Like WiFi, VoIP Profits Might Go To Unexpected Places
from the follow-the-dollars dept
When WiFi was in its infancy, plenty of people thought they could make money from selling access at hotspots. In time, plenty of people figured out they had more to gain from offering free WiFi to their customers than from selling access, and the resultant spread of free hotspots hit the paid-access business hard, leaving only a few big players whose real success at selling access remains unclear. So who's ended up really making money from WiFi? Equipment manufacturers and chipset vendors, not service providers, and now Om Malik wonders if the VoIP market will play out the same way. The cost of basic voice service is quickly trending towards zero, while VoIP providers like Vonage and Skype are already having trouble making money. Malik sees a bright future for the makers of products like VoIP handsets, that let users make VoIP calls over WiFi, or without a PC, or even just PC headset manufacturers. It seems inevitable that the cost of voice will continue to fall, and be free in most cases as it gets bundled with other services, whether it's broadband access or mobile phone service, but as cost falls and uptake increases, so too will the need for VoIP hardware, whether that's phone adapters in cable modems or WiFi chips in mobile phones. Given those characteristics, it looks like VoIP could mimic the WiFi market and deliver the real returns to equipment vendors, not service providers -- but those returns could be hit even further since unlike WiFi, VoIP is simply a software application running on top of network connectivity.
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Disrupt
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Ongoing Cannibalization
Their loss is my gain. But I wont be surprised if they close down the road.
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What are the real costs in VoIP?
So whats the real expense here? Surely its not the software, thats too simple (and there are tonnes fo freebies for it). Not the internet connection, when one assumes that is a given.
I think the only tangible cost in VoIP replacing PSTN is the act of locating of the other person, and of course, bridging the VoIP world with the PSTN world. PSTN uses telephone numbers as the way to locate the "other party" when making a call. VoIP uses IP addresses.
We already live in a world full of routers and NAT'ng and dynamic ip addresses, so its not like you can tell all your friends to call you on 192.168.1.100. They owuld most likely wind up calling themselves anyways. Even if you did know your real ip address and gave it to your friends, you woudl have to tell them once a week to update their phone book (or as often as your dynamic addy gets changed by your isp, yes, one week is an exageration).
So the IP addy is useless as a phone number. But that can be worked around. For example, your IM login works great. Look at googles Talk for an idea how the "number" is simply not required. But that doesnt scale well.
The point about bridging back to the PSTN is where the real money is required tho. Mass adoption of VoIP requires that a call made from outside the PSTN realm is capable of connecting to a user of the PSTN. This is known as Net2Phone in one "bridge providers" application. The reverse is also pretty much a requirement. You have to be able to revice PSTN calls on your VoIP phone for it to be useful.
Now, guess who controls the access to that bridge? The PSTN maintainers get to set the rules. They get to set that price, and they dont want their precious PSTN to go away.
Personally, I just try to never use PSTN, but I haven't started using VoIP more to replace it. I never liked phone calls anyways.
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Re: What are the real costs in VoIP?
check out the VOIP white pages to see the providers that you can make free SIP calls to:
http://www.sipbroker.com/sipbroker/action/providerWhitePages;jsessionid=95715F1BBD2D31CE52EAFCC 8F2F96406
there are also PSTN numbers that you can call from a landline phone and then dial a SIP ID to contact thier VOIP service.
calls to mobiles in countries other than the US tend to be significantly more expensive than calls to international landlines or US mobiles, again a function of the existing telco business model.
in a number of situations, you can get a DID (a PSTN number that you can receive calls on) for a low price and get unlimited incomming calls, and only pay for calls that you make to the PSTN.
as for locating people on various networks, that is what SIP is for, and it can be augmented with enum.
one such enum service, which is free, is e164:
http://www.e164.org
once the big telcos switch to VOIP (and they will even if they don't want to) voice calls will be just like emails and IMs... totally free.
look at digium, the guys that make asterisk, an open source PBX server. they give the software away Free (as in libre AND gratis) and sell cards for servers.
