Bill Gates Still Believes Speech Will Replace Keyboards
from the the-product-of-the-future... dept
Bill Gates has been an incredibly successful businessman, but that doesn't mean he's particularly good at predicting the future of technology. Remember his claim that spam would be gone within 2 years... which he made in 2004? However, if there's one prognostication that Gates just can't let go of, it's his belief that speech recognition will replace keyboards as the preferred input device for computers. He's been saying it for years and years and years, without much to show for it. I had thought (hoped?) that he'd realized maybe he was wrong on this one, but apparently not. In a recent speech, he's insisting that speech recognition (and touch screens) will start to surpass keyboards as the input method of choice for many people. I was going to go back and put together a list of the times he had predicted that in the past, but it appears that Matthew Paul Thomas already did that a few years ago. Note that his earliest predictions (starting in 1997) were that speech would surpass keyboards within a decade. This quote is from October 1997:"In this 10-year time frame, I believe that we'll not only be using the keyboard and the mouse to interact, but during that time we will have perfected speech recognition and speech output well enough that those will become a standard part of the interface."If you go to Matthew's site, you'll find a lot more like that, continuing on through the years, with some different prediction time frames. This isn't to say that speech recognition hasn't gotten a lot better, and isn't used in many more ways today than it was in the past -- but it's not come anywhere close to replacing a keyboard for a variety of good reasons that have much less to do with technology than with how people work. Imagine just how noisy your typical office would be if you had to speak to your computer rather than type? Typing isn't used just because it's efficient, but because it lets people work without disturbing others, and without letting everyone else know every little thing that you're doing. Yes, speech recognition technology is getting much better and it's useful in some situations, but it's certainly not the perfect interface for an awful lot of what people do on a computer.
Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.
While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.
–The Techdirt Team
Filed Under: bill gates, keyboards, speech recognition
Reader Comments
Subscribe: RSS
View by: Time | Thread
still a long way to go
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: still a long way to go
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: still a long way to go
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
model m forever
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
I've seen worse
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
I mean, my comp can log me in by both speech and facial recognition, I would call that progress in the right direction.
Its funny to hear people always associate anything Bill Gates says to computers. Using speech and touch recognition is is already widely used in phones, kiosks, kitchen equipment, stores etc to name a few.
I-Phone and Microsoft surface is just the beginning....
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Bah
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Bah
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Bah
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Perhaps' once you get beyond...
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Perhaps' once you get beyond...
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
die of a heart attack, please.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
I don't know what it is about you Mike. But you sure attract retards, rejects, and wannabe trolls like no other blogger I know.
More to the point, this blog is a *lot* more professional than most blogs. Course many blogs tend to be livejournal clones.
Funny how they alwasy trot out the same argument too: "what have you ever done?"
Well you Anonymous Cowards, if you hadn't noticed Mike has created a website that has grown in popularity rather than dissapear into oblivion. Furthermore he's actually created a pretty nifty analyst business that real companies are actually using.
Meanwhile, you let some guy's blog get to you and seem to think that famous people can do no wrong. Or you are just really really bad at trolling and need to stop because you'll never ever get any better.
I suppose they are good for the laughs but still. You'd think they'd be embarassed with themselves at this point.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re:
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re:
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: you idiot
By the way, learn some English, please, before posing that mess. The you won't sound like such an idiot :)
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: you idiot
yea.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: Re: you idiot
huh?...wait for it...yea.
all im sayin is that mike didnt need to be such a dick in his post..he coulda said it a lot nicer
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: you idiot
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Bill Gates deserves more thanks and less criticize
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Bill Gates deserves more thanks and less criti
BILL HAS MADE MY LIFE A LIVING HELL!!!
I have to worry about viruses.
I have to worry about spyware.
I have to worry about why my laptop takes 10 minutes to start up now.
I have to worry about why I get little pop-up windows CONSTANTLY in the lower right hand corner. (God I hate this!)
I have to worry about why my mobile phone sucks at browsing the internet.
For years Microsoft has not rectified any frustrations I have regarding their products...and now they have an idiot running the company.
God! I am so stressed!!!!!!
