Wall Street Noticing That The Math On iPhones Doesn't Add Up
from the 2-+-2-only-equals-3? dept
While Wall Street has had something of a love affair with Apple's stock until very recently, it appears that they're finally catching on that not everything may be as rosy as stated. With Apple and AT&T announcing numbers on iPhone sales and iPhone activations, respectively, there's a 1.7 million phone gap between those numbers. Taking into account the recent launches of iPhones in other countries (estimated at 350,000 to 400,000 iPhones so far) and a 20% estimate on people buying iPhones solely for unlocking, there are still nearly 700,000 iPhones unaccounted for... suggesting that they're sitting on store shelves, piling up as unsold inventory. That number suggests at least some gap between perceived demand and actual demand -- while also raising questions about how much effort it will take to eat through that inventory.
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Filed Under: inventory, iphones, wall street
Companies: apple
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I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
Personally, I account for 3 of those missed AT&T activations. I won't do business with AT&T. I hate cell companies as it is. My parents taught me that "contracts are for suckers". So T-Mobile and I have an understanding. They keep their network up, and I'll keep buying pre-paid time.
When the iPhone came out I was thrilled with the software inside. For once, it wasn't a sensless, scatterbrained collection of endless drill downs slathered with teeny-twit color candy.
As soon as the JailBreak and Unlock was announced, I bought one for me, my wife and daughter.
As happy as I am, I'm still not satisfied as a customer. I want the AT&T lock removed from the phone. I want to write my own applications for the phone. Why?? BECAUSE IT IS NOT A DAMN PHONE!!! It is a quarter-tablet personal computer with a cell phone modem in it.
I am no different than millions of others. Why can't some company give me what I want? Why do they keep walking away from my money???
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Re: I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
No smudgy prints on your phone and there's lots software support for symbian.
As well as SDKs for various PL's. Woot.
I wish I had a life.
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Re: Re: I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
Right, and wiping greasy earprints off my phone with my smudgy fingers is any better. This smudgy cellphone touch screen stuff is getting real old. Look at the ear/face crud on your phone right now. Thanks, now shut up.
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Re: Re: Re: I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
No need to thank me, jackass.
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Re: I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
Ahh, but alas- Apple did not obviously walk away from your money. Like the Apple Drone you are- you bought a phone that you aren't even using fully. And since so many of you "gotta have it" gadget dweebs decided to buy it regardless of the limitations, Apple has learned nothing from the experience.
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Re: Re: I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
Why?
Because I was sick and damned tired of shitty software in cell phones. The stuff was making me furious to the point of being routinely livid. I am a software engineer and I know how EASY it is to do this RIGHT. But RIGHT was clearly not what any of the US cell companies were interested in. The iPhone software just works and does not insult my intelligence, nor waste my time, nor attempts to distract me with mindless teenager targeted eye candy nonsense. It respects me.
Am I completely satisfied? No. But I went from 2% satisfied to 95% satisfied in $400. Not bad, actually.
And even though Apple may have not learned from this experience, I'm fairly sure companies like FIC ARE, and are positioning themselves to take that 1.7 million unit market and grow that into a 25 million unit market with an open source iPhone clone.
Alan
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Re: I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
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Re: I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
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Re: I am 3 of those 1.7 million.
I admit I don't use mine overly regularly so I will be dropping my plan to a lower ranked plan but I worked it out over the period of the contract it works out far cheaper than prepaid when used.
You're also wrong about the iPhone being a tablet with a cell modem in it, it was designed first and foremost as a phone THEN an iPod then everything else, as such locking down the phone until they can produce a reliable means of distributing applications that won't kill either the phone or the network makes sense. If you want an unlocked phone buy one from France for full price.
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I've seen people walking around with them for many months.
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Also, for anybody who actually follows Wallstreet, you would know that stock prices dont always reflect whats actually going on with a company. There are companies with ridiculously high stock prices that preform shitty and vise versa. Wallstreet is almost as much as emotion and a popularity contest as to anything else.
