Does The Math On 1,000 True Fans Add Up?
from the john-scalzi-doesn't-think-so dept
Last week, when I wrote about Kevin Kelly's concept of content creators building up 1,000 True Fans, I was pretty careful to focus mainly on the concept of "True Fans" rather than the 1,000 number. Author John Scalzi (who we were also just talking about for his results in giving away ebooks) has taken Kelly to task, suggesting that when you do the math, the numbers don't add up. It's a good read, though I don't think it actually takes anything away from the entire concept of focusing on your "True Fans." Also, perhaps I misread Kelly's piece, but I don't think he meant to say that building up 1,000 True Fans is easy (the main point that Scalzi rebuts). Kelly also puts in plenty of caveats at the end of his piece, noting that you have to adjust the concept depending on the situation, and it certainly doesn't apply to everyone. In the end, I think both pieces make sense - and perhaps Kelly was a bit over eager in setting the number at 1,000. However, the key point that Kelly makes stands: if you connect with fans in a real and meaningful way, it may take time, but you can start to put together business models that will allow you to support yourself, without having to go the traditional route where only the top of the top can actually make a living. That's still quite different than how the world was just a short while ago.
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Filed Under: 1000 true fans, john scalzi, kevin kelly
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When you put it this way, it reminds me of the bad assumption people make, what Guy Kawasaki calls Chines Math: If you can capture just 1% of the Chines market, you have made it becuase China is so huge!
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On the subject
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88145070
Seems to me the traditional labels are like bitter old people who know they are dying but are determined to make everyone around them as miserable as possible while they go.
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The Long Tail
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I almost totally disagree with Scalzi's post not because he is wrong, but because he is too centric to genre fandom and he ignores the fact that KK is talking averages. If I buy 20 radiohead songs and attend two concerts in a year I probably spend $300. You only need 330 of me to have your 1000 fans. But consider this: I'm not going to those concerts alone and my friends are going to be 'forced' to listen to some my musical preferences...and some will convert.
This is not new. I was in a band, pre-Internet, and we built a loyal fan following, in our town, of over 500 fans who bought music, attended shows and brought friends. This was accomplished with posters, PR and word of mouth. If you can't find 1000 true fans with the tools we have today you might want to question your product.
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Re:
Martin, excellent point. That's a really good way of thinking about it.
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It could work...
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The Benefactor System?
Now what if we update the system?
We can have a system in which large amount of people continuously donate X amount of money every month to an artist and most of it will go to you(Let say 95% of donation goes to you, and the rest to middlemen handling the transaction as an example). With this system, it is automatic. You subscribe and forget it. All you need to do is continuously get a paycheck so you can pay a small portion to an artist/programmer/whoever.
What these artists will do is to continuously produce arts, or programmers producing games, etc.
With a massive audience, the need to pay to support an artist. For example, if you want 3,000 each month($36,000 each year), you would need something like 4,000 people donating 1 dollars every month(taking into account that they need to pay the middleman)
In fact, this is a business model used by a programmer named Jason Rohrer. He may not makes livable income by average standard but he show the potential of this model. You can see his donation page here.
The best part about this system is that the over-head is low and automatic and get better as the scale of operation grows. As the number of fans grow and subscribe, the amount needed to sustain an artist/programmer/writer per fan lowered. Eventually it may be possible to support an artist with a mere $12 per year, leaving you more money to support other artists.
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I've got three fans, or two, depending on my girlfriend's mood.
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Long-standing example
Has anyone mentioned the Grateful Dead? A group which has never had a hit single, or much radio airplay, or much of what is conventionally described as "commercial success". They're happy for their fans to record their concerts and pass the recordings around. And yet they've managed to make a comfortable living from their music for over four decades.
If that doesn't count as a sustainable business model, I don't know what does.
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Sellaband is proof this works
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Actually, it's 2000 fans
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