Wireless Hype = Dot.com Hype?

from the ghosts-from-the-past dept

Wed, Apr 24th 2002 8:58am — Prash Agarwal

When you tell European and Asian wireless execs that you work in the wireless sector in the US, they give you a look that says "I'm so sorry". This is because while they are doing all sorts of cool things like launching direct billing services, SMS games and sexy new devices, we're still figuring it all out. Part of the reason we're late to the party is that we were hit hard by the dot.com fall out and many in the US view the current wireless hype with the same eyes. And this is probably OK. On the upside, I think the US market will have certain second mover advantages that will prove beneficial to our wireless industry in the long run. For one thing, when we finaly hold our 3G auctions the spectrum is going to be a lot cheaper than what European carriers paid.

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Adam Barr, 24 Apr 2002 @ 9:37am

Missing the point -- it's the SAME bubble
This wireless nonsense, and all the other post-PC hype, is not a bubble that is similar to the dot-com hype -- it's the SAME bubble. All those dot-coms companies that flamed out in 2000 were started in 1997 time frame. So what about the companies that hopped on the free money bandwagon in 1999? VCs were offering them all kinds of money, all they needed was a product. Presto they all decided the PC was dead and they would build the next big thing. Now it is 3 years later and nobody needs all that crap.
It's all explained right here kids.
- adam
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Mike (profile), 24 Apr 2002 @ 10:05am

Re: Missing the point -- it's the SAME bubble
Heh, well, Prash and I disagree about the level of hype vs. reality when it comes to wireless, but I think there is something in wireless.

Your article is good, and I agree that anyone who talks about the wireless internet replacing the PC isn't talking sense. However, if you look at what wireless let's you do in addition to the PC - as a complementary technology - then some interesting ideas start to come to light.

I like the idea of being able to retrieve data wirelessly from anywhere. I like the idea of being able to send short messages from my phone or PDA. I like the idea of being able to surf the internet on my PC from anywhere without having to find some place to connect to. There's something useful in what's coming out of all these wireless experiments.

I don't believe the PC is dead, nor do I believe the internet is dead, nor do I believe wireless is dead. I think ALL of them have had way too much hype, but at the same time there are useful aspects in all of them.

The best way to go about this is to not buy into all of the hype, but to look at the technology to see where it really can be useful.
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sb, 24 Apr 2002 @ 10:50am

Re: Missing the point -- it's the SAME bubble
> Adam Barr worked at Microsoft for over ten years before leaving in April of 2000. < br>

I like anyone that is anti-hype. However, could adam be bitter b/c he NAILED THE TOP when he quit Microsoft? Talk about the worst timing to quit your stable dayjob. Down to the very minute the bubble burst. I wonder if he bought CSCO at $80 as well ?
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Mike (profile), 24 Apr 2002 @ 10:58am

Re: Missing the point -- it's the SAME bubble
Assuming Adam got some stock from Microsoft in 1990 (I have no idea if he did or not, I'm just assuming), I imagine he's doing just fine right now. Anyway, as for bitterness, he's got a whole book to get out any bitterness (which I've just started reading, btw)...
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sb, 24 Apr 2002 @ 12:55pm

Re: Missing the point -- it's the SAME bubble
Good point. I totally overlooked his stock in MSFT. So, I correct myself, good time to quit and sell it all. Though MSFT weathered the tech wreck better than most, if he excercised everything in April 2000, he still sold b/w 90 and 65.

Still, I wonder if he went to some hairbrained dotcom in the 9th inning.
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sb, 24 Apr 2002 @ 12:58pm

Re: Missing the point -- it's the SAME bubble
Oh, book says he still owns his MSFT.

> Barr, who discloses that he no longer works there but owns "a good chunk of Microsoft stock," succeeds in being as unbiased as possible. < br>
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Adam Barr, 24 Apr 2002 @ 2:42pm

keep those cards and letters coming folks
To answer all your concerns:
1) I did not quite leave at the peak (that was December 1999), and I didn't sell all the stock I had then, but I'm not complaining.
2) I did not leave to do a dot-com, I left to finish the book and play with the kids. Still doing that two years later.
- adam
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