Despite Winning The HD Format War, Blu-Ray Sales Dropped
from the whoops dept
We've been pretty harsh on the warring camps over the next generation DVD standard, pointing out, frankly, that most people just didn't care, and the longer the two sides battled, the worse the problem would get. However, even given that I wouldn't have expected the latest news that Blu-ray sales have plummeted from January to February, following its eventual win in the standards battle. Research group NPD chalks up the sales drop to the high prices of Blu-ray DVD players... but that doesn't make any sense. The players were already expensive -- so you'd at least expect sales to remain constant, even if selling prices may have bumped up a bit without the HD DVD competition.My guess is that a few different things may have impacted the decline in sales. First, there's the seasonal aspect of it (and February is a short month). But, perhaps even more important is that the whole standards battle itself turned users off from any form of next generation DVDs. Those who were HD DVD early adopters are pissed off that they bet on the wrong horse, and those who didn't follow the space closely just know that some folks got screwed -- and don't want to take the chance. One other factor may be the widespread stories warning people not to buy Blu-ray, because the player profile is getting updated, and many older players are not upgradeable. Either way, the backers of Blu-ray can't be all that thrilled that the end of the standards battle didn't lead to a jump in sales. Perhaps they should have spent a bit more time coming up with reasons for consumers to buy rather than wasting all that time fighting with HD DVD.
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Filed Under: blu-ray, hd dvd, sales, standards battles
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Economics + The Cause
Additionally, if Americans' fanatacism toward picking a side in any "us v. them" engagement (sports, politics, societal issues, etc) is any indicator, once there was no "them", the passion for being proven "right" departed and took with it a factor that motivates otherwise unnecessary purchases. Less motivation = fewer sales.
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With DVDs you can easily (but illegally) put them on your iPod. You can take them in the car. Because DVD players are cheap, you can play them from any room in the house. DVDs are simply more versatile than Blu-rays.
And DVDs simply work. There have been numerous reports of Blu-rays such as "Live Free or Die Hard" simply not working due to DRM crap. People are sick of upgrading their computers, so they certainly do not want to upgrade their components. People expect, no, they demand that such devices just work.
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Re:
That's not true at all. If the quality is different, it's different. On my 1080p TV, with good cables, you can absolutely see a difference. We tested the theory by having friends and relatives over and 100% of the time they could tell whether the movie was 1080p or DVD. It's a matter of more than double the resolution... it's a big difference.
Now, as far as the slump in sales goes, it should be expected. With everyone running around talking about recessions, lay offs, housing markets tanking, etc, why would you think entertainment sales would increase? Especially the expensive side of entertainment sales.
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Re: Re:
However, I have no idea how large your living room is, whether you compared against an up-sampling DVD player, the quality of the Blu-ray/DVD transfer (let's face it, on some older movies even the quality of Blu-rays suck) and the size of your TV.
Even still, I guess what I should have said is that most people would not see a sufficient difference to upgrade.
I should point out that I'm not some sort of Blu-ray hater. I certainly love Blu-ray and rent them from Netflix over DVDs every time.
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Even the cheapest of my DVD players has never faltered with any movie I put in it and it doesn't need to be hook to anything but the TV itself.
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of course!
The prices are seriously exorbitant, and the storage space of the disks is intentionally capped (they're supposed to be 50gig each layer, instead we have 25....whups! Kinda like how they tried to make dual layer dvd's unavailable/no major consumer drivers that could write them available to "discourage piracy"), and there are different versions that will not play on all devices nor play all videos.
Bluray will never see a drop of my money, it's all going to independent artists who continue to suck up more and more.
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They play a couple games, but purchased it primarily as a Blu-Ray player.
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Drop in sales has good reason
In fact, sales in all other domains dropped too during this time period, as they do EVERY YEAR during that same time period.
Dont look too much into this.
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Re: Drop in sales has good reason
Er... I said in the post that there were seasonal aspects to it -- but that's missing the point. The drop wasn't from December to January, which would make sense, but from January to February.
