The music industry is in a deep economic quagmire and it really needs to pick itself up by recognizing and eradicating its most fundamental flaws. They stem mostly from the past greedy business practices of labels where they successfully manipulated the industry to conform to draconian album pricing. As Mike correctly points out, the industry has reshaped the 4 cost structure and the labels will need to radically adjust their cost structure if they are survive in the coming years. Meanwhile, most people are still 'ripping' music from piracy sites rather than purchasing music from legal sites because they continue to see the pricing (a-la-cart or subscription) as unfair and inconvenient.
What I think is going to happen in the next few years will depend on the following variables and assumptions:
- Most people will never pay for music -- they will want to continue to discover new music and shun paying for popular music (i.e. signed artists).
- Major labels will continue to downsize and focus more on developing more commercially viable artists in most markets (but not all).
- Smaller labels will emerge with lower cost structure BUT still without the ability to take their artists to 'new levels.'
- Most artists will continue to struggle to market themselves even with all the online tools and services available on Internet.
As a result, major labels will end up catering to the mass-market music tastes while smaller labels and online sites will continue to feed new music to those people who have the time and love to discover and enjoy new music.
Artists will have to decide what kind of artists they want to be. Britney Spears, Bjork, or someone talented and obscure.
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Overall Comment
What I think is going to happen in the next few years will depend on the following variables and assumptions:
- Most people will never pay for music -- they will want to continue to discover new music and shun paying for popular music (i.e. signed artists).
- Major labels will continue to downsize and focus more on developing more commercially viable artists in most markets (but not all).
- Smaller labels will emerge with lower cost structure BUT still without the ability to take their artists to 'new levels.'
- Most artists will continue to struggle to market themselves even with all the online tools and services available on Internet.
As a result, major labels will end up catering to the mass-market music tastes while smaller labels and online sites will continue to feed new music to those people who have the time and love to discover and enjoy new music.
Artists will have to decide what kind of artists they want to be. Britney Spears, Bjork, or someone talented and obscure.
Techdirt has not posted any stories submitted by jon_sf.
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