from the what-do-you-do... dept
A few folks have sent in Matthew Belloni's attempt to
quantify how much the leak of Wolverine "cost" at the box office. On one point we agree: the number is basically impossible to calculate in any reasonable way. Yet, that doesn't stop Belloni, whose estimates seem to be based on some odd assertions. His first number ($7.18 million) is based on the obviously untrue idea that everyone who downloaded the movie didn't buy a ticket. That makes no sense, and it's odd that it's even included. The second and third numbers ($15.75 million and $14 million) are based on comparisons to other "similar" movies which grossed a bit more in their opening weekends. But, in both cases, those movies actually got really good reviews. That's not the case with
Wolverine, which has received pretty damn bad reviews. Rotten Tomatoes has it
at only 37% positive reviews. That's really bad. And it's somewhat ridiculous to then compare it's opening weekend to Iron Man last year. Iron Man came in at
93%. Belloni claims these movies are "review proof" but offers no evidence of that whatsoever. I know I only saw Iron Man because of the awesome reviews, and since many people have associated the failure of the Hulk movie to bad early reviews, this is actually the first I've heard that these movies are somehow "review proof."
Belloni does include a somewhat snarky "$0" possibility if "the copyleft" was correct that the impact of the downloading didn't hurt the movie at all. But he doesn't do much to investigate that claim at all. He certainly doesn't explore that perhaps the real issue may not have been with the fact that the movie was leaked, but with the way 20th Century Fox responded to the leak. In acting like jerks, threatening everyone, and even
firing a reviewer, it also seems likely that some people purposely boycotted the opening weekend. Instead, if the studio had been smart and actually
responded in a smart way, it could have
increased interest in the actual movie. So, I'd argue that if there was any "loss" in opening weekend revenue, the fault would have to lie with the studio for its reaction, rather than the leak.
Either way, the movie still
brought in $87 million and destroyed the competition in the theaters this past weekend. It's difficult to see how anyone in Hollywood could claim with a straight face that the leak did much harm to the movie. The movie brought in a ton of money, and even if we grant the implausible theory that the leak "harmed" the theater revenue, once again it seems like if the studio and the theaters just focused on giving people a reason to see the film in the theaters, the leak would be totally meaningless.
Filed Under: box office, copyright, leaks, piracy, wolverine