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BLU-RAY intermediate solution
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Sony_BMG_CD_copy_protection_scandal
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Um...this is abit of a narrow sample isn't it?
other sources suggest bluray's outlook is abit better...
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It's The PS3 That Matters
It's ridiculous to say Blu-ray sales are down when the best/cheapest/most popular player -- the PS3 -- isn't included in the research.
The NPD is only looking at "standalone" players, which doesn't include the PS3.
You can't base any trend on this. Throw in the PS3 sales numbers and then make a conclusion.
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Re: It's The PS3 That Matters
Why the hell would anyone buy a stand alone player that isn't upgradable to the 2.0 when they can get a PS3 that is the same price as the cheapest player and can do more?
Yeah, those numbers sound a little off.
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Re: Re: It's The PS3 That Matters
Just because the machine can also play Blue Ray Movies doesn't make it a Blue Ray Player.
The same way a PS2 is not a DVD player, just because it happens to also be able to play DVD's.
These machines are primarily Game Consoles and as such are targeted to Gamers. Most people wouldn't even consider purchasing a game console to watch movies on.
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incorrect
Plenty of people have talked about buying gaming systems for express purposes other than what they were intended.
If I were to buy bluray, I as well would only do it via buying a PS3. Note the if: I will never support bluray, but if I did, that would be how. Why pay for a single use device when you can turn a PS3 eventually into a fully functional PC? Logic? Oh wait, maybe someone needs the "all in one mediacard reader" in the bluray player. Yeah, thats it.
Remember when people were making nice linux boxes out of xboxes? aka http://www.xbox-linux.org/
Or the yellowdog linux people have on PS3? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux_for_PlayStation_3
Oh wait, here's a more direct one: Ever heard of xbox media center? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_Media_Center
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Re: incorrect
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Re: Re: Re: It's The PS3 That Matters
You are wrong, wrong, wrong. The PS3 is a blu-ray player and I believe it's the single most popular one out there. Even the industry considers it so - Buena Vista had a 5 free disks offer and PS3 was eligible.
I, personally, bought a PS3 for blu-ray + PS *2* play. I have not yet bought a PS3 game for it; I may eventually but in the meantime I have bought BD's.
It makes sense that the PS3 would be a big Christmas seller and then drop some the next month and start slowly climbing back up.
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Re: It's The PS3 That Matters
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Pricing of Discs
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Disc prices here too
I've gotten a pile of clearance HD-dvd discs in that time for ~$10 each.
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Blu ray sales down
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PS3 is a games machine
My feeling is that Blu-Ray players need to get down around $100 in order to start picking up steam. Either that, or there needs to be some industry strong-arming to kill off DVD and force the move.
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There are PS3s out there that have never been used to play a blu-ray movie, and there are some out there that do nothing but. As far as counting towards the success of the format, it should count partially towards the total... 1/2, 1/3, 1/10... the trouble is, I don't think anybody knows what the proportion really is. I'm curious what percentage of PS3s are hooked up to standard def televisions?
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Economy & Over Priced Hardware
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So Called Missing PS3 Sales
PS3 sales rose only 4% from January to February. I say only because every other system's sales rose more than 4%. the Xbox 360 rose 11% and the Wii 58%
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/03/13/february-npd-industry-sales-hit-1-33b-xbox-360-still-traili ng/
and in case you're wondering about march, PS3 sales went DOWN 9%, while 360 rose 3% and Wii rose 40%.
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/04/17/march-npd-wii-smash-bros-on-top-software-sales-surge/
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It's not marketed as a Blu-Ray player, the Playstation brand has always been a gaming brand. Of course there are exceptions but the fact of the matter is the PS3 is a gaming machine and key driver of sales is and always will be its games catalog. The Blu-Ray player is a bonus but totally secondary for the vast majority of buyers.
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Yeap.
Im sick of DRM. And with blu-ray, its not even funnay. Even the _Still Images_ have water-marks. You cant put them on your ipod and they can shutdown a dvd-player becuase the blu-ray releasing co. doesnt like that brand.
google : blu-ray and DRM.
