Will 2008 Be The Year Of The Linux Desktop?
from the probably-not dept
People have been declaring the Year of Desktop Linux for years. Linus Torvalds himself declared the Year of the Linux Desktop way back in 2004, a prediction that now appears to have been a bit optimistic. Now, Forrester is predicting that 2008 will be the year that Linux becomes a "credible threat" to Windows. Color me skeptical. The suite of Linux desktop software—especially the excellent Open Office—has definitely improved over the years, with Ubuntu getting a lot of buzz over the last couple of years for putting out a polished and user-friendly product. But desktop users, and corporate desktop users in particular, tend to be very conservative. They want software they trust, and that they know will be compatible with other peoples' software. Unless Linux-based products offer compelling features that the Windows alternatives don't, it's just not going to be worth the risk of abandoning trusted software. Moreover, a lot of companies have a suite of specialized business software that was built around Windows that would be very costly to convert to another platform. Eventually, the cost savings may be compelling enough to get a significant number of companies to switch. Windows and Office are expensive, but switching your whole company to software that has unanticipated flaws is a lot more expensive. So the process of evaluating, testing, and transitioning to a new operating system is likely to take a decade, not a year. So I doubt that a significant number of companies will be providing Linux desktops to their (non-geek) employees by the end of 2008.Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
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Filed Under: 2008, desktop, linux, operating systems
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Trust?
Also, "unanticipated flaws"? In my opinion, Windows will have just as many unanticipated flaws (maybe not flaws, but more "Why the heck?") than a different operating system.
Those are my only complaints, your other points are very true. Compatibility, Windows only software, and the fear of the unknown are the major barriers. But I see casual computer users (Email, word processor, internet, and the occasional game) start switching before the corporate workforce. They don't have to deal with evaluating or testing, only transitioning (which, according to what read, is not that hard).
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I think the 'everyday' office worker PC's are a ways off still; however.
Microsoft is pretty competitive in terms of Enterprise Management. I can't really see 'ease' in managing a huge Linux Network, although to be honest, I've never looked into it.
Novell's NDS on Linux might be quite a good way to go; but to be honest, so many companies have gotten away from Netware, I'm not even sure how well it does work.
Most user's have enough troubles just getting around Windows, I couldn't see them acclimating to Linux well. I don't know how many times I've heard "They always change this stuff as soon as I get used to it".
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Getting rid of the windows crutch
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Low cost PCs and Notebooks
ASUS Eee PC.
Everex Green gPC.
OLPC (One Laptop Per Child).
All running Linux and the first 2 selling faster than they can be produced.
These are excellent, low cost computers that are perfect for students and low income families.
People that will add to the pool of programmers and sysadmins in the future.
2008 may well be the year of the Linux desktop for the home/student desktop whereas the authors arguments are focused on why Linux might fail on the business desktop.
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Re: Low cost PCs and Notebooks
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Re: Low cost PCs and Notebooks
Tim Lee wrote:
Maybe that's the wrong thing to focus on. Linux may not have made much headway into the existing corporate desktop market so far, but it is a significant contributor to these new, up-and-coming market segments as mentioned by Robin Stephens.
By the way, I am typing this on an Asus Eee 701 that I bought a couple of days ago. It's a small, yet perfectly-formed little machine, with a lot of useful capabilities provided at modest cost. I think it's a really good demonstration of how Linux can be the basis of a resource-miserly, yet fully-functional desktop platform, in a way that Microsoft Windows would be struggling to match.
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Re: Re: Low cost PCs and Notebooks
But I agree with the author that businesses are unlikely to adopt a Linux based desktop in a big way.
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With Mandriva, it is.
Ubuntu on the other hand, everyone's favorite distro...I have yet to see anyone use for more than a month or so without going back to Windows. It just doesn't work.
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Re: With Mandriva, it is.
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yawn
More importantly, 90% of the people I know who are still using Windows _could_ easily be using Linux. I know there are "Power Users" who absolutely must have Photoshop or DragonNS or who want to be able to play Every FPS Game Ever Written but there are many ordinary home users who only surf the web, send and receive email, and edit simple documents that OpenOffice is more than capable of handling.
