A Look Back On Andrew Keen's Failed Predictions

from the oh-look-at-that... dept

Thu, Jan 27th 2011 3:10pm — Mike Masnick

In writing my recent post about the failure of Google's Knol, I went back to look at what I had written previously about it and I dug up a post from October of 2008, in which I discussed a series of predictions from Andrew Keen that struck me as particularly shortsighted and wrong. It was right after the latest economic crisis had shifted into overdrive and Keen had predicted that this economic change would lead to the end of "open source" and "free" business models because people would have to actually start making money. He also predicted that things like Facebook and Twitter would collapse in the economic realities of 2009:

The altruistic ideal of giving away one's labor for free appeared credible in the fat summer of the Web 2.0 boom when social-media startups hung from trees, Facebook was valued at $15 billion, and VCs queued up to fund revenue-less "businesses" like Twitter. But as we contemplate the world post-bailout, when economic reality once again bites, only Silicon Valley's wealthiest technologists can even consider the luxury of donating their labor to the latest fashionable, online, open-source project.

How's that prediction looking today? Right. (Update: For those who missed it, there's a sarcmark around that "Right")

In that article, he predicted the success of a bunch of websites and how they'd beat the "free" or "open" competitors. I picked out a series of those that I thought were particularly unlikely to happen and asked Andrew if he'd like to put some money behind his predictions -- with the bet being decided by who was right in October 2010 (I didn't choose all of Keen's predictions, because some of them were nonsensical and did not involve actual competitors). Here's what I wrote:

I'd like to make a bet. While there are different estimates as to how long any recession might be, the general consensus is that we should hopefully start pulling out by the end of 2009 or early 2010. So, let's pick a few of these that we can measure, and I'll bet Andrew Keen $100 (really money, Andrew) that in two years, on October 22, 2010, Wikipedia still gets more traffic than Knol, that Google is still much, much, much bigger than Mahalo (if they're even considered competitors any more), and that YouTube gets more traffic than Hulu.

If any one of those is untrue, I'll write him a check.

Tragically, when October 22, 2010 came around, I had forgotten about this original post. Also, Keen never responded to the bet, either because he was unaware of it or because he didn't really believe his own predictions. Either way, it looks like he made the right decision, whether on purpose or not, because every one of the predictions I made were correct compared to his predictions. Knol didn't beat Wikipedia. Mahalo did not beat Google. Hulu did not beat YouTube (though, Hulu is doing well for now).

I had never met Keen when I wrote that original article, though I have had some fun conversations with him in the past year, so I'm interested to see if he's willing to revisit his original predictions and to admit that perhaps he was wrong with his analysis of how "free" and "open source" would be knocked out by the economic crisis.

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Filed Under: andrew keen, predictions
Companies: google, hulu, knol, mahalo, wikipedia, youtube

27 Comments

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Jeff, 27 Jan 2011 @ 3:33pm

who is that?
Should I know who Andrew Keen is?
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- Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 3:36pm
  
  Re: who is that?
  He's an asshole Internet elitist, so no.
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  - Rose M. Welch (profile), 27 Jan 2011 @ 3:37pm
    
    Re: Re: who is that?
    ^^ Oops, that was me. I wasn't signed in yet. :P
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- Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 3:37pm
  
  Re: who is that?
  second that, i had to google him to know
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- Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 4:05pm
  
  Re: who is that?
  Andrew Keen is one of the guys who tweeted "Happy Birthday" to Keith Olbermann Today.
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  - Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 4:15pm
    
    Re: Re: who is that?
    I'm sorry that means what? All I know is Keith Olbermann is no longer on MSNBC, and today actually is his Birthday.
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    - Jose_X, 27 Jan 2011 @ 6:33pm
      
      Re: Re: Re: who is that?
      And a person named Andrew Keen took advantage of a 'revenue-less "business"' for the occasion.
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      - Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 7:38pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: who is that?
        But Twitter failed! How can he use a service that has failed? I predict that that makes no sense.
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Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 3:44pm

I hear smartphones come with calendar reminders for events like these.

Just saying.
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Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 3:51pm

"He also predicted that things like Facebook and Twitter would collapse in the economic realities of 2009:"

but things like Open source, facebook, twitter, etc... (at least the free use of these and similar services) may collapse in the legal realities of the future, if we don't quickly eliminate our bought politicians and replace them with ones that serve the public (and not corporate) interests.
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bob, 27 Jan 2011 @ 4:00pm

Facebook and Twitter aren't open source
Twitter and Facebook are ad supported communications platforms. They bear little resemblance to open source software written by many people. There's little collaborative going on. Oh, I realize that taken together the tweets occasionally convey something but that's relatively rare.

Furthermore it's not clear that YouTube is actually winning because it's supported by a huge subsidy from Google's ads. We don't know how much Hulu is subsidized but I see them as vastly different platforms. I never look to YouTube on purpose. I only go there when another site points me to some viral content. I go to Hulu as a destination to watch quality shows.

Also, it's not clear that HuffingtonPost is beating theAtlantic because it's paying more and more people. It's starting to become theAtlantic, at least in part.

There are other cases where the so-called open platform failed. Does anyone watch CNN's iReport? Nah. People watch CNN.