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Lack of Content and Limit of Medium
Very few of my >1000 DVDs will be re-purchased in HD format. Certainly not at $25-30 USD each.
Movie type entertainment is just not worth that money. This has less to do with the quality and more to do with the limited entertainment value of sitting in a dark room watching a rapid series of 2 dimensional still images flash by on a flat screen.
By comparison, a good $50 video game gives me about 48 hours of entertainment. Seems a much better entertainment value.
Even my bike, on a per-hour-of-entertainment, is a much better value.
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Sony
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The real issue, as mentioned elsewhere, is the economy. Sales of everything have tanked.
As for up-converting being as good as blu-ray, I have both blu-ray and up-converting and I can most definitely see the difference. However, I will not be replacing my old DVDs--only a few treasured and new purchases. Everything costs more now, and food and gas come first.
Prices of blu-ray players have remained static, and any minor fluctuation is due to seasonal differences.
Older blu-ray models will be able to play the movies, but may not be able to use the special features. Since most people buy movies for the movies, not being able to upgrade the blu-ray player is really not an issue.
The average Jack and Jill does not care about DRM.
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What was it that happend two years ago in congress? Something about the American people have spoken. Well, hope your all happy. Can't blame the one at the top, he doen't write bills to drain the value of the dollar. Forcing lenders to make risky loans (which lowers the dollar) and then calling them assholes and preditory lenders for doing exactly what congress told them. You guys have no sense. Don't bitch to me about losing jobs (GM), paying for light bulbs (2011), or saving the environment until you all stop using gas, electricity, or any other form of energy that creates a carbon footprint.
Nasa NOW says that we may be in for Global cooling for the next 10 to 25 years. Fuck you Al Gore!!
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Myth Busting?
Minor fluctuation?
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/blu-ray-player-prices-hit-2008-highs-competition-dw indles,5010.html
I don't know where you've been getting your prices from but some of the players before the war ended for BluRay's were as much as a $100 cheaper, on average from week to week.
I bought the Samsung BD-P1400 in October of last year as a birthday gift for myself, before the holiday season. It was almost as cheap as it was in January.
Only a couple players came down in price, which was good as some of those players were around $1000. Now the article I posted is a bit older and the chart only goes up to March 12th., but go look for yourself on the prices of the players in the list. The cheap one on the list, the Sony BDP-S300 was at $307. If you check around it's price is now $399 just like the rest of the players. These aren't seasonal changes, these are due to a unchallenged playing field.
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Re: Myth Busting?
In fact, we'll probably find that the economy is accounting for the costs of these machines, same as it will be accounting for the cost for everything else. Transportation costs more, materials costs more, the American dollar is weak and most of these machines are manufactured offshore. Go us for managing to drive manufacturing jobs out of the country.
I pay close to 30% more for a loaf of bread now, and I don't think the price change is based on a conspiracy among bread makers.
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Re: Re: Myth Busting?
Manufacturing jobs left with NAFTA, a clinton fuckup. the root of all problems concerning money is the value of our dollar. find my other post about myth busting.
blu-ray prices went up and will continue to go up to try and re-coop some of the billion dollars that they spent assasinating HD-DVD. BD's started selling about the same price as the HD-DVD's did, around $20-25, and now they're up to $35? Tell me who's surprised. Sony can suck my balls.
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Re: Re: Re: Myth Busting?
Environmentalist do not support the current use of bioethanol. It has encouraged cutting down of forests in order to plant crops to support the industry, as well as drive up demand for corn, which is needed for food. In addition bioethanol production has a massive water requirement, making it doubly damaging to the environment.
Environmentalists support using less fuel by using more public transportation, or vehicles that get excellent milage.
As for the cost of blu-ray discs, that hasn't changed. If anything, I am seeing cheaper blu-ray discs now than several months ago.
You know, all of this information is online. Most items related to blu-ray can be seen at Amazon, where you can also see that the demand for blu-ray players has outstripped the supply.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Myth Busting?
Then tell me, shelley, why the hell I am forced to put it in my gas tank. Considering that you can't be an enviro-mental-ist without also being on the left (sterotype alert), it surley isn't the right forcing this down our throats. And if that's the case, then the enviro-mental-ists in fact ARE for using biofuels.