I think I feel better now.
Thank you
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: Bill Gates deserves more thanks and less c
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: Bill Gates deserves more thanks and less c
I see a trend here:
Viruses and Spyware aren't written by MS (and of course aren't limited to Windows). Boot up time of 10 minutes? My XP laptop boots in less than 1 minute. Popups? Stop loading crap in startup.
Did you stop to think, maybe it's you?? (and your porn surfing habits).
Btw, MS has a monopoly of mobile phone web surfing? News to me.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: Re: Bill Gates deserves more thanks and le
Your mean..I don't like you.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
He-He-He
Bu-ha-ha...............................
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: He-He-He
this is supposed to be in the stealing "Dating Profiles" story...
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Keyboards and Abacuses
The idea that touchscreens and speech interfaces can't replace keyboards in large offices is just as short-sighted as believeing that the slide rule would have to stay around because it could do logarithms and you wouldn't have to worry about the battery in critical applications.
Maybe we can't see it right now, but we'll find a way to impelement it because speech-based word processing already is a more efficient use of time. You can do more faster, and you can free up your hands for other tasks than simple data entry, such as for information retrieval. That's the bottom line. The only problems we need to overcome are interface control --
and the aforementioned noise factor. But I really don't think it's an insurmountable problem. Besides, the diminishing importance of large workstation farms means that they will not be such an important organizational structure that they will forestall the introduction of the touch/voice interface.
It's coming, ready or not.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Did you read the quote before you wrote this? o.O
Also, in your article, you keep saying that Gates said "voice will replace keyboards" - but if you read that quote, Gates is saying that keyboards and voice would be used in tandem, not that voice would replace anything.
Many, many people use dictation software on a daily basis. I can say "Call Jane" to have my cell phone auto-dial a number. I use voice exclusively when talking to friends online (when once upon a time we used keyboards to send instant messages). If you call just about any company out there, you'll get a message "Please say the name of the department you'd like to speak with". Most public terminal computer systems are touch-screen based... The list goes on and on.
Again, I didn't click through, and so there may have been some larger claims made which didn't hold water, but what you had to say about the quote you quoted was completely off base.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Did you read the quote before you wrote this?
Have a good day!
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: Did you read the quote before you wrote th
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Did you read the quote before you wrote this?
That said, I haven't clicked through either, so I don't know what Gates actually did say.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
short and long term answer: nope, never
Handicap requirements for accessability and standards, people who are incapable of speaking, people who do not wish to speak, language barriers that are easier to convey messages by typing than speaking. None of those categories are ever going to go away and they are certainly large groups.
With that said, don't expect to ever see speech replacing a keyboard in any lifetime. Not mine, and not the next. I mean really if someone can market (and sell out) 1500$ keyboards that are so well engineered that they represent the next generation of keyboards do you really think that keyboards are going to go away? That is a permanent flourishing market, even if speech recognition (or even brain recognition) goes 100%.
Another failed Microsoft announcement full of lies, just like the "we're interoperating" claim (for what, the 12th time now?)
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Not likely
Peace out
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Gates had a talent for being in the right place at the right time, but when has he EVER done anything to advance UI?
If anybody is right it is going to be Apple. There was some recent speculation that they are going to merge multi-touch, pointing, and typing into a single device.
I for one will NEVER talk to my computer. And I don't want my computer to talk to me. I'm not wild about the idea of people listening to my interactions. Multi-touch is far more interesting to me.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
I have no doubt personally, my written communication skills are much better than my oral communications, maybe it's the extra time you have when typing to polish off the concept you are trying to convey and the way you want to deliver it that are more of a benefit to me, can't say. I recall when I was younger when computers were just starting to become 'personal' that one of the things I found most interesting was typing.
Although, voice recognition will have it's place, I don't really find it as desirable of an option as typing, generally.
Heck - even now where I work, the IT staff can always call each other, of course - but most choose to use Instant Messages. Perhaps for counter-intuitive reasons many people actually prefer to type. Or maybe it's really just the convenience offered with a text based communication that, in many ways - at times actually beats oral communications. Just because something is quicker, doesn't necessarily mean it's better or more efficient. If so - why is email even amongst relatives and friends a very popular communication method, when they could just call on the phone?