While you're right that the whole thing is kind of bogus because sites aren't even competitors, I think you're missing something here. Aside from Mahalo, the other sites are winning. And everyone is complaining that Google search results are jammed with spam and so maybe Mahalo is just about to start winning.
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- Rose M. Welch (profile), 27 Jan 2011 @ 4:05pm
  
  Re: Facebook and Twitter aren't open source
  People watch CNN.
  
  People watch the news on TV? I mean... People not eligible for the senior discount at Denney's?
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  - The Groove Tiger (profile), 28 Jan 2011 @ 11:07am
    
    Re: Re: Facebook and Twitter aren't open source
    Well, the Daily Show counts right? I mean, bittorrents of shows are like TV, or something. On demand.
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- Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 4:27pm
  
  Re: Facebook and Twitter aren't open source
  Until I read this post, I had forgotten that Mahalo even existed. This may just be a personal failing on my part, but I would argue that it may be anecdotal evidence that Mahalo isn't exactly poised to demolish Google.
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  - Marcus Carab (profile), 27 Jan 2011 @ 4:39pm
    
    Re: Re: Facebook and Twitter aren't open source
    Seconded. In fact I could clearly remember what Mahalo was at all. I had to google it.
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    - freak (profile), 27 Jan 2011 @ 5:02pm
      
      Re: Re: Re: Facebook and Twitter aren't open source
      I've never even heard of mahalo before. Googling now . . .
      
      Huh. Looks like a really ugly content-free page that's trying to pretend it had useful things. Is that a site-wide search bar?
      Oh . . . that's its actual search the web bar, shoved up into a small corner of the website, where I had to go hunting for it, providing a near useless array of links with unhelpful text when I try to use it. I search up mahalo on google, it immediately tells me mahalo is supposed to b a search engine. I search up mahalo on mahalo, and it gives me a lot of useless trash besides that basic info.
      
      And, for hilarity points, the mahalo page about mahalo is cluttered with tons of google ads, to the point of obscuring information.
      
      Why was mahalo expected not to fail catastrophically?
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      - Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 5:12pm
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Facebook and Twitter aren't open source
        Unclear. You would have to ask Bob.
        
        Perhaps they were trying to corner the Hawaiian-language market?
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Anonymous Coward, 27 Jan 2011 @ 7:41pm

The second anything starts producing profit it starts dying.
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Hephaestus (profile), 27 Jan 2011 @ 8:41pm

Speaking of bets ... the free techdirt CrystalBall is still open
" Also, Keen never responded to the bet"

I created an open betting pool for people about half a year ago ... It was how well the Times of London would do behind a paywall. If anyone is still interested The betting is open again. Closest to the number of subscribers when the Times of London shuts down its paywall gets a free techdirt CrystalBall subscription ... I will also throw in a 3 months subscription to the times of london.
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- Jay (profile), 27 Jan 2011 @ 10:11pm
  
  Re: Speaking of bets ... the free techdirt CrystalBall is still open
  I'll be generous and say under or approx. 30,000.
  
  They'll be buying and generously giving it away before failure hits them.
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Mr Big Content, 27 Jan 2011 @ 10:32pm

Andrew Keen Is A Misunderstood Prophetic Genius
It seems like your completely missing the point of his article. His predictions where only meant to be understood in terms of that point in time. It's not fair to try to extrapolate them to some point in the future that even he cannot foresee. I think your just jealous of the high reputation he enjoys among analysts for his far-seeing vision, and your just trying to pull down a tall poppy who stands so much taller than all the others.
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- Anonymous Coward, 28 Jan 2011 @ 4:25am
  
  Re: Andrew Keen Is A Misunderstood Prophetic Genius
  LOL
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Michael Kay, 28 Jan 2011 @ 2:33am

Open Source and Recession
A lot of open source software is written by professional programmers with spare time on their hands. So I would expect it to thrive in a recession, when professional programmers are made redundant and have spare time (funded by their redundancy money) before the next full-time job.
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pringerX (profile), 28 Jan 2011 @ 8:54am

Techdirt's predictions?
Actually, I'd be quite curious to see TD review a prediction it was wrong about, and analyze why it may have guessed wrong. Understanding one's errors is useful, so I mean this in the best way possible.
Or has TD always been so cautious that it has never made a wrong prediction?
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- Anonymous Coward, 28 Jan 2011 @ 10:11am
  
  Re: Techdirt's predictions?
  Mike has done that before. I think one of his posts looked back at all the predictions that he made that were wrong.
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- Mike Masnick (profile), 29 Jan 2011 @ 12:24am
  
  Re: Techdirt's predictions?
  Actually, I'd be quite curious to see TD review a prediction it was wrong about, and analyze why it may have guessed wrong. Understanding one's errors is useful, so I mean this in the best way possible.
  Or has TD always been so cautious that it has never made a wrong prediction?
  
  Yeah, from time to time we do that:
  
  http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20080418/013552884.shtml
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Jim C., 9 Apr 2012 @ 11:10pm

Keen was quite right about the dumbing-down effect that amateurs can have on public awareness of critical topics. It's not JUST the Internet, but the instant availability of bogus information posing as "sound science" is a scourge on knowledge.

The Internet has become a cesspool of global warming denial, with all sorts of bogus "facts" being copied and pasted as truths. All a denier has to do is search for some cherry-picked lie about science and gloat over how many hits it gets, as if that alone proves a point. In 2009, "ClimateGate" was a prime example, and the lies of false context persist to this day.
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