If It's May It's Time For The Press To Parrot Bogus Stats Announcement From The BSA

from the bsa-from-the-bsa dept

Wed, May 12th 2010 8:56am — Mike Masnick

Like the swallows returning to Capistrano, every May is marked by the release of intentionally misleading and bogus stats from the Business Software Alliance (or, more accurately, the Bogus Stats Alliance) concerning software "piracy." As with every other year, the stats are compiled by IDC, despite the fact that even IDC has admitted in the past that the BSA is purposely misrepresenting their findings. You would think, at some point, that IDC would stop providing numbers that are blatantly misrepresented... but I guess if the money's green, IDC will give you the numbers you want.

We've been covering these bogus stat reports for many years, providing a detailed look at how misleading the stats are, and pointing out how many in the press simply parrot the numbers without question. Two years ago, a VP at the BSA (who's now working at the Justice Department, of course) was kind enough to call me to try to explain the BSA's numbers (along with a PR person and a representative from IDC). When I challenged them on the whole "one copy equals one sale thing" they insisted that their numbers showed such a claim was accurate.

Thankfully, in the past few years, more and more in the press have started to sound skeptical of the BSA's numbers -- but it's still a minority. Last year, the BSA did a neat trick in getting some publications to run stories about the numbers, while then saying don't pay attention to the numbers as a way of fending off anyone who criticizes how incredibly misleading the numbers are.

This year, you would think the press would be extra skeptical, given that just a few weeks ago, the GAO report pointed out that these stats are totally baseless (and yes, the BSA was one of the reports they criticized). But, looking through the press coverage, most seem to be just reporting the ridiculous claims such as "$50 billion" in "losses" due to file sharing. Lots of the reports focus on "local" findings -- with local publications just covering the claims in that local country (for example, coverage in Malaysia, China, the Persian Gulf, the UK, Korea, India, Canada, etc.). Of course, in the past, even those numbers have been called into question. Last year, after people took a more detailed look at how "piracy" stats were counted in Canada, it came out that the findings were based on pure guesses. No one in Canada was surveyed. They just made up the data.

So, really, you would think that the mainstream press would at least put up some semblance of skepticism in seeing these same bogus numbers released yet again, with no serious changes to the methodology. But, for the most part the reports just repeat the BSA's talking points. Looking through the press reports, it's tough to find coverage that expresses any skepticism at all. They just repeat the numbers -- the same numbers the US government just said were bunk -- as if they were pure fact. Just a sampling: the AFP, the BBC, ComputerWeekly, Computerworld, the UK Press Association, Network World, eWeek and many, many others.

Business Week gets credit for being one of the very, very few sources that at least mentions the GAO's findings, though it does so in one sentence at the very bottom of the article. The National Journal also mentions the GAO report -- though neither seemed to ask (or get any responses from the BSA) to this rather crucial point. ITWire, at the very least, points out that the study is basically made up, noting that:

"estimates of piracy rates are based mostly on inferences and the 'gut feeling' of the BSA's research organisation IDC;

But that's about all I could find. For the most part, the press -- the one's we're told are supposed to be asking all the "tough" questions, simply reposted the BSA's press release as fact. You would think that, given that this report has come out every year for the past seven years -- and the methodology has been debunked widely time and time again -- this year by the US government -- and that the report itself admits that many of the numbers are based on hunches and guesses, that the press would stop reporting them as fact. Wishful thinking, I guess.

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Filed Under: bsa, piracy, software, stats
Companies: bsa

35 Comments

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Phillip Vector (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 9:07am

Penn and Teller said it best..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTUtAfzIbPU

Oh.. and first.. Unless I get ninjaed. :)
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CN, 12 May 2010 @ 9:07am

And people wonder why newspapers are dying...
And people wonder why newspapers are dying...
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ChurchHatesTucker (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 9:12am

Re: And people wonder why newspapers are dying...
What? Are counting on bloggers to accurately transcribe press releases?
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:Lobo Santo (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 9:41am

Re: Penn and Teller said it best..
(Pssst! You're not supposed to do the 'first' thing here anymore.)
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Beefcake (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 10:02am

TLA credibility...
...goes a long way with journalists, apparently. All Techdirt has to do is rebrand as TDT and maybe all those journalists will start parroting you instead.
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Dark Helmet (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 10:37am

Re: Re: Penn and Teller said it best..
Who came up with that rule?
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jilocasin (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 10:37am

CNet: Piracy costs software industry $51 billion in '09
CNet's at it as well.