You seem to be part of the spectrum for preservation of the environment, what's next? What will I be forced to buy, use, give up, or just plain let go? I am on board when it comes to biodegradable stuff, but, I am in no way shape or form sold on the fact that we can change the climate of this planet. I have no problem using coal or oil or nuclear or any thing else for that matter. Just let me buy my friggen lightbulbs for 25cents a piece.
China? Since when did they take any of our manufacturing jobs? the early 70's when tech was first starting to blossom? The fact is that they have always held the market on cheap labor and high production. If it were my money that I was investing, I would manufacture over there too. Nobody can afford union wages. It is very difficult for those who can't afford much to buy American. Whose fault is that?
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Economy isn't to blame this time
While most will blame the economy, the true source is the price of the DVDs themselves, being at $24.99 or higher. People are fed up with the prices, both purchases and rentals.
Netflix is about to increase its Blu-ray rental fee because, by their words, these DVDs cost more than standard DVDs and they can't continue to offer the rentals at the current price.
This isn't all surprising, as the moment the format war was over, many websites posted Blu-ray players with new higher prices. Both Circuit City and BestBuy raised a Samsung player I had my eyes on by $150.
Once again, I'll point out that once consumers have no choice, they're being screwed. Yes, I understand revenue needs to be made in order to cover the cost of development, but doing so at unnecessary inflated prices isn't the answer.
As several pointed out, a PS3 (at $400) is the cheapest Blu-ray player out there, but how many consumers actually know this? Not many.
I have about 60 movies in my collection. These are the movies I can watch over and over without fear of them getting tiring. Chances are, I will never purchase a Blu-ray player nor any other form of entertainment.
I'm tired of the industry telling me how to enjoy their product.
Screw them all and let them rot in hell.
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Not looking at all the factors.
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Blu-Ray
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Format war not over
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blueray slump
I agree with you, the quality IS different. People arguing about the quality are missing the point.
I consider myself typical to most right now. I'd love to upgrade to HD. The flatscreen prices have finally dropped enough for me to seriously look into it.
Verdict? Hell no.
For me to enjoy the "quality difference" I have to get a new TV (because on my albeit good quality CRT TV it won't make any difference), I have to get a new set-top box (that's another $500) and I have to get all sorts of cables and doodads (lets say another 100$). A blueray player (might as well buy a PS3) and get movies (29.99 to 49.99 in Canada these days). That's a HUGE investment all of a sudden.
Forget about the stupid DRM issues which are important to ME but not to everyone, so I didn't go into them.
Or, I can just enjoy what I have now, which is by no means bad and like someone above said, I can watch them in any tv in my house, rip them to my iPod if I want or whatever.
There's ZERO advantage for me to spend that much to switch. The "higher quality image" isn't worth emptying my bank account and shackling myself to one TV with draconian DRM.
I really hope some people from Sony or whatever are watching forums like these and get a clue...although I realize that its extremely unlikely.
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Blue-Ray Sales
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A little but of clarity...if you get this far
So we know that standalone player sales are going down, but we also know that PS3 sales are generally increasing month to month. Sadly there is no way to know how many of those machines are being used for Blu-ray, exclusively or not. I think the only real indicator of this is media sales...it should makes sense that if people are buying PS3s for the purpose of watching Blu-ray movies that movie sales themselves have increased (but I admit this is hard to tell since more films being available generally means more sales overall).
As mentioned in this link http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2008/05/bluray_booming.html Blu-ray disc sales are steadily increasing, which indicates that some of those PS3 sales are going to movie watching. The article's author is sadly trying to focus on a single aspect of performance to back his own beliefs, i.e. taking the context out of the overall view and claiming that "Despite Winning The HD Format War, Blu-Ray Sales Dropped" even though I could rewrite the article header to be "After winning the format war Blu-ray sales soar 351%"...but that wouldn't be very accurate either, would it?
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Anybody Heard of HD Movies On Demand - - for $6 ?
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