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Think
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Bill is right
The noise factor is a non-issue. Speech would be much quieter than an IBM Selectric and there are always ways to dampen or cancel it.
Sit back, relax, and have a chat with your techology.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
"Name please?"
"John Smith"
"John... backspace, backspace. Highlight jun. Delete. John."
And so on. Although I guess call centers would be more fun to listen to, especially the ones where every answerer has a strong accent.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech Recognition
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
A quick writeup..
So it wasn't long ago (Maybe fifteen months?) when Microsoft closed on the Voice Recognition software company, TellMe.
You have to hand it to them- the final product doesn't look too shabby. Especially considering they've already executed on a go-to-market strategy with software (ResponsePoint), hardware vendors and also engaged a VAR channel.
Having acquired a mature and robust speech engine may help drive more product dev work in this area and replace/complement the keyboards.
I remain more interested in touchscreen application and OneNote.
So someone said something about the Surface Computer, and it seems like a niche product, hopefully it can really improve productivity. So from a product/branding perspective, it probably would have been better for Surface to debut with AT&T or Verizon in addition to TMobile. Why? Well, these carriers seem to have a customer base thats business focused, whereas TMo appears to focus on the value-conscientious customer, so Surface would probably have better day-to-day visibility to businesses who could afford a kiosk or want to implement a kiosk strategy. It's the weekend and I'm too lazy to go research the numbers, but a few searches through some 10K filings of VZ or T may give insight to customer segments.
Anyways, enough rambling. Check out ResponsePoint-
http://www.microsoft.com/responsepoint/
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Steve Jones...
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Lets see a software development environment working with speech recognition :D
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Not to say
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Bill's Predictions of the future
To be fair I admit I use speech recognition (SR) for dictating memos and articles and it works quite well. But I could never use SR for the complex tasks I do like, as someone else here has given as an example, software development.
I design computer embedded medical equipment. I would never allow an SR system interface in life supporting machines.
SR will only work when AI has developed to the point where the computer has rudimentary intelligence, a sort of idiot savant expertize on the subject being controlled by the software. This way an interpretation can be made based on the context. The computer will not interpret "center the asterisk" as "render the asparagus" in a publishing application.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Have you actually tried speech recognition?
I recently bought a popular voice recognition product and, after having stuck with it through the training phase, use it daily for everything from e-mail to writing blog entries. For me, dictating text using this software is now faster and more accurate than typing.
Like millions of people, I work in an office with a door and don't disturb anyone when dictating.
Frankly, I can't believe we're still typing as much as we are when audio text alternatives exist that cost less than $200. I also can't believe voice recognition isn't built into hand-held devices such as PDAs.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Bill is right
It's really not that far off. I remember 5 years ago how bad dictation software was and how its fail rate was. There definately is a vast improvement in the dictation software.
I'm not going to say a timeframe, but I do believe that it's only a matter of time before speech will be the preferred interface control for personal computers in a private office or at home.
There will always be manual inputs, and situtions where speech input is not recommended. Doesn't mean that speech won't become a valuable part of computers in the future.
Bottom line is, Bill may be wrong on timelines, but his goals of integrating speech, and getting rid of spam, are good ones and practical ones. They just take a lot of time to figure out.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:Have you actually tried speech recognition?
And see if the cubicle farm is more productive because you have loud talkers screaming at their computers and the computer in the next cubicle is taking the commands from the loud talker and screwing over the person in the cubicle.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re:Have you actually tried speech recognition?
This may come a surprise but not everyone works in a cubicle. Many people work at home or areas out of earshot from other workers.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Straight talking
3. Talking code? Maybe I could get used to it...
2. Ever tried talking non-stop for an hour, such as at a public speaking engagement? Vocal cords only last so long. 8-10 hours a day, every day? Some people could train to keep up that pace. Not me.
1. I'm already crammed into a grid of cubes. Loud phone calls echo throughout the room. A room full of people talking to their computers, non-stop? Shut Up!
