MarkovBlackbox’s Comments

• Oct 13th, 2011 @ 3:58pm

  Guess what?

  on Traders Convicted For Figuring Out Auto Trading Algorithm; How Is That Illegal?
  We have the math now.
  
  We won't be hacked.
  
  We keep moving.
  
  We have the intuitive s.
  
  But the world is so torn apart and unstable, we just profit but why? To be comfortable in a world falling apart? to help others when surely we would be targets when they follow the money from markets to good acts.
  
  The fiat currencies must be maintained at all costs... all instabilities will be delayed and so more people will die.
  
  If however, I profit from my knowledge, what does it matter. I have enough.
• Oct 13th, 2011 @ 3:52pm

  Re: More

  on Traders Convicted For Figuring Out Auto Trading Algorithm; How Is That Illegal?
  Exactly right, the probabilites of the human reaction given all the events previous and the constructed "events" in the future form a basis for "extrapolation" (crude term) for your reactions when the future event occurs. They know the average reaction of the masses in terms of correlations to all other pertinent asset classes, and your risk aversion (covar between asset classes). The math knows you if the correct underlying black box model from the intuitives is correct and usually one or more tests correct out of a reasonable sample ( and there are always new models to test bounded by compute time).
• Oct 13th, 2011 @ 3:25pm

  The market makers behind the market makers can extract any amt but don't

  on Traders Convicted For Figuring Out Auto Trading Algorithm; How Is That Illegal?
  They control the market 100%, this is what my sim models say. The reason they are not detected is that they balance gains and losses by moving market skimming profits sector to sector to gently guide it in the direction that stabilizes the current system (that is quite unstable, see exponential growth implied by an interest rate). Their motives are hidden in the averages atop a huge artificially created volatility. This volatility creates a mask and a cost of ownership that is not generally understood by those not schooled in risk management (which is of course a joke due to the manipulation of risk). This volatility is intelligent and highly correlated with public opinion. Their favorite trick is to flip correlations and violate economic principles for extended periods then correct to the mean quickly.
• Oct 13th, 2011 @ 3:09pm

  To break their models, you must know their math, motives, and be intuitive.

  on Traders Convicted For Figuring Out Auto Trading Algorithm; How Is That Illegal?
  If you do this, you are a target and you will be hacked. Even a bare metal hyper-visor may do you little good and your simulation data streams may be disrupted and constantly be re-verified. I happened to me, my whole OS was rewritten and my box was wide open. I caught it and went to hyper-visors but who knows if those are even secure. So, my algos went offline and into hardware (XMOS compute arrays) but I have to be careful that my datafeeds don't get modified. My autotrading went to the cloud. This article is exactly correct, you are a target or you work for them. They are all the investment banks and most of the governments that are all invested in fiat currencies, banking, exponential growth "economics", and the stability of markets as they exist.
• Oct 13th, 2011 @ 2:53pm

  For example, fiat currencies and gold - Markov intuitions in the blkbox

  on Traders Convicted For Figuring Out Auto Trading Algorithm; How Is That Illegal?
  You may construct a simple model. Goldbugs must die. That is, anyone that attempts to denominate their currency in "hard" assets ( gold, silver, oil, water, productive land etc) must have rick adjusted carrying costs so high that a low rate bond looks attractive. Ok, construct a linear programming model of inequalities with random variables as the coef's. Now feed it a stream of data and compute the distrubutions, variances, covars, and r^2 of each. Now run it forward and back in time. Can you profit or not? Ussually yes, but they are smart, it works very well then crashes and you lose it all and more. Why? they know the direction of price moves on the small time scales. They move profits from one fiat asset to hard asset and use volatility injection to increase the covar (cost of risk). Very clever.
• Oct 13th, 2011 @ 2:43pm

  Powerful forces manipulate markets for an essential reason

  on Traders Convicted For Figuring Out Auto Trading Algorithm; How Is That Illegal?
  There must be mechanisms to prevent wholescale extraction of profits from price/volume movements. Otherwise, the "transaction tax" would eat up returns. Market makers enforce that tax through the spread however the real makers of markets go further. A battle wages between powerful forces and the outsiders are foder, plain and simple. To prove it, you construct a Markov process (inner blackbox construction of the sinister manipulations between the strong forces). In doing so, you back-test price movements that include inputs from forcing events (constructed or not, war, weather, drought, defaults, perceived corruption). YOu run the simulations back and forward in time forming reverse time probabilities and forward time probabilities within the Mar-model. The difference in temporal probabilities allows you to tell if your model is correct. You may then trade it but beware, they have Markov models too. So, profit then back off. The powerful forces know you better than you do and it's all math and intuition to form the model in the black box. There are many intuitive s among us, the learning program then tunes it. Powerful forces attack you if you use their tools against them.