Forget Moore's Law

from the get-off-the-train dept

Just as the technology press is hopping up and down excitedly over the news that Gordon Moore sees his own law keeping up its pace for another decade, Michael S. Malone is telling us all the many reasons why we should forget Moore's Law altogether. He says we have an unhealthy obsession with it (which is proven, partly, by the number of news sites that quickly ran with the latest prediction from Moore) that causes business people to lose site of everything else. He even blames it for the dot com collapse - saying people believed that if Moore's Law continued (as it did) that the economy would grow with it. The real point is that Moore's Law may have accelerated itself past its useful point. For most consumers and businesses, the idea of getting an ever more powerful computer every couple of years no longer makes sense. Moore's Law may continue, but the rest of the world may be hopping off the train. As it becomes possible to simply rent the necessary computing time you need off of a distributed or grid system, the need for more powerful chips becomes even less evident. Of course, I still think there are clear uses for more powerful chips - and having the power itself will create new uses. However, the basic premise is sound. Not everyone needs these more powerful systems, and even if the semiconductor industry can keep innovating to double the power of semiconductors every couple of years, they can't manufacture twice as many customers who need them any more.
Hide this

Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.

Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.

While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.

–The Techdirt Team


Reader Comments

Subscribe: RSS

View by: Time | Thread


  • identicon
    dorpus, 11 Feb 2003 @ 4:49am

    Other measures

    Other devices just as critical to overall computing speed haven't kept pace with Moore's law:

    - network speed
    - storage device speed
    - bus speed
    - Power (number of instructions) of chips
    - monitor display speed
    - boot-up speed
    - disk defragmentation speed

    link to this | view in chronology ]

  • identicon
    xdroop, 11 Feb 2003 @ 8:05am

    This has been said before

    It seems every two or three years this argument is trotted out -- that Moore's law has propelled chip technology beyond the relevance of the desktop, and that people don't really need faster computers. And yet, people keep buying these computers that they don't need.

    These kinds of articles are of the same ilk as the "the internet is collapsing". I believe Bob Metcalfe had to eat one of his articles predicting such a collapse.

    link to this | view in chronology ]


Follow Techdirt
Essential Reading
Techdirt Deals
Report this ad  |  Hide Techdirt ads
Techdirt Insider Discord

The latest chatter on the Techdirt Insider Discord channel...

Loading...
Recent Stories

This site, like most other sites on the web, uses cookies. For more information, see our privacy policy. Got it
Close

Email This

This feature is only available to registered users. Register or sign in to use it.