The next big breakthrough will be neural implants that allow us to "type" without moving our fingers. Or not. I don't have $50b to get people to listen.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
I also read The Age of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil, and it was the same thing. Futurism is always just a lot of boring masturbation, no matter who's writing it. Even when you can see echoes of what they meant years or decades later, it's very far off from the description. This kind of thinking is important, I'm not saying otherwise...but speaking as a non-developer, the signal-to-noise ratio is extremely high.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Get your shit straight
Like he stated in his recent speech, he believes the future is NUA (Natural User Interface).
His vision (although I find this a little crazy myself) is that every surface in your office, and possibly home, will be a computer screen.
So if you have to make a note, you take out your special stylus and write it on your coffee table.
After you write the note on the table you can go to your cell phone/PDA and read that note, lets say you write "Pick up Joe from airport March 13th @ 3pm" on the table. Your phones calender now has a new reminder in it, even if its buried in your work bag.
Thats pretty handy for taking a phone message even with no paper or pen around huh?
Another vision of his is: You're writing on your white board and one of your clients sends you a video message. Well just click the new message icon flashing at the top of your white board and watch it right there, no time lost.
So to sum things up, he believes in Natural User Interface to be the future, which includes speech.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Get your shit straight
NUI is cool tech, but if it doesn't add productivity, it's going to be a hard sell. So work backwards, the last think you want to do is shock your customers to another platform because it's unfarmilliar. As a starting point, ask how do you economically get a tablet and OneNote into these peoples hands? Don Tapscott says "Personal Use is the Precondition to Any Understanding." If people see OneNote being used in the office, it will spawn the upgrades. Then once they are comfortable with a touchscreen and you've reached critical mass, consider moving in for bigger fish like NUI.
But it's a drastic change for an "old-timer".
I'm really just throwing this out there- but whats the % of Fortune 100 companies who upgraded to Office 2007? Maybe there's an opportunity.
Here's a thought- If it won't break Office 2003, make available, to the Public, Word08 upgrade for six months or say, 500k copies at a jaw-dropping price with no phone support. (Whatever it is, it must be below the psycological $49.99) Also silently include OneNote.
Once comfortable, whatever they write will look great with the stylesets, and their work product would become a trojan horse for a O2008 site license.
Next, (and here's where the viral thing comes into play) The techies will wonder what this OneNote thing is. To drive tablet adoption, include a $50 instant rebate (Key Point- You got to work out the logistics to make it an instant rebate, and the Rebate Value has to be above the $49.99 psycological pricepoint.) for any touchscreen laptop. I imagine many techies will find themselves eyeballing a new Vista laptop for personal use that has a touchscreen within a few weeks. Then they essentially become your salesperson for a widescale hardware upgrade with their tablet at work.
Anyways, just some thoughts. That's how I'd do it anyway.
Then onto developing the pervasive data strategy, etc etc etc.
Everybody wins.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
what's next
gui
mouse
usb
Ipod
multitouch
what's next
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
why
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Other Uses
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
It takes time...
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
mmm
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech recoginition
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Minority Report
Visual processing and certain Actions are much faster then speach.
Speach takes up more brain activity then just about any other type of brain function, and is therefore slower.
Language can also be interpreted in multiple ways
The future will be in presenting us with MORE densely layered VISUAL information and allowing us to PHYSICALLY manipulate it.
I know this has all been said before....
Think of Tom Cruise in the movie, "The Minority Report"
Projectors, Layering images, 3D imaging, Holography, etc. coupled with Gesture technology is the true future
atleast from a speed of cognition perspective.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
I disagree
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Old man has it right- no keyboard or mouse here!
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Old man has it right- no keyboard or mouse here!
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Old Man..Sorry.. what happened to paragraphing.. I
Rewritten:
Mr. Gates opens a door rather than letting you look in the window by making this announcement- and the point is missed- too easy to understand>??????
Keyboard AND mouse are not any longer necessary (and the speech activation I just leapfrogged until the tech catches up). A tool that has a form factor of a bic ballpoint pen is better- and more natural.
