DailyDirt: The End Of The World As We Know It
from the urls-we-dig-up dept
Predicting the end of the world has been a famously difficult calculation. Population growth trends have not proven to follow a continuously exponential path, so we've easily avoided previous calls of Malthusian catastrophe. However, it's still possible that we've only managed to postpone the sixth major extinction event, and our technological cleverness won't be able to save us next time. Here are just a few modern predictions of doom that could ruin some retirement plans.- NASA recently issued a statement clarifying that a study by university researchers was NOT "solicited, directed or reviewed by NASA" because the research was going viral... and predicted the end of our civilization. However, NASA did fund the development of the "Human And Nature DYnamical" (HANDY) model which was used to reach the conclusion that civilization could collapse due to unsustainable resource exploitation and growing inequality in wealth distribution. [url]
- Global population growth could strain our ability to feed billions of people in the coming decades. We've overcome agricultural challenges before with the Green Revolution, but decreasing biodiversity and increasing genetically modified crops may pose significant problems in the future. [url]
- Our planet could cross a dangerous threshold in 2036 -- when it's predicted that global temperatures might be 2°C higher than preindustrial times. Maybe we'll be able to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels by then, or figure out a way to cost effectively sequester atmospheric CO2... maybe. [url]
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Filed Under: civilization, doom and gloom, global climate change, green revolution, malthusian catastrophe, population growth
Companies: nasa
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Necessity...
Humanity does not solve a problem until it shows up. We ultimately will not give a shit till people start dying. The problem with the left is that these problems are used to generate religious fundamentalism. The problem with the right is overt ignorance in preference of just making money and to hell with it all.
Both sides are so fully of sheeple there is no hope.
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Re: Necessity...
Explain how religious fundamentalism is a result of progressive/liberal policies. Because everytime I see the words "religious fundamnetalism" I think of the Taliban and those that would want to make this country a Theocracy. Typically both are of the Conservative camp.
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Fortunately, I should be retired by then. Heck, given my drinking habits and weight, I might well be dead. And, given my career as a Unix Administrator, I'll be thankful I don't have to deal with the Y2038 problem.
Deal with it, youngsters!
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Re:
You would hope that most hardware will be 64-bit compatible by then and that the more archaic hardware has long been replaced.
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Re: Re:
It's also not likely to present anything like a disaster, since people aren't ignoring the problem and there remains time to resolve it in a considered way. Worst case, it will be like the Y2K issue: it will cost money, but the sky won't fall.
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Differing Societies
Interesting thought. How will aid agencies react as things get worse?
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U R right
Earth will still exist. Human beings being alive on the Earth or anyplace else in the cosmos? That is the crapshoot.
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Dang
Oh and the feeding the world bit? GMOs will help us be able to feed the world, not keep us from being able to do so. It's sickening to see the anti GMO crowd condemning kids is Asia to blindness because of their fear mongering about golden rice.
Is tech dirt becoming a progressive blog now, or is it still about copyright and patent issues in technology?
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Re: Dang
It's amazing how some people will cling to a lie (e.g. 'the hockey stick was fraud') even after it has been found false by multiple investigations AND further research.
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Re: Re: Dang
Mann was right, you always get the hockey stick.
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Density of Errors
The article says, "Population growth trends have not proven to follow a continuously exponential path..."
That is true if we regard only short-term trends (year by year). But Malthus was talking about generations, not years. This is exactly like saying that you can divine climate truths out of short-base analyses. Problem: you can't.
Plotted on the larger time-scale represented by generations - which is to say, over a course of centuries - population growth has indeed been exponential. It's a grave error to get lost in the noise of year-by-year changes in the rate of growth, just as it's a grave error to think that the world is warming because it's snowing.
The article continues, "...so we've easily avoided previous calls of Malthusian catastrophe."
Um, no. The reason we have *thus far* averted Malthusian catastrophe is food production and distribution has kept pace with population growth, more or less. Not perfectly, but well enough. Avoiding a population die-back has nothing to do with short-base trending and everything to do with food.
The article continues, "However, it's still possible that we've only managed to postpone the sixth major extinction event..."
The author clearly thinks that the 6th major extinction event involves people dying off, and since we haven't died off yet, we've postponed it. This is frighteningly ignorant.
The extinction event is well underway, and it refers not to a single species but to a great many of them. Species are being extinguished at a rate which is matched only by five previous extinction rates in the geological record.
Then the article says, "...and our technological cleverness won't be able to save us next time."
Technological cleverness might save *our* species, for a while. It's very unlikely to save *all* species. We're notoriously bad at preserving ecosystem diversity, and more tech almost certainly isn't going to affect ecosystem diversity in a positive direction.
Please, Techdirt. I like your site, but if you are going to write about subjects with which you are unfamiliar, then at least consult some subject matter experts before you publish. Otherwise you will spread misinformation, and that doesn't help at all.
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Re: Density of Errors
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climate change
(/s jic)
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Re: climate change
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Population bomb
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Michael Ho doesn't care how many more innocent boys at the margins of society die right now just so long he personally can feel better about the lives of strangers far in the future.
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