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   Scott, 25 Sep 2001 @ 10:26am

   
   

   Something very interesting that we should understa

   For those who do not know him, Col. Charlie Precourt is an veteran Air Force
   Pilot and astronaut flying on STS-55, STS-71 ,and Commander of STS-84 and
   STS-91. Please see his note at the start about the author of this letter,
   Tony Kern.
   
   This puts into perspective how grave this situation really is.
   
   
   ----Original Message-----
   From: PRECOURT, CHARLES J., COL. (CHARLIE) (JSC-CB) (NASA)
   Sent: Tuesday, September 18, 2001 10:24 PM
   Subject: FW: The unspoken resolve: US vs. terrorists
   
   
   You all are probably tired of seeing forwarded e-mails on the terrorist
   situation...but this one is written by Tony Kern, the guy who wrote
   "Redefining Airmanship" and has been to visit us a couple of times as a
   guest speaker. It is thought provoking and worth the read.
   Charlie
   
   Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of
   military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written an
   "open letter to Americans." Please share it if you feel so moved.
   Tony
   
   
   Dear friends and fellow Americans 14 September, 2001
   
   Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's
   attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from surprise.
   As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a
   different perspective and I think you should hear it. This war will be won
   or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers.
   Let me briefly explain.
   
   In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us, this
   act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss
   them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was
   committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take
   this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics,
   but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made
   with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it
   was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because
   we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we
   think this war is over, just like my father's generation had to do with the
   formidable Japanese in the years following WW II.
   
   These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not
   underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the
   world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral is
   to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman
   underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times more
   important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are willing - better
   said anxious-to give their lives for their cause. How committed are we
   America? And for how long?
   
   In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack
   demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught
   to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and
   surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been
   trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was
   not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military
   competence to be displayed in the battle to come. This war will escalate,
   with a good portion of it happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A.
   These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must
   not fear them.
   
   In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world's only
   "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As
   you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for
   the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or seriously
   trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are much better
   than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist"
   organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield
   seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We
   will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are
   any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man.
   Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already
   deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living the
   lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a
   search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public
   must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked
   out.
   
   For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself
   and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were promoted
   because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This
   will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to
   strike with high technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will
   certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect
   metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves
   aboard the hijacked aircraft-this will be a knife fight, and it will be won
   or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software
   or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our military leaders.
   
   Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our
   adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to
   fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the
   American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to believe
   in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally
   acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only
   look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap
   (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America
   without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who marched
   to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat
   upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that
   Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the
   concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks,
   but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock
   infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities.
   These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the aver
   age American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our
   resolve. But it can only work if we let it.
   
   It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry - you and I - is
   the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon
   which victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient,
   and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian
   general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military
   theorist in history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that
   is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership of
   the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the
   field of battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the crosshairs
   of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to be
   in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the American people will
   decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because we have what it takes
   to persevere through a few more hits, learn from our! mistakes, improvise,
   and adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail. Everyone I've
   talked to In the past few days has shared a common frustration, saying in
   one form or another "I just wish I could do something!" You are already
   doing it. Just keep faith in America, and continue to support your
   President and military, and the outcome is certain. If we fail to do so,
   the outcome is equally certain.
   
   God Bless America
   
   Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
   Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy
   
   
   

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