Those with big bucks have inventory to dump and cheesy intermediate versions to hock on you already in the pipeline.
Earlier example of current tech being modified rather than the great tech leap occuring to leach out value and profit away from the purchaser:
"Since CCD, a 4 gig hard disk drive, and DV (digital video in any form, we all could have been using video cameras that do not tax our time (and wear out a hundred times faster) by using tape" I look back and 4 of the last 6 video cameras (one at a time) could have just been a hard disc, CCD, and the DV format"
I liken this article's creator (WITH RESPECT) to the boy who cried "Sheep"- when Mr Gates cried "Wolf" at seeing the wolf take away a baby- (our cash).
Mr Gates is who he is- in a Attitude worthy of attention.
He is calling it from the top of the heap in some tangible ways.- and a real view we can only dream upon. Pay attention.
Yes, Man is going to be doing a lot of waving of hands in air for next X years- but voice will be back in under ten by far. (Hands will get tired, and laziness being the mother of invention it will happen pronto) (it is already here in most ways) (dragon speak naturally speaking program)
Interestingly, Mr Gates is the wolf also. Might want to pay attention to him.
Again, the Wii-mote and Johnny Lee (CMU) system works great-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s5EvhHy7eQ
It uses, (I use) what looks like a bic ball point pen for "mouse", and I now run my computer by looking DOWN at my desk-with the XP desktop superimposed upon it.
Nothing like a quantum leap forward by leaping backwards reciprocally.
A great idea is like fire- it takes off- some reader out there may realize the immensity of this- and get the word out.
"A return to Pen and Paper" (virtual paper)
Yes, you need a modest low intensity projector- about 400 dollars- but on your existing computer screen it is free.
Typing? Just run the handicapped feature in XP accessibility features and voila! no keyboard on my desktop except a virtual "touch-sensitive" one
In other words the keyboard no longer exists, except as light on the desktop.
Geez 42 dollars is a lot of money to replace a 60 dollar Natural Keyboard and a 50 dollar trackball. NOT
Stop blaming and criticising others when you could fix the problem(s) yourself!
I believe in all of you- get with it.
Best to all.
Rock On.
Mike
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Hardwareless GUI- 42 dollars and bic pen- no compu
As "milady" suggests, I should stop telling you about, and tell you what it is NOT:
No physical Keyboard, Mouse, or Monitor.
Just a Bic Ballpoint pen is all the user sees.
Imagine a empty room with a wood desk and chair, and this bic pen- that is all that is INSIDE the room to run XP.
Got it?
Good!
Mike (and li'l Miss)
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Hardwareless GUI- 42 dollars and bic pen- no c
Imagine a empty room with a wood desk and chair, and this bic pen- that is all that is INSIDE the room to run XP.
So something like the Nokia Digital Pen SU-27W?
I think that first had it's debut in 2004. Again it experienced Also, many reviews on it didn't come until several years later.
Nokia has long had a facinating legacy of creating a good robust UI, employing features that seem to be well ahead of others. I've had GPS directions (by way of TomTom) on my nokia phones since my Nokia 6600 which came out it 2003.
So it's not surprising when I saw the SU-27W that something was up. I acquired a SU-27U for $50 almost a year ago.
It's an interesting device, but has limitations- for one, it requires specially indexed paper.
But the ability to acquire it for such a low price tells me two things:
1) High R&D costs built into the device caused a non-commitity device. Which led to
2) Adoption challenges partially due to it's high price.
3) The surplus was sold at intrensic value, not at cost.
Again, when discussing new Human Interaction Devices, it takes time and commoditization for it to reach critical mass, and needs a phase-in strategy. Somewhat related: consider acoption rates of with moving to SOA/BPM platforms.
Where is Masnick anyway?
/thread
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: Hardwareless GUI- 42 dollars and bic pen-
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
predictions
if you try to predict the future you can't be so one-dimensional.
I believe that yes, speech or thought or something else more natural to human interactions will replace or supplement the keyboard. And it already happens, as others here point out.
The simplistic arguments against it remind me of stories they told about when the car or the computer or [name what] was first introduced. Technology changes society and vice versa.
