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us1jacck

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  • Oct 15th, 2016 @ 9:22pm

    (untitled comment)

    This poll was an outlier for Obama in 2012 at 3.32%. The actual result was 3.85%. They have tried to capture a different electorate to the 2012 electorate. Time will tell if they have predicted accurately a massive poll fail, like 2016 Brexit referendum vote and the 2015 UK general election - both 6 -8 out. It's possible this year than men including young black men will vote Trump. It's a nuance of the populist Trump that could see voting patterns scrambled a bit. Also, you might see men generally not voting for an older woman. The LA Times poll is creative. They will be geniuses if they are right or they will look very silly if they are wrong. It's clear that at Trump +4 or more in this poll, Trump is likely tied or leading. The poll has been Trump +7 until the 1st debate and sex tape, etc and is now a tie. It has moved like all polls. The question up for grabs is who has the right level. This poll or all the others. The other polls do appear more volatile, producing unbelievable short term swings. This poll has never done that. This poll is currently Trump + 0.1%.,it has been Clinton +4.7 in early August. If it slips back to Trump up and not further toward Clinton post allegations of groping by Trump, I'd be a tad eerily perturbed if I was a Clinton supporter. This poll may have missed this time trying to capture something different but it got it seriously right almost on it's own in 2012.

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