I've converted many people over to Linux and I support them afterwards. And so far almost everything they've wanted me to install for them (eg PDF reader, MSN client, basic photo editor/filing system) has been something that was _already_ installed, but they just didn't know where to find it. I've hardly even needed to introduce them to the 18,000 packages available one checkbox away through synaptic!
They year of Linux on YOUR desktop starts any time you feel like installing it.
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Windows is too entrenched.
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Re: compatibility
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Re: Re: compatibility
Don't give me any crap about OOo and how it's better than MS Office. I've tried it and it's not. It's the best alternative if you don't have MS Office, but I do have it.
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Windows - It just works...most of the time
Linux - It just works...if you code it to
Mac - It just works...for idiots
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Re: Re: compatibility
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Hmm...No.
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Re: Hmm...No.
I'm tired of reading this same headline year after year. I have a Linux box at home. It's usable and I kinda like it, but no, it ain't happening.
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Windows Upgrade
I do agree though. It doesn't seem like there will be a "year", but rather it will be a gradual process.
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Vista actually works its you that's broken
Even if Windows had zero bugs/issues/security flaws people would still look for the "alternative".
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Personal experience
We did, however, just invest in a new phone system that has fancy software for managing phone calls, and it only runs on windows. Only management uses that software, though.
We use Samba for network files. We don't use roaming user profiles or anything like that, and I don't know how that works on linux.
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XP volume license agreements will probably also slow the switch. My company doesn't plan on shifting to Vista in the foreseeable future, but they won't have to switch to Linux because they plan to keep installing XP on all of the new machines. I don't know if all license agreements are like that, but if they are I suspect most companies are going to just ride with XP as long as it is supported. Now if Microsoft does something incredibly stupid like not renewing XP agreements or jacking up to Vista pricing then the switch to Linux would be a lot more attractive.
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lst few comments..
Sounds like you should have invested in some nice hardware from Digium and/or Cisco and set up an Asterisk server, with a web interface that works from any browser (the name of the web app. temporarily escapes me..)
Shared calendar-like application? Evolution seems to do this just fine. It even ties into the Outlook server so you can run a mixture of Outlook/Windows and Evolution/Linux systems while you migrate. You could also move to a web-based collaboration system like zimbra.
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Re:
http://www.joke-archives.com/microsoft/microsoftvspsychicfriends.html
You can use the free version and get at least the same amount of support you'd typically get from Microsoft for just-the-licence-fee-no-support-contract (which is SFA)
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Re:
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Linux
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A Linux Anecdote
You obviously have no understanding of the Linux kernel. Once upon a time, I experimentally built a system out of, shall we say, "buggy" crap parts. I knew the parts weren't the best, but was in dire straits and needed a system. Put Windows on it... and no matter what I did or tried, Windows would always crash within 30 minutes *(sometimes 3 minutes).
For a lark, I put Linux on the same machine. Solid as a rock. Pillar of goddamn strength. In incredulity, sure it was a fluke, I maxed out everything (even artificially, eventually); the RAM, the CPU, the disk IO, everything. SOLID AS A FUCKING ROCK.
You obviously have no understanding of the Linux kernel.
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It all boils down to cost (Warning Ramblings)
Windows is a great OS, but to be honest, I find myself stealing to much when I use Windows. I would get a ripped copy of Windows XP or Vista. then I would get ripped software for DVD Burning, Photo editing, you name it (don't forget winzip). I would have justification for it too: " I already bought Nero and lost the serials, I'm entitled to a hacked serial."
I can only imagine what the total software cost would be.
Since Using Ubuntu Linux full time this has stopped and I have thrown out all those crappy old versions of hacked software. Its funny cause friends assume that since I work in IT that I have software just laying around for them.
Nope..
And for lack of games,(you would think that would be incentive for Corps to swich) I got a wii.
even more.
I noticed something very special the other day. my friend who I setup with Ubuntu last year had a wireless problem with his router. He used to work in IT but has went onto other endeavors. I was able to help him out and fix it, but the amazing thing is, is that he new nothing on how to fix his computer. If you think about this. The reason that he didn't know how to fix it was because it never needed any maintenance. He would just turn it on and use it. It was a 1gig computer, slightly slow but good enough for him. It was all he needed.
