Are Entertainment Industry Tactics Working?
from the or-is-it-a-dead-cat-bounce dept
It's been somewhat amusing over the last day or so to see a bunch of our usual critics all submit the same exact story with some sort of triumphant "I told you so!!!!!" (usually in less friendly language). It's a report that music sales are up in Sweden following the strict anti-piracy law that went into effect earlier this year. The claim is that this is proof that the RIAA/MPAA/IFPI/BPI/etc strategies work. To them, this is clear, irrefutable evidence that draconian measures to crack down on unauthorized file sharing really does make people buy. That would be quite interesting if true, but our friends employed by these companies might want to wait a bit before breaking out the champagne over a dead cat bounce.First, there are some who are questioning the actual numbers. So far, the only numbers have come directly from the IFPI, who hasn't provided much in the way of detail (and have a long history of publishing questionable, fact-challenged numbers). In fact, the very lack of detail would likely indicate that there are extenuating circumstances here. And, when we're talking about Sweden, it has to also be noted that services like Spotify (which dragged the labels kicking and screaming into the modern world) were just launched at the very end of last year. So, it could be that it was one of these more modern services that helped convince people to buy music rather than any crackdown. But, of course, the bigger question is whether or not any boost is sustainable. It was reported that there was a drop in file sharing after the Swedish IPRED law went into effect (though, again, many argue that the "drop" was simply because more people started using encryption and those who measure file sharing traffic had no way to deal with it, so pretended they all stopped). Yet, it didn't take long for the traffic numbers to bounce back up.
And that's the issue. If your entire business model is based on whacking people with a stick and telling them what they can't do, you may get brief moments of compliance, but at the first chance they get to go back to a more consumer-friendly system, they will. So while our friends in the entertainment industry will likely misread this situation into believing that its strategy of pissing off pretty much everyone makes business sense, let's wait and see how this works out in the next year or so. Dead cat bounces can fool lots of folks, but there are very few industries that succeed by basing their future on such things.
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Filed Under: anti-piracy, copyright, dead cat bounce, music sales, sweden
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The bigger they are the harder they bounce, as my grand-daddy, also a cat bouncer, used to say.
I'll share one last piece of advice; the secret to successfully bouncing a cat is to stuff them full of rubber, once they're dead. Of course.
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Actually you need a very dead cat.... one thats very dead, bloated, and ripe. This way you can advertise before hand telling people how high the cat will bounce. You can claim that the bloated cat and the trampoline you set up are not the reason the cat bounced so high.
Dead cats dont really bounce ... they tend to hit the ground hard and then get all maggot ridden because no one wants to pick them up afterwards ....
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... Big Ole GRIN
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I wish Mike that you would apply the same diligence to stories that point in the other direction. You are only too happy to claim all sorts of things (like the UK music business expanding), when a good look at the numbers shows otherwise.
It's an interesting article that shows perhaps that not everything is as you wish.
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And the trends state that copyright will be rendered obsolete in the near future.
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You were saying that there was no way I'd ever post this story, and then I did, and you don't even admit that you were wrong. You amuse me. Now I know why you're anonymous all the time though. Can't take being called on your actions...
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So sorry, you need to start paying attention, because you are confusing your posters.
so DUDE, get it right next time, okay?
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No, no confusion at all. Identical IP addresses. Same person 1 minute and 45 seconds apart.
And, no, it wasn't "cached." We do use caching on the site, but nothing will cache for more than 60 seconds. You were nearly half an hour late.
So sorry, you need to start paying attention, because you are confusing your posters.
I can reveal the image of the two comments next to each other with the IP address revealed if you want proof. Just give me permission to display your IP address and I will do so.
so DUDE, get it right next time, okay?
I did.
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You got it wrong, sorry. I suspect you may have an anon faking IPs or something.
(hint: I use caching on my browser - that way I avoid having to reload all the stuff that crowds up the page... learn about technology, it's your friend)
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There are plenty of other anons -- including one who is our "usual troll" which I know you are not. But this was you. You posted a series of comments in a row, including two right in a row, a minute and 45 seconds apart. The first one mocked me for ignoring this story, the second one then attacked my take on this story.
You got it wrong, sorry. I suspect you may have an anon faking IPs or something.
All faking from the same IP address writing in the same style?
Um. No. It was you.
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You know me, I don't have any shyness to post my comments and stand up for them (even when you are mocking me). There is a a "new" coward that has been posting on here for a little while, and that one tends to go all over the road. I have called him out a few times already, mostly because he writes like a baiting teenager rather than someone of experience.
Yes, I called you out for not posting this article (you had it since yesterday), but I certainly didn't make the post in this thread.
Sorry to disappoint you.
Oh, BTW, you are aware that my ISP uses gateways an asymmetrical routing, right?
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I didn't say it was in this thread. It was in the thread for the previous post. And, yes, it was absolutely you as you just admitted.
Oh, BTW, you are aware that my ISP uses gateways an asymmetrical routing, right?
Yup, that's obvious. I don't know who you are, but I can tell when it's you posting, because your writing style and the gateway.
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Sorry, but you are wrong Mike. I would go to court and sewar to it. Sorry that you are wrong. Perhaps you will learn something from this experience.
As for my writing style, you need to be more observant. The person you think is me in this thread isn't anything like me. Too bad.
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Dude. Read. I said "on another thread." Literally, I said: "I find it amusing that you posted this comment exactly one minute and forty-five seconds after posting a comment on another thread mocking me for totally ignoring this story."
Go. Scroll up. Read it. Then maybe apologize.
