Plenty Of Exaggeration Over Microsoft's Rumored Demise
from the the-slow-business-of-going dept
Lately, there's been a lot of discussion in various quarters about the future of Microsoft, with many proclaiming, once again, that the company is poorly positioned and ill-prepared to deal with the changing technology landscape. However, as Jason Wood astutely points out, this discussion has become rather repetitive and tiresome. Everyone and their grandmother knows that Windows is not the big deal it used to be, as internet-based software has reduced the significance of the client-side operating system. The fact that Microsoft faces significant challenges from Google, as well as a number of smaller firms, has also been quite obvious for some time. As Wood points out, the discussion ignores the major counterpoint to the doom and gloom arguments, which is the continuing financial success of the company. Despite its enormous size, the company manages to grow more profitable each year, and although it's highly dependent on revenue from Windows and Office, the company is proving adept at diversifying its revenue streams (e.g. servers, enterprise software, video games, mobile), which is something that Google has yet to pull off. The key point is not that all of the concern about Microsoft is wrong -- there's certainly plenty of validity to it, and the company does have its work cut out for it -- but that there's a need for the discussion to move forward, instead of rehashing the same points over and over again.Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
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The haters
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Microsoft could coast for a decade...
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I agree they are not going anywhere
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Re: I agree they are not going anywhere
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MS is to big to go away
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It's all about bragging rights...
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Microsoft
Long story short... Microsoft is still in the game and will be for a long time to come. They are not as stupid as everyone wants to make them sound. They still employ some of the best minds in the world and will adapt and learn.
I will make my own prediction that going forward over the next 5 years MS will improve their market base and release some pretty cool software.
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Re: Microsoft
But REALLY! I am seeing the same thing, and I am the one NOT running Windows.
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Re: Re: Microsoft
M$ will survie for years, whatever happens. DirectX is the most important software product which will encorage people to use Windows, beacuse so many games only use DirectX, and because gamers do not want to have to run WINE, because of the performance hit. since they are using Windows, more young people are only familiar with Windows adn so cannot easily use other OSes.
Tehother probelm is that since a lot of comapnies use M$ products, schools tech studnts how to use them, and so it is easiest for companies to assume staff know how to use M$ products, leading to a vicious cycle..
OTT, but I find it amusing that a lot of ads for Macs emphasise the fact taht they run M$ Office. This did give me some (more) stuff to annoy the Mac advertisers at O-week at Uni over.
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Re: Microsoft Demise
There are a lot of very smart people who work there (I know many of them personally) and I can assure you that the Mother Ship will remain quite nimble in adapting to the changing technosphere.
You can bash MS all you want, that isn't likely to change reality.
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Re:
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Google officially does not compete with M$
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I just wish their stock would go up, getting tired of seeing my portfolio blow.
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Microsoft will survive, but...
It's worthwhile looking at the lessons of history. Nobody thought IBM could ever be knocked off its perch as king of the computing world, but it was. That's because it was king of mainframes, and nobody thought those toylike little PCs would ever come to dominate the computing world--the idea was just laughable. Yet it happened.
In the same way, I think Microsoft is king as long as closed-source software remains dominant. As it gradually gives way to open-source, so Microsoft's dominance will wane. Many may find the idea just as laughable as that of PCs taking over from mainframes. Yet I think there are signs of it happening already.
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cash
I'm not saying, nor did the analyst directly, that such an occurrence means that they're failing. It does mean that those of you that are saying that they can exist on those cash reserves for years or decades better think again. Microsoft is BIG, and a big company can bleed cash very quickly once things do start going south.
The point of this article isn't that the recent discussions are necessarily wrong saying that Microsoft is in trouble, but that instead of just repeating that mantra, we should move the discussion on to the next level.
What is that next level?
Perhaps what will Microsoft do to counter the forces that are causing it to lose market share? WILL it do anything to counter that? CAN it?
Instead of actually trying to compete in the same old way, will new management (after Gates) try reorganizing itself? Perhaps will MS try to dump unprofitable parts of itself? Diversification is the best defense against losing out in a primary market. If its not really that primary to your revenue stream any more, then you don't lose so big.
I think that's the thrust of this article. Plenty of analysts, and others, have noted the market forces that are grinding away at Microsoft, and even a monopoly can't fight forever. Markets change, and if the monopolist doesn't change, it WILL lose.