My neighbor, on the other hand, was having some computer problems. I went over to her place and he computer was getting "slower and slower". She said "I've only had this computer for two years and it slowly dying". Her anti virus was out of date and she told me how he had been defragging it once a month and its still slow. she wanted to know if she needed more ram. And she wanted to know if I had an extra copy of Office. I help helped her a little bit but told her that she needs to re-image and start over. There was just too much crap going on. Her computer was some 2gig Toshiba thing (ugly too).
and it a freaking pride issue too.
Heaven forbid! Someone who's the big IT MAN at a company look like they don't know what they are doing. I have never seen so much dragging of the feet and stupid commie comments when my IT group took some Linux classes. To get them to understand the power of using the shell and not using a gui was a failed effort.
Good night
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But I see windows largely abandoning the low end - if they go ahead and stop providing XP, then what will be put on lower end machines? Including the new ultra portables like the ASUS eee. If Vista becomes entry level, then there will be no low powered options.
And away from relatively wealthy western countries, Vista and MS products are so expensive in local terms they are untenable. Note Russias response to pressure to legalise their software base - not to spend billions on MS products, just enforce a switch to open source...
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Sorry, not this year either
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Watch Dell with Ubuntu Linux
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Ubuntu is good enough now
But the problem, as many people pointed out, is that businesses have many custom applications that cannot easily be moved to Linux without the vendor's help.
But what the vendors probably don't realize, is that it's most likely easier to recompile their current .NET application on Linux under Mono than it is to get it to work on Vista. Once companies start figuring this out, they should start offering Linux versions. And once this starts happening, you'll start to see large-scale migrations away from Windows.
But with SharePoint and other OS-tying technologies, Microsoft will continue to lock many people in, no matter how bad their OS is.
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Linux vs. Windows
Microsoft leaves bugs in there OS and apps on purpose. Just to bring out an update with even more bugs. Which can be totally insecure.
Microsoft had a good OS they called Windows 95, it may not have looked great to what we have now, but looks arent everything!! Microsoft, when released windows 95, in turn released windows 98 which should have been free becuase essentially it was a fix for windows 95. So instead they sell it through retail stores for a price!! Microsoft will often release bug-ridden, incompatible software just to have customers pay.
Just for the picky about 64-bit Operating systems, In 1996, Bill Gates promised 64-bit support in Windows NT. This stifled the market for Unix, a proven enterprise product. 64-bit support arrived in Windows XP 64-Bit four and a half years later!
Linux is opensource, therefore anyone can compile there own distrobution of linux and redistribute it. Thus making bugs in the OS less likely. Each release of a linux distro benefits the users, not the creators. Linux may have some problems with hardware, like winmodems and such, but its getting a lot better. Ubuntu is defiantely making a name for itself, its usability is awesome! Great for new linux users! and the best part about Linux is that Linux is free, as in freedom, and free, as in price.
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Re: Linux vs. Windows
Windows 95 was that last good OS from MS?
Microsoft leaves bugs in their OS and Apps on purpose??
Linux has less bugs because it's Open Source?
Nothing but FUD!
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Re: Linux vs. Windows
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Re: Re: Linux vs. Windows
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Decade for Linux
Sure maybe there won't be a "year for Linux", but I see things heading in the right direction and I like it!!! Linux is improving very fast...I am ready for that!
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Windows or Linux?
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Ubuntu, Redhat, Susse and Mandriva
Ubuntu users should beware, a system where you can't change the root password is a HUGE security risk. Passwords are your first point of protection for your data.
No doubt that all the free stuff out there is great and there was nothing that my Linux box could not do better than Windoze and faster EXCEPT RUN THE TOUCH SCREEN and no one out there knows how to get them to work so back to WINDOZE for me.
The sad truth when I asked the vendors of commercial versions of the above none would commit to getting the screen to work. The Windows driver that came with the screen ofcourse works and there is the difference. It all works in Windoze maybe not 100% but works in an acceptable manner most of the time. LINUX to date doesn't.
Gates charges like a wounded bull but thats the price you have to pay.
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to Anonymous Coward
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