Just Two More Quarters - Scientifically Proven
from the so-they-say dept
It's been nearly two years since we first noticed the "just two more quarters" phenomenon. That's the trend for analysts to confidently predict that the market would recover in "just two more quarters". It is, as we originally pointed out, the perfect ass-covering position. People want to hear good news and so they're happy to hear an optimistic upswing prediction. Two quarters is close enough to keep people happy. It's also just long enough that people don't remember who predicted what when those two quarters pass and nothing actually comes of it. The latest to predict "just two more quarters" is the CEO of National Semiconductor, who says he came up with the prediction scientifically, by asking a professor to run some mathematical models of former boom and bust cycles. Why can't people face up to the fact that there's no real way to predict the end of the downturn. One of these days, it will end, and things will pick up again, but trying to interpret the tea leaves is a waste of time.
Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.
While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.
–The Techdirt Team
Reader Comments
Subscribe: RSS
View by: Time | Thread
[ link to this | view in chronology ]