Greetings, A.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
True prediction
Who said anything about replacing the keyboard. and from what i read in this qoute, we are already there.
Thanks Bill, What's next?
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
True prediction
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Carpel Tunnel Syndrome
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Again, imagine any thoughts in the form of codon
Keep your imagination going...
or Visit my website for the idea called "Codonology":
www.Codonology.com
Have a good future!
Hua Fang, MD
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Did you say.........
www.orb24.com
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Will SR replace keyboards? I'm sure that at some point it will. In ten years? I don't think so. It's still very buggy. Keyboards have a lot of benefits; I can type without advertising to anyone within earshot what I'm doing, I can multitask (watching TV and typing right now) without disturbing others, keyboards are MUCH more accurate (if you're an accurate typist), and some of us can type faster than we can dictate. I see SR in the next ten years as more of a quality add-on to a keyboard than a realistic replacement.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
I get no Spam with my Gmail Account
Hey spam may not be gone on MSN, but since I've opened up my Gmail account I haven't received any spam in my inbox. Its all neatly piled underneath Spam where it belongs. So in away I guess Bill was right. You just have to have your email with the right people. GOOGLE ROCKS AND SHOULD RULE THE COMPUTER INDUSTRY!!
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Parsing it is the trick
We want computers to understand speech, but the grail is understanding natural speech, not carefully worded commands. We are getting pretty good at recognition. Understanding natural speech is a different problem and is the real trick. That's the thing to get working on now.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
News Flash: Bread now sliced too!
Welp that about summarizes this entire story.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
LumenVOX for asterisk
http://freepbx.org/news/2008-01-29/microsoft-response-point-pbx-asterisk-and-beyond
Says they have a $50 developer edition thru the end of Feburary. has anyone tried it?
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
LumenVox Speech Starter Kit
http://store.digium.com/productview.php?product_code=8ASTLUMSTART
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech Recognition V Typing
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
One fact I can reliably state is this:
I will freakin' kill myself if everyone in my office started talking to their computer. I can't get them to shut up without talking to their computer (and some of them do so anyway). Pretty please, Mr. Gates, help me keep my sanity by not giving every idiot in the world an audible voice.
Thanks,
~Brian, whose keyboard will not be replaced by voice recognition software for too many reasons to state.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Not that far fetched.
I've used a few speech recognition programs. Although not very smart the recognition bit was actually quite good. On a system a friend had set up! So perhaps it all comes down to how clearly one speaks.
I don't think we'll have voice take over everything. But standard routine commands I have no doubt speech will take over.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Everything must go
If we consider the evolution of man, the evoluion of man's machines, and the evolution of man's relationship with the machines, I think their rate of evolution would increase in the same order. And if that carries on forever then of course keyboards will disappear, then screens will disappear, then speech input will disappear. Eventually, the machines themselves will disappear from our perception, and our thoughts, desires, wishes and wildest dreams will control our surroundings.
On the paths of these lines of evolution, there will be thousands of intermediate stages, and we're on one where there happens to be less clubs and more keyboards. Sure, there'll be people who hang on to past technologies for resons other than technological advancement, 4-track musicians, vynl record collectors, screen printers, baseball players, but chores will disappear. Chores now handled by the machines - washing dishes, feeding the fire, finding food mental calculations - they're almost all gone.
It's inevitable keyboards will disappear, I'd be very surprised if a suitable substitute isn't found within the next few decades.
And I wish they'd hurry up, this took me bloody ages.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech Recognition
Video gamers will be able to attest to that all the time.
Playing a RTS or FPS with speech only would be impossible.
You would lose every time.
Maybe if it was a slow turn based system or puzzle game maybe. But definitely no FPS or RTS at the least (and a good amount of RPGs too).
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
CPR
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech replacing keyboards
That is ridiculous!! What about those hearing impaired people who can't hear or cannot speak cannot use speech. Or those that cannot speak well cannot use this sort of thing.
Think about it.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
From the feelings I've seem on it so far - it seems most people don't really care for it. And above everything else, that will be the main determining factor.