I never said this thread, I said another thread, and now you've admitted it.
But, of course, you still haven't admitted you were wrong in saying that I "ignored" this story. Some people never learn.
As for my writing style, you need to be more observant. The person you think is me in this thread isn't anything like me. Too bad.
I know your style quite well, and I wasn't confusing you with anyone else in this thread. I was correctly identifying your comment in this thread and the previous one in another thread that said I was ignoring this story, even though I had already posted about it.
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Oh anonymous cowards, we're so confusing. Yet, copyright abolishionists would rather have that anonymity dressed up, because then the copyright infringers could hide some more.
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And the trends state that copyright will be rendered obsolete in the near future.
Since I don't think that copyright will be rendered obsolete, why would I post that?
Sorry, but you seriously got your anonymi mixed up.
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No, of course not. Don't be an idiot. An IP address by itself would not be proof of who a person is (what the RIAA claims). But, if a single person is using the same IP address to post multiple comments one after another using the same writing style, you can make a reasonable assumption that they are the same person. That's all I did. I did not say I know who the guy is (I have no idea). I did not say that I can specifically identify anything about him. But there is significant evidence that he posted two comments less than two minutes apart, first mocking me for not being willing to post this story, and then complaining about how I did post the story. I find it quite amusing.
I'm surprised you wouldn't understand the difference. Odd.
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Yes, you know that might be sort of amusing if we had ever made any of those arguments AND we were discussing a case in a court of law where establishing exact identity had grave consequences.
But we haven't and we're not. So you just look like a dick.
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Just a friendly technical comment here...
Naked IP addresses are usually unreliable indicators of identity because many - maybe most ISPs use DHCP, a protocol which assigns IP addresses to users from a pool of addresses on a rotating basis. When a user logs on, he is assigned an IP address. When he logs off or when his lease is up, that address is released back into the pool to be assigned to another user. This applies more to dialup than to broadband, because a broadband user typically is always on, with the IP assigned to the cable or DSL modem. So while IP addresses for broadband users are more stable than for dialup users, they can change.
However, if the same address appears multiple times over the space of a few minutes, I'd say in all likelihood they're from the same person. Most people don't log off and on every couple of minutes.
I'd say you got him.
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Maybe you are forgetting that Mike can mine your IP address so maybe there are two of you sharing (as if!) your connection.
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Also, remember this: if you spend a little time looking at most chat boards, you can force an IP address in with the post string, such that you can have any IP you like (appearances).
All I know is in this case, Mike is very, very wrong. Too bad he won't admit it.
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See, now, what was this post about again?
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Good luck in the future!
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Are Entertainment Industry Tactics Working?
Absolutely....
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Re: Are Entertainment Industry Tactics Working?
I think you missed the point.
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Re: Are Entertainment Industry Tactics Working?
Did you see the story about "Nasty Old People"? Instead of loading their movie up with DRM and threatening to sue anybody who dared to pirate it, they put it out on Pirate Bay for free download to all and sundry, with buttons at the bottom for anyone wanting to make contributions. Now as a result, an Indie movie that probably wouldn't have made it past selling DVDs to a few locals is now getting worldwide exposure, and the producers have recouped a significant portion of their investment.
A slap in the face for the MPAA!
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I am sure everyone here has their favorite hypothesis and is eager to share it (sans data, naturally).
It would be interesting to know how much "fear of getting caught" plays into the equation. This Swedish phenomenon seems to be consistent with the idea that it's a factor, but we don't have enough data to correlate or say how much of a factor it might be.
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*Note I said artist not the collection agencies which loose the checks and are unable to "find" the artists and treat all but the top dog like crap. Because who cares about the other 99% of the artists when you have three top artists making money for themselves and everyone else making money for you.
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It would be interesting to see the entertainment industry figure out what 'pirates' really want. It would be less costly than lobbying for draconian laws and suing people of modest means into poverty.
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It would be interesting to know how much "fear of getting caught" plays into the equation.
Not at all. Fear of getting caught motivates people to not infringe copyrights. It doesn't motivate pirates to buy music (or anything else).
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Why buy when you can download?
- In the case of music and movies, you get all the liner notes, nice professional case and silkscreened medium, and so on. The medium is likely to last longer, too.
- If it's software I can usually get support.
- The quality of downloads is often compromised in the case of A/V. Compressing the snot out of the files makes the files nice and small, but they're lossy compression techniques. The result looks or sounds crappy.
- Any time you download illegally you take a chance on getting something that doesn't work, that's not what it says on the label, that contains malware. Yes, I realize that's possible buying legitimately, too, but much less likely.
And last but not least:
- If it's worth using, it's worth supporting. If somebody makes something I enjoy I prefer to encourage them to make more. Call it enlightened self-interest.
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Thanks 'All of MP3"
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Are Entertainment Industry Tactics Working?
Why yes. Yes they are.
Don't forget to call/fax/write/email your representative about Obama's ACTA Tent Party this Thanksgiving!
Be sure to ask for more transparency!
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Sweden..
But in saying that it probably won't be long until people revert back to other ways or find out you can download the tunes from YouTube for free and without being noticed as a file sharer on the well known illegal DL sites.
Anyways it's all speculation until the stats say differently. :-)
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Linky Please.
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Re: Linky Please.
We rarely link directly to company websites, as that leaves us open to search spam situations.
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The Numbers Could be Honest
The numbers could be honest, the question is if they are relevant.
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They are working!
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Debates are Good(tm)
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Re: Debates are Good(tm)
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Working very well..
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Re: Working very well..
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