So now, start the discussion.
HOW will Microsoft change. Or will it?
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WINE can kill Microsoft...IF...
IF a WINE-like alternative were to really function, the capacity to truly port Windows apps and hardware to Linux or whatever OS, then there can be a rapid shift from the MS-only cycle. Otherwise it would have to be a gradual multi-decade change for things to shift away from this dominance.
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Get Real Folks
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MS
Microsoft creates extremely full featured software that functions well. When it is found not to function, they turn around and fix it quickly. I've yet to see any other company release software that even comes close to the quality of a Microsoft product.
What do linux touters actually DO with your computers after you boot up? Ping each other?
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Re: MS
Guess you would have to try it to find out huh?
Everyone should stop thinking about Linux versus MS and start thinking of open source versus closed source. This is where the revolution is taking place. Linux happens to be a open source platform that is truly open. While that might not mean much now, in ten years when 90% of all software projects are open sourced it will mean a whole lot.
Why continue to support MS when they no longer have the best solution for the market? Industry and development will get it first (they already have) and the consumers will follow.
So people may still use Windows, but the reality that most of their apps will be open source at some point proves that even Windows cannot escape the open source momentum.
All you source will belong to us! :)
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Re: Re: MS
Doesn't anyone understand free enterprise, the concept of survival of the fittest or natural selection anymore?
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Re: Re: Re: MS
Firefox accounts for over 20% of the browsing market and is the preferred choice for computer literate users. Of course this is just one example of hundreds of widely used open source applications.
Your statement is pretty dumb when you consider most of the Web is running open source applications (ever hear of Apache? lol)
"Doesn't anyone understand free enterprise, the concept of survival of the fittest or natural selection anymore?"
Yes thats why open source is the best possible solution to the software industry. Let's use your natural selection analogy to explain. Open source allows us to keep the best, fastest, and most secure code around so it can keep being improved upon by everyone who wants to.
Closed source development is like life in a cave. Sure it can adapt in some pretty cool ways but it can only survive in a cave.
Software needs to be more flexible and adaptable than development in a cave can provide. This is why over 60% (perhaps more now) of all software development labs have already implemented open source strategies.
Let those "hybrid" people keep thinking they can build proprietary off of open source because in the end once they sign up with open source they are owned....mohahahahaa :)
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Re: Re: Re: Re: MS
Apache? It's probably the best you can get for free. A web server is also a fundamentally simple piece of software that has been around for decades. I could explain it to you if you weren't an idiot.
Closed source works because people have a vested interest in making it work. Open source works for certain things, but like I said - it will never deliver a superior product.
Read the last paragraph you wrote. If you had any doubts that you weren't a free enterprising capitalist, that should settle it.
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you are freaking hilarious! :)
"Apache? It's probably the best you can get for free. A web server is also a fundamentally simple piece of software that has been around for decades. I could explain it to you if you weren't an idiot."
I guess that makes everyone on the internet including the people who host this blog an idiot. I bet you make a lot of friends that way jack*ss.
"Closed source works because people have a vested interest in making it work. Open source works for certain things, but like I said - it will never deliver a superior product."
Thats why MS is trying so desperately to embrace open source.. lol
"Read the last paragraph you wrote. If you had any doubts that you weren't a free enterprising capitalist, that should settle it."
I have no doubt your ability to reason is limited by how far your head is where the sun doesn't shine.
Great comments, but I hear something knocking. Oh wait, it's reality!
Apache? It's probably the best you can get for free.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: MS
Don't worry though - you might smarten up with age.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: MS
I know, I know. You only kick it with the fascists and the neo-cons...>:)
"because these people demonstrate a lack of understanding of the big picture"
And your rhetoric clearly demonstrates how your grasp on the big picture is superior than those damned reds.
"Don't worry though - you might smarten up with age."
Current societal trends tend to point to the fact that age devalues your worth and intelligence due to the ever increasing speed of innovation and technology.
BTW I already smartened up, thats why I don't buy into pointless socialistic or capitalistic propaganda. A black and white mentality is a poor way to view the world.
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diversify
The gaming division at MS is unprofitable, and has been for years. Enterprise software is unprofitable. Don't know about mobile or servers, but diversifying isn't a catch-all solution unless you can make it work financially.
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Great article
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Microsoft vs Google
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