Personally, I remember trying 'voice recognition' software like 10 years ago. It wasn't just the pain of configuration that made it undesirable, but the fact that it did depend on speech. It's been around for a while already, really.
I really don't want to get up early on the weekends, go posting on blogs, forums, or whatever and have to talk. Nor do I really feel up to talking physically at work right now. Between the phone and everything else in the 'real world', mostly I just don't feel up to physically talking more. Especially to a computer.
I'll keep the keyboard and mouse as long as I can... If it comes to me shelling out more $$$ for 'voice recognition' they can forget it! lol
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech recognition may work great for some people, especially those who are handicapped or do dictation all day long. However, a computer tech will ALWAYS need a keyboard. Just imagine trying to write computer code or input complicated commandline sequences using speech. It ain't gonna happen, period.
The key to speech recognition is its ability to understand the English language (or whatever other spoken language you use). Computer code and commandline environments are NOT comprised of basic English. They are not languages that can be easily spoken. Actually, this is somewhat ironic, because it's for this very reason that the people writing the speech recognition software will never be able to use said software to do their jobs.
So yeah, Bill, take your predictions and go sit in a dark corner somewhere, quietly please. For the record, I haven't really taken much stock in your predictions since you said nobody would ever need more than 640K of RAM.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
I Remember
While it was fun, it wasn't always practical. I lost privacy when using it, as anyone who could hear me knew what I was doing. Most people, including me change their tones when their mood changes and that would be annoying.
And actually, there were many things where it really was just faster with the mouse or keyboard.
The only place I see voice recognition coming in is security and document writing. Its not really too practical past all that.
It wouldn't be much help with graphic artists, it wouldn't be worth anything to gamers, etc..
It has a future in security, document writing and stuff that isn't a part of the PC (cell-phones, PDAs, etc..)
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Kill me now
Speech recognition technology does have practical applications in many situations but it is still very limited. For example, my credit card company uses speech recognition to supplement its voice menu navigation. It's handy but it is a far cry from a viable substitute for simply pressing a number key. Sign me up when I can call in then simply say, "What's my current balance and when is my next payment due?"
For my money speech recognition makes sense when you don't have access to a keyboard/mouse/keypad, but it doesn't replace these entry mechanisms. The real innovation will be when we can control input through a combination of thought, hand motion and eye movement. Now that would be nifty.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Microsoft DOES NOT KNOW HOW to deliver what we hav
Microsoft DOES NOT KNOW HOW to deliver what we have been expecting for 60 years, first because they do not trust what they can not control, and mostly because they do not want to work with inventors who are gifted with the solution - and in my case, where I made sure I do not go on the wrong road for the solution, they may be concerned with the fact that I come from outside the industry.
It is good, that Bill Gates does like to see this come true, and I know it is The Salvation to Microsoft, if they work with me on the Universally Intelligent Internet Project of the EchoLogical Machines generation of Computers and Robots - but they need to accept that there are special none technological problems which must be addressed so we can have these computers which can think and sing as well as talk and listen in any natural language and not with the limitations of AI and Artificial voice to speech and speech to text and text to speech, and/or Automatic Translations and/or real and not only limited Virtual and Persona Machines.
So I have posted some information if you search for the terms I use, or look at a developers' website where you can see a model but not the trade secrets I own, as this is bigger then IBM+INTEL+APPLE+Microsoft and so on, all put together...
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Microsoft DOES NOT KNOW HOW to deliver what we
I have been using Microsoft for years, and like to be able to have a head set instead of using my keysboard.
I can not understandv why such a big and able company has not yet done so, if its rich owner does like to see this as I do?
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech recognition software rules!
It is not necessary anymore to subject your body parts to potentially hazardous repetitive movement by continually typing. There is a much better and faster way to communicate to a computer. I originally obtained the software because I hurt my elbow and I was unable to type. By the way Anonymous Coward, it is not appreciated when you call us speech recognition users handicapped. We're actually the smarter ones! I would say that you are the one with the handicapped brain because you are so clueless and say things which are just simply not true. Just for your information, if you do have to make that sort of degrading comment then special-needs is a much better term. In fact I am certain that I can put written text into a computer faster than the fastest typist in the world and I am ready for the challenge. Bring them on! (This text just took me about 20 seconds to dictate) I feel really sorry for all you folks stuck banging away at your keyboards day after day, wasting your time and increasing the likelihood of carpal tunnel or other life changing physically painful problems in the future.