So this brings it to the idea of how a company actually preforms dosent have much to do with a stock price and just because the stock has been batteretly lately has nothing to do with the performance of Apple. It might have to do with the Mortgage and Financial crises and the slowdown of the economy.
Other wise, with the recent earnings call, $9.6 Billion in revenue and another $1.6 Billion in profit. Plus the fact that in the first 90 days (we are not on day 209 of the iPhone being on sale) the iPhone matched the market share of all other competitor and was only behind RIM. Imagine, thats first 90 days so you do the math, but that seems like the iPhone is doing fine. Now, as for the missing numbers, it could also account to a much higher unlocked units. I can tell you from personal fact that it had to be higher then that. I wont get into details of how i know this.
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Re: Apple Stock goes waaay South
What happened was the fairy dust finally wore off as Wall Street realized just how big of a premium they were paying for underpowered, overpriced, slick design and hype-hype-hype.
Quote illegalprelude: "I wont get into details of how i know this."
Of course you won't, because you are an Apple flack.
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Re: Re: Apple Stock goes waaay South
Silly little child you need to pay attention to the news. all the news not just what comes up on a 20 second blurb.
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Re:
Profit isn't added to revenue, it's part of it.
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Just as AlGoracle invented the Internet SteveJobs invented a "Revolutionary" Cell Phone.... Not!
Apple Hype just like the Democratic pary is truly disgusting to behold in a nekid state....
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Re:
For clarity's sake, please consider next time holding your crayon in your hand rather than your nose. I'm certain your point might be made better if you were more literate and less... a scholar of the forcibly inserted cranial-Proctology persuasion.
Sincerely,
Anyone bothering to read your immature and insignificant little rants
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Re: Re:
Is it really mature to call people names even if you use some skillful writing?
On topic, Jobs is a good salesman and had Wall Street fooled. The economy sucks, the price is high, and most don't like the locked in features of the iPhone. More became wary of even buying to unlock the phone after the bricking fiasco. Wall Street thought it would be the iPod of the cell phone industry. Well, it wasn't.
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Re: Re: Re:
Second, perhaps you're right, but it's not like Mitch didn't deserve it.
And, I think the iPhone really *is* the iPod of the cell phone industry, with one key difference: they'll need more iterations before they can hope to gain the same level of success as the iPod because this time around, they've got a TON of existing competitors.
The endeavor Apple took on with the iPhone is similar to the one Microsoft undertook with the Zune. The key difference in outcomes being blatantly obvious... no matter how the 700,000 units ultimately wind up being accounted for (or not).
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Re:
First, I'm sure all your windows mobile apps are just great. I've been developing mobile apps in Java, and they really stink. The whole platform really, really stinks.
Secondly, jailbroken iPhones run several apps. And, for some reason, the 1.1.3 iPhone firmware update has magically restored SIM-unlocked iPhones bricked by the 1.1.2 update... not sure how relevant that, but that might speak a little to the folks complaining about Apple's little "conspiracy" to brick iPhones. Looks like they fixed something.
Finally, official 3rd party app for iPhone is on the way. When it arrives, be *sure* the number of available *native* apps will quickly surpass what's available on Windows Mobile. Granted, this last point is forward-looking, rather than based on review of the past... but I figure I'm allowed at least one extrapolation. ;-)
And, finally, your political analogs are not only meaningless, they're boring. "Ooooh, look at me, I have opinions... of ALL sorts... and I'll tell you all about them."
You're simply an inflammatory troll.
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Re: Troll or shill?
I have mobile Linux devices that do much more than is available on any Windows Mobile device. It just depends on your use. Most people use a mobile phone/mp3 player/web device for just that, so the features aren't lacking for the masses. The revolution with the iPhone was always the interface.
Also, to dispel the FUD. Most 3rd party apps (not free) on Win mobile devices are nothing to write home about. Plus Apple announced last year that they were releasing the iPhone SDK this February. I've seen quite a few good 3rd party devs running on unlocked iPhones (including hi-def DV recording), so once the SDK is released we should see some interesting ideas.
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still nothing gives you nightmares like a nakid republican.
