Yes, and you just KNOW that we'll use such a system knowing that it will make the problem worse. I also sometimes wonder what our species would be like if puberty came a little later, when we were more mentally mature.
It's a pity that wishful thinking is my strongest suit.
In a word, "yes". The theory of self-fulfilling prophecies actually is a corollary to the observer effect. These predictions could even lead to that unrest becoming worse than it otherwise would.
For instance, let's say you're a dictator, and your computer tells you that the people will rebel next year. So you beef up your army and clamp down on civilians. As a result, the people will get angrier faster.
It doesn't seem to matter any way. Do you remember this?
"Red sky in morning, sailor's warning. Red sky at night, sailor's delight."
Ignoring for the moment that the sky is always red now, the fact that computers can now reliably predict the weather four to five times farther in advance than that old adage might indicate that computer predictions of civil unrest, if similar improvements were made, could be useful.
Unfortunately, we already know that it won't. For instance, we've known for 100 years that current conservative economic policies are bad for the country, and even though we threw Republicans out of government in 2008, we're still following conservative policies today. We knew 80 years ago that prohibition would lead to a huge and expensive increase in violent crime. We knew 60 years ago that increases in atmospheric pollution would result in higher and expensive increases in temperature. We knew 40 years ago that plastics and many unnatural chemicals would build up the bodies of every human being on the planet.
The most accurate prediction is of no use if we choose to ignore it.
Anyone who can read the unemployment rate or compare average incomes in percentiles can predict political unrest. It might be a little bit harder to pin down when people will rebel against a dictator, but sudden changes in economic conditions that increase poverty ALWAYS precede political unrest. It was true in Tunisia, it was true in Egypt, it was true in Greece, it was true in the rest of Europe, and it's true here in the U.S.
But perhaps the morons in the U.S. government need a computer to tell them what everybody else already knows: THEY'RE DOING IT WRONG.
Techdirt has not posted any stories submitted by EveningStarNM.
Re: Re: Re: The Thomas theorem
It's a pity that wishful thinking is my strongest suit.
Re: The Thomas theorem
For instance, let's say you're a dictator, and your computer tells you that the people will rebel next year. So you beef up your army and clamp down on civilians. As a result, the people will get angrier faster.
Re: Infinite Monkey Theory
Re: Re: It's not like it takes any intelligence
"Red sky in morning, sailor's warning. Red sky at night, sailor's delight."
Ignoring for the moment that the sky is always red now, the fact that computers can now reliably predict the weather four to five times farther in advance than that old adage might indicate that computer predictions of civil unrest, if similar improvements were made, could be useful.
Unfortunately, we already know that it won't. For instance, we've known for 100 years that current conservative economic policies are bad for the country, and even though we threw Republicans out of government in 2008, we're still following conservative policies today. We knew 80 years ago that prohibition would lead to a huge and expensive increase in violent crime. We knew 60 years ago that increases in atmospheric pollution would result in higher and expensive increases in temperature. We knew 40 years ago that plastics and many unnatural chemicals would build up the bodies of every human being on the planet.
The most accurate prediction is of no use if we choose to ignore it.
Re: Re: It's not like it takes any intelligence
It's not like it takes any intelligence
But perhaps the morons in the U.S. government need a computer to tell them what everybody else already knows: THEY'RE DOING IT WRONG.
Techdirt has not posted any stories submitted by EveningStarNM.
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