Here's the email I sent to the article's author. It only took a little legwork to get his email address. CNet doesn't let you comment without having an account, and while they will let you 'email' (their little javascript applet) someone just fine, they won't let you send it unless you log in. Of course they don't tell you that until you fill in the captcha to send it.

--------------
Dear Lance,

Why are you reporting the IDC / BSA numbers as if they were facts? The GAO has reported that the numbers from previous IDC/BSA reports and the assumptions they are based upon are baseless. The IDC has previously accused the BSA of 'misrepresenting' their findings and a similar report referenced in Canada was blasted for being basically made up.

Nowhere in your article do you discuss the assumptions or methodology of this report. If it is like their previous piracy reports, it starts with the assumption that every copy that wasn't purchased was a lost sale and goes downhill from there.

You are doing your readers a severe disservice in simply parroting the IDC/BSA numbers.

Please do some research before you simply re-post what is basically BSA's propaganda. A correction or followup to your recent referenced article would be helpful.

Here's a good place to start in finding critics of that annual report.

http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100511/1516059386.shtml
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ChurchHatesTucker (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 10:50am

Re: Re: Re: Penn and Teller said it best..
I took a poll. Turns out it's EVERYBODY ELSE ON THE INTERNET.
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Overcast (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 10:57am

They lost 780 Billion to the Tenth number of sales this year.
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Brian (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 10:59am

Maybe its me
I could just be reading this wrong:
"The rate of global software piracy in 2009 was 43%, meaning that for every $100 worth of legitimate software sold in 2009, an additional $75 worth of unlicensed software also made its way into the market,"

But last I checked 43% of 100, be it dollars/lawyers/etc, was still 43
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 11:03am

Say what you will, but as yet I have not heard a convincing argument that the software companies should be lumped in together with entertainment companies (movies, music, etc.) when it comes to piracy of their wares.

Software companies of the type such as MS, Adobe, Roxio, JASC, Xara are quite easily impacted by those who cop freebies of their wares when perfectly acceptable freeware substitutes abound. Since it appears that many of these "cop-ers" are students, perhaps they should take a stroll over to sites like Academic Superstore. They would immediately realize that in many cases huge discounts are provided to students, faculty members, and schools. For example, right now a complete copy of MS Office 2007 Enterprise can be had for $80, and this includes a free ungrade to MS Office 2010 when it is released. Not bad for a program that retails for somewhere between $600-$700.
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 11:09am

Re:
Here's the thing with students: Most of them are forced to use that software in the first place. Between extortionate book prices, increasing tuition fees and a growing trend of large debt from student loans, the last thing any student wants is to shell out $80 bucks for software that'll only get used for 4 months.

Me personally, I've managed to scrape by with free alternatives and 30 day trials, but only because my professors have been largely benevolent when it comes to student costs.
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crade (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 11:10am

Re: Maybe its me
if 43 / 100 are unlicensed
only 57 / 100 are licensed.
43 / 57 ~= .75
:)
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another mike (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 11:13am

the real BSA is at scouting.org
google-bomb the Bogus Stats Alliance and send your support to the real BSA, who should sue for trademark infringement.
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Brian (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 11:16am

Re: Re: Maybe its me
Thanks. I figured it probably me having a brain freeze there and not thinking about it.
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 11:23am

i guess this is somehow different from techdirt, where every day is time to parrot bogus "you didnt lose anything" stats from various tenured professors and content mooches from around the world.
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:Lobo Santo (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 11:28am

Re: Re: Re: Penn and Teller said it best..
It was in a post like a year or so ago...
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 11:35am

Re: Re:
OpenOffice does virtually everything that MS Office can do and IIRC its files can easily be saved in various MS file formats.

Freeware PDF programs are everywhere.

I can think of no legitimate reason why any student would need to purchase a proprietary software package when so many excellent freeware substitutes abound.

A good site for finding such software is Snapfiles.
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Hephaestus (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 11:38am

Re: CNet: Piracy costs software industry $51 billion in '09
"Please do some research before you simply re-post what is basically BSA's propaganda. A correction or followup to your recent referenced article would be helpful."