Speech recognition software is like any other software, you have to learn how to use it correctly. It gets better with time as it continually learns to recognize your speech patterns. If you have words that it does not recognize you can train it easily to recognize those words.
I think that most of the negative comments about speech recognition are written by people who have never used it and so they are meaningless. It does help to be able to speak clearly and quickly which some people cannot do. I am not sure if the software would work for somebody who stutters, slurs or mumbles (like Mayor Menino of Boston) when they speak. It is also helpful to have studied a foreign language so that you know how to take care in your pronunciation and to be sure that your pronunciation is very reproducible.
The other thing that is really driving me crazy is that everyone is saying well "I'm going to have to give up my keyboard". That is simply not the case. You can still type and use your mouse but you would find that you never do this once you learn to use speech recognition. However if for some reason you get stuck on a particular word or you get tired of talking you can still type.
Let's hear from other successful speech recognition users instead of this nonsense from people who really know nothing about it.
Thank you for reading my long dictation/composition. I could go on and on and on and on because it is just so simple to put words into your computer when you say them. Effortless in fact. I simply lean back in my chair comfortably and talk to my computer and it does what I tell it to do each and every time.
Bill Gates you are so right and I believe in you and your predictions!
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Speech recognition software rules!
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Meanwhile, speaking for eight hours won't hurt your throat or cause any othr kind of problems. And of course when someone can't speak, becaus of a cold or other problem, I'm sure not having a keyboard will look even more ridiculous.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech Recognition
I also have a muscle problem and lost my earning potential since my experience and education relies on computers. I am 47 and have been trying to get another career going, one that doesn't use computers much and I have not had any success.
Speech recognition was giving me some hope but after reading this article I am loosing hope that I will never be able to go back to office work again.
That means a very limited life due to reduced income.
Donna
New Jersey
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech replacing keyboarding
I teach keyboarding (college) also, and we have lots of students. It's just that they don't know about voice and handwriting and that they don't have tablet computers.
Once tablet computers and phones that use handwriting as well as speech technology are marketed correctly, the use of keyboarding will disappear in a few years.
One of my students showed me her cell phone that has handwriting on it. She just wrote the text message on the screen and it was magically turned to typing as she wrote each word. No mistakes.
A cell phone sales person showed me her cell phone (a model not sold by the company she was working for) that had speech recognition. She told it to "Text Robert." It opened a text message screen. Then she said "Where are you?" It wrote the message in a second. No thumbs!
I was impressed. I am know looking for a cell phone that has handwriting (OneNote particularly) and speech. Does anyone know of one?
Thanks.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Speech recognition
2. Some high percentage of employee output, is chit chat, gossip, tweets, chats, etc. Do they want people in the office to hear that? I for example, wouldn't want my colleague, sat next to me, to hear what I am typing right now on this forum.
3. People have all sorts of noise interference coming from their machines, like music, and sound effects. Typing is immune to any effects of this noise. Voice isn't.
4. With a mouse and keyboard, you can write documents and quickly/efficiently revise/edit them.
5. I bought my first laptop 15 years ago, and got a word recognition package. Seemed like a great idea, but I quickly realised that it was useless. I have not since installed such a package, nor had the desire to.
7. 20 years ago, I studied the paperless office. Hands up anyone, 20 years on, who hasn't got biros, scraps of paper, post.it notes, business cards, , pads, calanders, and wads of paper on their desks? It's hard to simplify a process that is already pure simplicity.
The question is. If typing works, why try to simplify it with soemthing that is intrinsically more complicated, and even less desireable??
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
pray
just ask me. any time. 501-525-1599 call after 12:00pm
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Inventing as we were created and blessed
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
shut the fuck up
Peace out,
Billy G x
[ link to this | view in chronology ]