I just tried to look up the government report that shows this inflection point but got Due to the lapse in government funding,... instead. There are actually 3 reports the NSF, US military and another agency that show growing trends in automation and job loss. Look them up when the .gov sites come back up.
I have been working on robotics for about 20 years now and have been thinking about this alot. Most of what you have said is unrealistic. Companies letting go of profits and paying a decent wage... not going to happen. The services sector is going to be automated away also. Doctors and lawyers are also not safe from automation. With projects like the qualcomm tricorder xprize 80 percent of what doctors do can be automated. It does not bode well ...
You don't think that self-driving cars won't *also* open up tremendous new jobs for people?
Quite the opposite, I also see the secondary job losses. More efficient use of roads means less people building roads. The lack of accidents means job loss in the automotive repair arena and insurance industry. The reduction in the need for meter maids as cars move themselves or pay the meter as needed. The lack of speeding and unsafe driving means no more tickets and a reduction in revenue for local police. Car sharing (not ridesharing) also means the loss of jobs in automotive manufacture.
We have reached an inflection point where robotics and automation are concerned and there is no going back.
We are getting to the point where the decreasing cost of technology and the increasing capabilities are actually beginning to affect the job market. Like most of the disruptive innovations before this one is creeping up on us slowly but is beginning to go exponential.
A great example is Foxconn purchasing 1 million robots, to replace about 1 million workers, in a nation (China) with relatively low wages. Another is the robot Baxter, by rethink robotics, which will be used to manufacture more Baxters, removing the need to hire employees for manufacture. Google's self driving car has the potential to remove about 10 million primary driving and secondary insurance, mechanics, body shop workers, etc out of the US economy. The secondary effects are due to accident reduction.
The 3D house printer I am working on, by generation 3, will be able to set itself up and print a house unsupervised in under a day. The finishing, wiring, plumbing, glazing, tiling, painting, etc will take another day and will be fully automated. I foresee major job losses in the construction sector, about 3-4 million of them.
The quest for profits will drive this forward, with companies that refuse to automate or roboticize becoming financially unviable and failing. No laws, rules, or regulations can prevent this from occurring. Any laws passed, by specific nations, to slow job loss, will cause the companies burdened by them to fail, as other nations become more efficient and cost effective due to automation.
The most amusing part of this whole story is the pseudo he used ... The Dread Pirate Roberts. Gut feel tells me someone will restart the silk road using that same exact name. Much like the books and the movie.
In the end, the NSA spying program is probably going to kill closed source software. Microsoft, Oracle, and their ilk are likely going to be feeling the repercussions for the next 20 years. If they last that long.
On the post: Luddites Are Almost Always Wrong: Technology Rarely Destroys Jobs
Re: Re: Re: Re:
This will become more and more regulated to prevent accidents. So custom ECU's are not something you will see much of.
Cars still will need maintenance.
Not so much if you look at the Tesla Model S. Also think automated repair ...
On the post: Luddites Are Almost Always Wrong: Technology Rarely Destroys Jobs
Re: Re: Re: Re:
On the post: Luddites Are Almost Always Wrong: Technology Rarely Destroys Jobs
Re: Re: I have to disagree with you on this one
On the post: Luddites Are Almost Always Wrong: Technology Rarely Destroys Jobs
Re: Re: I have to disagree with you on this one
On the post: Luddites Are Almost Always Wrong: Technology Rarely Destroys Jobs
Re: Re:
Quite the opposite, I also see the secondary job losses. More efficient use of roads means less people building roads. The lack of accidents means job loss in the automotive repair arena and insurance industry. The reduction in the need for meter maids as cars move themselves or pay the meter as needed. The lack of speeding and unsafe driving means no more tickets and a reduction in revenue for local police. Car sharing (not ridesharing) also means the loss of jobs in automotive manufacture.
We have reached an inflection point where robotics and automation are concerned and there is no going back.
On the post: Luddites Are Almost Always Wrong: Technology Rarely Destroys Jobs
I have to disagree with you on this one
A great example is Foxconn purchasing 1 million robots, to replace about 1 million workers, in a nation (China) with relatively low wages. Another is the robot Baxter, by rethink robotics, which will be used to manufacture more Baxters, removing the need to hire employees for manufacture. Google's self driving car has the potential to remove about 10 million primary driving and secondary insurance, mechanics, body shop workers, etc out of the US economy. The secondary effects are due to accident reduction.
The 3D house printer I am working on, by generation 3, will be able to set itself up and print a house unsupervised in under a day. The finishing, wiring, plumbing, glazing, tiling, painting, etc will take another day and will be fully automated. I foresee major job losses in the construction sector, about 3-4 million of them.
The quest for profits will drive this forward, with companies that refuse to automate or roboticize becoming financially unviable and failing. No laws, rules, or regulations can prevent this from occurring. Any laws passed, by specific nations, to slow job loss, will cause the companies burdened by them to fail, as other nations become more efficient and cost effective due to automation.
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Re: The press
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Re: To paraphrase....
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Re:
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Everything?
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Re:
On the post: Details Reveal Crypto Standard Controlled By NSA; And How Canada Helped
Weird thought.
Perhaps we should remove that law from the books.
On the post: Russia's Latest Idea: An Internet Whitelist For Copyright Materials
You have single handedly put the entire multi billion dollar entertainment industry in the obscurity column.
I am so glad you are not my friend ...
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