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  Scott, 25 Sep 2001 @ 10:26am

  
  

  Something very interesting that we should understa

  For those who do not know him, Col. Charlie Precourt is an veteran Air Force
  Pilot and astronaut flying on STS-55, STS-71 ,and Commander of STS-84 and
  STS-91. Please see his note at the start about the author of this letter,
  Tony Kern.
  
  This puts into perspective how grave this situation really is.
  
  
  ----Original Message-----
  From: PRECOURT, CHARLES J., COL. (CHARLIE) (JSC-CB) (NASA)
  Sent: Tuesday, September 18, 2001 10:24 PM
  Subject: FW: The unspoken resolve: US vs. terrorists
  
  
  You all are probably tired of seeing forwarded e-mails on the terrorist
  situation...but this one is written by Tony Kern, the guy who wrote
  "Redefining Airmanship" and has been to visit us a couple of times as a
  guest speaker. It is thought provoking and worth the read.
  Charlie
  
  Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of
  military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written an
  "open letter to Americans." Please share it if you feel so moved.
  Tony
  
  
  Dear friends and fellow Americans 14 September, 2001
  
  Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's
  attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from surprise.
  As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a
  different perspective and I think you should hear it. This war will be won
  or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers.
  Let me briefly explain.
  
  In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us, this
  act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss
  them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was
  committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take
  this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics,
  but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made
  with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it
  was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because
  we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we
  think this war is over, just like my father's generation had to do with the
  formidable Japanese in the years following WW II.
  
  These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not
  underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the
  world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral is
  to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman
  underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times more
  important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are willing - better
  said anxious-to give their lives for their cause. How committed are we
  America? And for how long?
  
  In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack
  demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught
  to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and
  surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been
  trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was
  not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military
  competence to be displayed in the battle to come. This war will escalate,
  with a good portion of it happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A.
  These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must
  not fear them.
  
  In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world's only
  "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As
  you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for
  the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or seriously
  trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are much better
  than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist"
  organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield
  seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We
  will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are
  any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man.
  Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already
  deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living the
  lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a
  search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public
  must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked
  out.
  
  For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself
  and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were promoted
  because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This
  will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to
  strike with high technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will
  certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect
  metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves
  aboard the hijacked aircraft-this will be a knife fight, and it will be won
  or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software
  or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our military leaders.
  
  Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our
  adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to
  fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the
  American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to believe
  in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally
  acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only
  look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap
  (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America
  without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who marched
  to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat
  upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that
  Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the
  concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks,
  but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock
  infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities.
  These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the aver
  age American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our
  resolve. But it can only work if we let it.
  
  It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry - you and I - is
  the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon
  which victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient,
  and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian
  general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military
  theorist in history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that
  is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership of
  the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the
  field of battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the crosshairs
  of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to be
  in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the American people will
  decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because we have what it takes
  to persevere through a few more hits, learn from our! mistakes, improvise,
  and adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail. Everyone I've
  talked to In the past few days has shared a common frustration, saying in
  one form or another "I just wish I could do something!" You are already
  doing it. Just keep faith in America, and continue to support your
  President and military, and the outcome is certain. If we fail to do so,
  the outcome is equally certain.
  
  God Bless America
  
  Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
  Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy
  
  
  

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