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I agree with #1. A lot (work and home) refuse to make the transition to VoIP right now simply because the basic phone service, compared to internet telephony, is always up. Basically what hurts companies like Vonage and Skype is the reliability of the ISP unfortunately.
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Re:
I think the truth is closer to the fact that businesses dont see the business VALUE in making the transition to VoIP, and home users don't see the convenience in the savings. Going all cell is much easier for a home user than going VoIP. And often, its a cost they are already incurring.
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Re: Re:
My mom (please forgive the familial reference) sees absoltuly no point in using the VoIP built into chat clients to talk to me or her grandkids over. She'd rather use the convenience of a regular phone/cell. Even tho its a long distance call, its just not that expensive.
However, she recently shelled out over a grand for a new macbook so she could use apples iChat software to talk to her grandkids. With VIDEO. Technically, iChat is VoIP. Voice and Video over Internet Protocol.
But its a nice sophisticated package that actually delivers something she finds useful. Where as VoIP to her just seemed likea silly waste to time.
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VoIP not profitable...
The reason Skype is doing poorly is because eBay has no clue what it's good for. When eBay finally divests Skype (I predict it will do so in less than 2 years), both companies will do better. Or at least Skype might; eBay has lost all connection with its roots, and is drifting aimlessly. eBay will take a long time to die because of its sheer size, but the combination of GoogleBase, Froogle, and Google Checkout will eventually sweep eBay and its captive PayPal into the dustbin of history. Unless, of course, they manage to come up with a better business model than they currently have.
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Bigger businesses can afford to have dedicated communications lines which help to minimize the possibility of downtime, so VoIP would make sense. But I don't see it making major penetration into residential areas until it becomes a LOT more reliable than it is now, which isn't gonna happen anytime soon.
And to be honest, this whole 911 issue still scares me. I don't wanna have to call it and be routed to some operator halfway across the country. And don't tell me they've completely solved the problem yet, because I know they haven't. I have a landline with no long-distance service, which is used for only my DSL service 99% of the time, and I have a cell phone that takes care of the rest. I don't see any reason to change that setup anytime soon.
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VOIP is not reliable enough
So the way I see it, is that VOIP currently only has a chance if its free a free supplement because it is not sufficient quality to replace existing land lines. I.e. I do use Skype Out for free while my wife is using the land line.
Also, non-geeks seem to be unable/unwilling to use computers to talk. I have observed they rather type-chat then try out the voice service. Very mysterious to me...
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Why not hybrids?
I'd like to see a traditional cell phone (i.e. GPRS) that's a dual-mode VOIP phone. In other words, when you're within range of an open wifi spot, it would use a VOIP system to make calls, and when you're not, it could revert to the old GPRS system. This could be a big win for the carriers and consumers. Since the open wifi costs them nothing in equipment - and a fraction of the normal cost even for the internet bandwidth for their VOIP server - then they could offer plans with (for example) 3000 VOIP minutes and 1000 Cellular minutes for the same cost as an existing 1500 Cell minute plan. Even better, with so many people ditching their home phones altogether in favor of a cell phone, and so many people with their own in-home wifi, this would mean that most, if not all the calls they make while at home would be cheap, and allow users to save their GPRS minutes for when they're in the car.
I've seen VOIP cell phones, and I've seen cell phones with Wifi connectivity. I've even run Skype for PocketPC over GPRS (they don't reccomend it, but if you get more than 50% signal it works perfectly, and at 2 cents a minute it's a lot cheaper than the 3.9 cents a minute t-mobile charges me). I'd just like to see a Motorolla or Nokia flip phone that's truely dual-band between GPRS and Wifi.
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Using Skype for Free Within Tor To USA and CanadaU
Until the end of this year skype allows free calls to the USA and Canada IF your IP address originates from these countries. BUT no need to move, just use tor, privoxy and freecap and you can get free calls.
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Skype have free calls to the USA and Canada for citizens of those countries. But how does it find out who is a citizen of these countries? Your IP address. Can this be changed? Yes. Easily? Yes
http://torandskype.blogspot.com/
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