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Re:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore#Internet_and_technology
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Elsewhere
Do you think that the well-off in China or some other country are simply waiting for Apple to finally set up shop? That the entrepreneurial types aren't buying them up and sending them off? Remember, til recently Apple even had limits on the number of phones an individual could buy.
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Apple iphone
too expensive, restricted networks,closed loop for add-ons,
solve these- got the numbers you want..minds you iPhone sales are still very good despite the problems..
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Third Wheel
What a complete load of crap. Windows Mobile needs third party apps just to get the damn thing to do anything useful, just like the it's hobbled cousin, Palm. Third party apps aren't that big a deal when your device functions exceptionally well out of the box. Just the browsing capability alone leaves every other cell phone on the planet behind. And what, pray tell, will you have when the newly sanctioned third party apps DO make it to the iPhone courtesy of the SDK? You will have Windows Mobile even further behind.
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I love how our Euro friends steal away our IPO's because of our "hate business" regulations like SOX. $7.1 billion in rogue trades? Yeah, we need to lighten up here.
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My nephew just bricked his with the official updat
His mom took the phone, in its generic packing box with no mention of apple or iphone anywhere including the address, to FedEx to send it back. As soon as she walked in the door the man behind the counter said "another bricked iphone going back."
That's where the other phones are - bought by Apple's own support division.
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Re: My nephew just bricked his with the official u
Still, I guess the moral of the tale is that Apple's support isn't anywhere near as bad as a lot of trolls make out ;)
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Unlocked iPhones are not hard to find.
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iPod in the rest of the world
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R U missing the point?
Whether the phone is unlocked and being used on T-mobiles network, (I refer to GeneralEmergecny's comments above), or sold in another country, those projected numbers aren't being met.
And if 700K are sitting on shelves in stores, well, that isn't good news either. Maybe it's because AT&T isn't pushing the iphone as much as other phones (why should they split the profits with apple?).
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You know I never really had anything against AT&T - up until this point. This whole iPhone mess has made me REALLY sway far away from both Apple and AT&T.
Any company that decides - on a pure 'screw the consumer' basis to restrict a device that otherwise, doesn't need a restriction like this (I could see it if there was a *technical* reason) can take their product and stick it.
I can't see any reason for Apple and AT&T to make the deal - other than the customer getting shafted somehow. And a quick Google of 'iPhone plans' shows this to be very much so the case... $119.00 for 2000 Minutes? - I pay half as much for practically unlimited.
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Re:
Very simple. On Apple's side, they needed carriers. Everybody they talked to knew the device would explode and demanded exclusivity, and AT&T offered the best deal.
I don't really blame Apple, because how else could they get this thing to market? I blame AT&T only slightly more--of course they want an exclusive. But it really comes down to the regulations in the industry that allow this behavior. Why are cell phone companies allowed to only support certain devices?
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Re:
i also feel obliged to point out that nobody's getting screwed over; if you don't think their product is worth the money, don't buy it.
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Tax rebates
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When you waste time, like an old man walking slowly down a hallway, the public, very eager to get to where they want, will go around you.
We just got television show downloads through iTunes /last month/, and at that, there's fewer than a dozen shows we can buy.
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I have one, I like Apple, I like AT&T, I like the iPhone and its features, and I got it for the same price as a less-capable BBerry with a plan that is $40 less expensive a month.
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Re:
You are obviously in denial. Maybe I can help you wake up… Since you like AT&T I will outline the comparison you pose against BlackBerry.
-iPhone $400, 2yr -BB Curve $200 or less, 2yr (same price?)
-$20 for data -$30 for data (a $40 difference???? Good math)
-Safari Browser -Basic Web Browser (no uTube)
-Multi touch screen -no touch screen
-Two handed device -One handed device
-Battery is so -Removable battery
-a few 3 party programs -A long list of 3 party programs
-requires itunes -does not need itunes to work
-No mms -MMS
-web email - Push email
-no GPS -GPS in the 8310 curve
-WiFi -no Wifi
We all know you did not buy the iPhone for the price reason, and if you still believe you bought it for features. Seek help
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