I had this discussion with someone at the washington post. the answer is all the real reporters were let go because they cost to much. The current batch of reporters never learned how to do fact checking, back ground investigations, and are not all that qualified.
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 11:47am

Re:
Like the GAO. Pffft, what do they know?
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Eric Lai (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 11:49am

Not every journalist bought the BSA line
I was a reporter at Computerworld two years ago when I wrote a pair of pieces, 'Fighting Software Piracy with Shaky Studies, and "Study says reducing piracy enriches Microsoft's partners," that strongly questioned the methodology of the BSA and our sister firm, IDC. Computerworld and IDC,are both owned by IDG. For anyone wondering, no, none of my editors tried to censor or softpedal my pieces. Mike does a great service by continuing to bang on this drum. For an in-depth academic rebuttal of the BSA/IDC studies, check out the Singapore professor Ivan Png that I quoted.
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TPBer, 12 May 2010 @ 12:10pm

Wow..
If this is all true I have about a billions worth of software myself, :0. I would never pay for software anyway, most is pure crap. Like the CS is worth 2400, give me a break adobe you keep putting out the same suite and basically move the menu items around. It just pisses us in the printing industry off. I do all I can to spread the sharing of this particular crapware.
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PaulT (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 12:18pm

Re:
You're free to provide contrary evidence if you so wish. I know that I, for one, would love to see evidence of losses through "piracy" that don't depend of faulty methodology and easily disproved assumptions. I've been waiting a long time, but we can start that discussion if you have anything to cite and make a real argument.

Also, nobody's exactly forcing you read this site, and it's been a long time since anyone took you seriously. Why bother?
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Phillip Vector (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 12:52pm

Re: Re: Penn and Teller said it best..
Sorry.. I was under the impression that just saying "First" was not allowed. I didn't. I included a link about the topic (or at least, somewhat on topic).

If saying the word First is not allowed at all in the first post, then please change the word to "Top Post". Thank you. ;)
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tracker1 (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 1:16pm

Re: the real BSA is at scouting.org
Except the BSA's largest contributor is the LDS church, which operates out of a state known for it's heavy IP protectionism. I don't think it will happen.
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 1:37pm

Re: Re:
i have only posted here for a couple of months. is that what you consider a long time?
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 1:38pm

Re: Wow..
cs ends up cost 2400 in part because so many people pirate it. if they could double the actual buyers, the price could drop in half. you see, your piracy creates the very situation you complain about.
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 1:47pm

Re: Re: Wow..
[citation needed]
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 1:48pm

Re: Re: Re:
No one takes you seriously.
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Brian (profile), 12 May 2010 @ 1:55pm

Re: Re: Wow..
Hmmm, now if only you could back that up with even a shred of evidence.
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Anonymous Lily Liver, 12 May 2010 @ 3:10pm

What about free software?
Number of programs installed - Number of programs paid for = Number of programs pirated

The only problem with the methodology I've written above (which is what they used) is that each installed copy of a free program (open source for example) gets counted as a pirated copy. The study doesn't say anywhere that number of installed programs counted includes software by BSA members, meaning the numbers are not only astoundingly inaccurate, but likely fraudulent as well.

Anyways, now we know why President McKenley named his pet parrot The Washington Post lol. It is a truly pathetic world we live in when the so called "real journalists", whom the public is expected to trust, doesn't come anywhere close to qualifying for that title, with blogs doing a far superior job of it. A good and proper journalist would do at least some research before publishing their work. You undermine the faith of your readership by not doing so, and that ultimately leads to lost subscriptions. Nobody wants to pay money for a untrustworthy publication. It is no wonder we're starting to see many of the big names in news falter.
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 5:43pm

Re: Re: Re:
Lying is so easy when you're pretending not to be TAM anymore, right TAM?
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Anonymous Coward, 12 May 2010 @ 5:43pm

Re: Re: Wow..
Oh look, another moronic claim supported by no evidence. Try again next time, TAM.
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Derek, 13 May 2010 @ 10:07am

Stop expecting corporate media to be objective
So, really, you would think that the mainstream press would at least put up some semblance of skepticism in seeing these same bogus numbers released yet again...
What? And undermine their advertisers? No way.
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PaulT (profile), 14 May 2010 @ 3:41am

Re: Re: Re:
Until you create an account and log into it, I have to assume that you're the troll formerly known as The Anti-Mike, a moron who posted ridiculous nonsensical theories for the express purpose of attacking Mike (but making himself look like a moron every time). Your posting M.O. just seems familiar.
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