Can The Lottery Make People Save More?
from the tax-on-the-poor dept
The lottery has often been described as a "tax on those who don't understand probability." However, it seems some enterprising folks are trying to use that basic fact to help people who have trouble saving money (who often overlap with the folks who don't understand probability) to save more. Apparently some credit unions in Michigan are experimenting with a lottery feature as a part of a savings account:Psychologists have long known that people tend to overestimate the odds of rare events. Applying that behavioral insight, finance professor Peter Tufano of Harvard Business School has devised a clever program called "Save to Win." Launched earlier this year for members of eight credit unions in Michigan, it is a cross between a certificate of deposit and a raffle ticket. Members who put $25 or more into a Save to Win one-year CD are entered into a monthly "savings raffle" for prizes up to $400, plus one annual drawing for a $100,000 jackpot.Apparently, this program has attracted $3.1 million in new deposits, many (the article claims) from people who have never been able to save much money. In many ways it is like buying a lottery ticket, except that you don't lose the money paid for the ticket. The credit unions make this work by paying out a slightly lower interest rate on the CD in question, but the net effect works out to benefit everyone. Many who put their money into such an account would never have put their money into a higher rate CD in the first place. In some ways, it's a neat example of efficient price discrimination that expands an overall market.
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Filed Under: credit unions, lottery, michigan, probability, savings
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so in other words
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This is genius
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Re: This is genius
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Re: This is genius
Or do you mean the Wall-Street bonu$, ob$cene gob$ of ca$h?
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Great spin on the story
Anyway, as mentioned by Richard, premium bonds have existed in Europe for many years, so it's hardly up-to-standards-Harvard material from the finance professor to come up with this plan. In Denmark, the state has stopped issuing premium bonds, but the private banks have taken over by offering a "Millionærkonto" (millionaires account), on which you get a lottery ticket for each 100 DKK, and a lowered interest rate on your savings.
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Re: Great spin on the story
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Re: Great spin on the story
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Re: Great spin on the story
It's interesting to note how you're putting a negative spin on it. Mike pointed out "many (the article claims) from people who have never been able to save much money". Therefore it is helping them by having them put money in a bank. If the bank gets more for it, the banks will continue doing it. It helps everyone involved. There isn't anything stopping the people reinvesting in normal plans later.
Bottom line: even savings with zero interest are a better investment than giving your money away to the state lottery.
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Re: Re: Great spin on the story
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Legality of 100k Raffle
To me, looks more like a lottery, $25 per ticket. Guessing there is a rule on how many entries. Basically if you're investing multiples of $25, should just put into multiple save-to-win CDs.
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Re: Legality of 100k Raffle
You're forgetting who owns the gov't.
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Far as I can tell, the raffles give out (12 x $4,000) + (1 x $100,000) = $148,000. It would take roughly 4.5% "skimmed" (yearly, compounded monthly) from $3.1 million by these credit unions in order to fund the raffles.
The link provided in the article states:
This unusual CD is federally guaranteed by the National Credit Union Administration and pays between 1% and 1.5% annual interest.
That would mean the typical savings account is between 5.5% to 6% (if the credit unions have to skim 4.5% to enable this program). This seems rather high...
At $3.1 million, there are at most 124,000 unique participants. This raffle system increases average yearly wealth of those people by ($148,000 + $3.1M @ 1.5%) / 124,000 = $25.37 per person.
A typical savings account would increase the average yearly wealth of those people by ($3.1M @ 5.5%) / 124,000 = $26.41 per person. A total difference of $128,984.
I wasn't sure going into this what the difference would be, it still favors people just saving the ol' fashioned way, but the difference doesn't seem to be too excessive to discount the raffle approach. And, at least this way, it is giving people [false] incentive to save money which they normally would have just spent and would not have gone towards increasing average yearly wealth anyways. And, of course, the one person that wins the $100,000 will swear by this method.
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Again, it doesn't appear to be the largest difference and, if the alternative for this money is being spent (as opposed to being saved normally), this seems like an overall positive (As long as people don't withdraw too much and the credit unions are earning enough interest to pay off their raffles. Unless, they are earning money some other way for this?)
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Quite Common In Some Regions
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Certainly a good way to promote saving without explicitly promoting saving.
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Premium Bonds
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