things like make it easy for customers to switch between services.
Sadly since cable can morph into the iSP business, we can't shake those morons loose...
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re: Re: Good thing
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re:
If CBS is smart, they will understand this and realize it will take them years to build up their service. Probably need a few Star Trek series on concurrently and a whole lot more stuff. I have heard they're developing a couple streaming only series, and they do sound more Netflix like than CBS like, so that's a start.
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re: I'm not really bothered by this
LOL same here. FX is having a fit at Netflix so they're yanking all their shows. I just noticed Louie is leaving at the end of Oct. Dammit and I never got a chance to watch it...in the two freaking years that I had in on my queue...what are the odds I'd watch it in the next two freaking years or ever?
Take it away FX. Thanks for helping me manage the chaos.
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re: Re: Is it a bad thing?
A little piracy is a small price for CBS to pay to avoid the terrible fate of the mere content producer in the future, competing with the myriad of other content producers desperate for distribution, and make a play to become one of the global behemoths who call all the shots. There's a lot at stake here, which is why everything has gone nuts.
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re: Is it a bad thing?
Let them fight and knock each other off. We'll end up with just a few because of competitive pressure. Bigness is what people want in a service. They want a huge library and range of choice. This will result in a few big fish that gobble the smaller fish.
On the post: As 'Star Trek: Discovery' Shows, The Streaming Exclusivity Wars Risk Driving Users Back To Piracy
Re:
But as you can attest, subscribers aren't interested in two dozen services. They will subscribe to one to three and then most stop. And they all want the same thing in those few services: cheap price, huge libraries and buzzy shows everyone is talking about.
So whoever is biggest now will just get bigger. We're nearing the point where the cutoff is going to be locked in and a very small number of services will keep growing while the rest go extinct.
Netflix seems sure to be a winner. Amazon will be unless Bezos gets mad his people never deliver that GoT show he wants. Unlike the others, Amazon doesn't need video and could just bail on it. Disney is going to be in the winners circle on brand prowess alone. Never bet against Disney.
There's room for maybe one other. Choose between: Hulu, HBO, Apple (depending on what the heck they are doing) and heck I'll toss CBS in there. They have moxie.
And then there's the likes of Fox and Comcast/NBC, which seem stuck in head-in-ground mode. I don't think Hulu is going to make it. Disney/ABC will pull out of the consortium in favor of their own service, which leaves Fox and NBC to go it alone and it's too late to start.
Those few huge winners will grow into global behemoths. The potential number of streaming customers in the world is one billion and rising. That is one hell of a lot of money, especially when you realize, the streaming services get paid directly, no distribution or advertising middlemen taking a cut. No wonder the activity is frantic.
On the post: Traffic Is Fake, Audience Numbers Are Garbage, And Nobody Knows How Many People See Anything
Re: Netflix doesn't publish ratings because they don't need to
I suspect this data, which we'll never see and which it will be hard for snoopy research companies to ever discover, is behind Netflix's recalibration towards TV series and away from movies. TV series are just "stickier" when it comes to keeping people subscribing, because at any given time, there's going to be another episode you need to watch to see what happens and another and another...and this is also why the old episodic style of TV will be a small minority of streaming series. There may be a few anthologies but mostly we'll get heavily serialization.
On the post: Traffic Is Fake, Audience Numbers Are Garbage, And Nobody Knows How Many People See Anything
Re: Shhhhh!!!
On the post: As Netflix Locks Down Exclusive Disney Rights, The New Walled Gardens Emerge
Re: Antitrust?
Well this is where it's all going. Streaming services will drive cable and broadcast under by stealing their customers. So then how will new shows get made? They'll all be Netflix or Amazon or HBO originals. How can you go after them for "antitrust" then? Does Ford allow Chevy dealerships to sell their cars?
On the post: As Netflix Locks Down Exclusive Disney Rights, The New Walled Gardens Emerge
Re:
Who is going to produce shows then? The surviving streaming services will produce them as originals. And of course they will be exclusive to each service. They're not going to share nicely! Why should they? They will have tens or hundreds of millions of global subscribers and ALL the power then. Bwhahaha!
No wonder everyone wants to try to be one of the winners. Most will fail but if they don't try, they KNOW they're screwed!
On the post: As Netflix Locks Down Exclusive Disney Rights, The New Walled Gardens Emerge
Re: Not me
On the post: As Netflix Locks Down Exclusive Disney Rights, The New Walled Gardens Emerge
Re: Re:
On the post: As Netflix Locks Down Exclusive Disney Rights, The New Walled Gardens Emerge
it's a passing phase
This will result in a virtuous cycle for a few services above a pretty high threshold and a vicious cycle for the rest. Netflix is assured to be above that threshold. Ditto for Amazon, maybe HBO, possibly Hulu, beyond that who knows. I don't begrudge CBS its bid to join the winner's circle using their best brand for this purpose, Star Trek. They probably will fail and Star Trek will end up being made for licensing to Netflix or Amazon.
All the players understand that the power will be in distribution and the direct relationship with the consumer (and their juicy credit card) rather than content creation, which will proliferate beyond even today's crazy level and result in a few distributors who can afford to be very picky and cheap when it comes to what content they want to pick up. When those distributors control access to the audience, everyone will finally understand that content is NOT king.
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