Computers That Accurately Guess What Gangs Did What Crimes

from the minority-report? dept

Mon, Nov 7th 2011 10:31pm — Mike Masnick

A few folks sent over this report of efforts by some researchers at UCLA to create an algorithm that can accurately take data on existing gang-related crimes, and use it to predict what gangs were involved in new crimes. It certainly has that "minority report -- pre-crime" feel to it, though I can certainly see where it could be useful. What concerns me, though, is that systems like this are only as accurate as the data they use. And, as has been reported elsewhere, one of the unintended consequences of such computer analysis of crime data is that it drives police departments to falsify or change crime reports in order to make their own numbers look better. So it makes you wonder how accurate those reports will be if the incentives to fudge the actual crime data continue to be in place.

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Filed Under: computers, crimes, gangs

22 Comments

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PW (profile), 7 Nov 2011 @ 11:19pm

The cost of being wrong
Where this sort of tech is nice when applied to targeted advertising or what music you're likely to like, it's always disconcerting when it's applied to more serious endeavors. While most of these systems are never more than 70% accurate (if that), let's give them the benefit of the doubt and call it 90% accurate. That means that 10% of the time someone is being treated like a criminal that genuinely isn't. Note the number of false positives that arose from the "No Fly List". Too many to justify the system that's for sure. To those adversely affected, it's a nightmare that has a traumatic affect on their lives. Given that I've yet to see any of these systems live up to their hype, and the signals they use are often insufficient to meet their stated goals, I really wish people would put more energy into making sure the ads I get are really relevant ;)
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TechnoMage (profile), 7 Nov 2011 @ 11:30pm

There is something called the CS Heisenberg Principle
It isn't 'exactly' what is described here, but in general, You can't actually measure how good a Computer based system is working without slowing down/altering the performance of that system.

The relationship of how 'knowing something' will end up altering it... seems relevant here.

That being said, this isn't 'exactly' right, but I get the same feeling here. Basically the more that people know this method is being used, the more that people will use it "swat" other gangs. (IE... perform a gang attack 'where/how/when' another (you're competitor) is 'suppose' to do a crime, and then have them blamed for it.
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TechnoMage (profile), 7 Nov 2011 @ 11:31pm

Re: There is something called the CS Heisenberg Principle
And yes, I know the CS version is based off the original/real Heisenberg principle.
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Old Fool (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 12:11am

I worry about this kind of thing, it's not computers taking over the world. It's the operators.

Polygraph test are allowed in court, and they are notoriously easy to fake. Is this next?
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grumpy (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 1:48am

Meh?
So instead of needing the gut feelings of a few experienced cops a police department can now let everyone have the gut feeling love. I don't see how narrowing your list of prime suspects is going to have any impact on anyones rights.

Data quality is a valid point, however as it has other implications too this project shouldn't be blamed for it.
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Anonymous Coward, 8 Nov 2011 @ 1:54am

"So it makes you wonder how accurate those reports will be if the incentives to fudge the actual crime data continue to be in place."

Alternatively, it could be considered an incentive NOT to fudge the numbers.
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The Devil's Coachman (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 4:33am

Once the gangs find out who's programming this......
......there may be some changes in the output of it, due to changes in the input processing algorithms. ;)
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abc gum, 8 Nov 2011 @ 4:37am

Probable cause at the push of a button - awesome.
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Anonymous Coward, 8 Nov 2011 @ 4:37am

Accuracy is relative, with that being said if it is used for leads and not as an authoritative form of anything for convicting someone and it is used as an ancillary tool I don't see the problem, it could point people on the right direction with the need for an actual investigation.

But really what is needed is a total retraining of the police force they don't know how to operate in a world with civilians, the organization is incompetent not because there is no intelligent person in there but because the culture inside is dumb, something people call collective intelligence, the ground rules are wrong and so the outcomes from those institutions are unacceptable.
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Anonymous Coward, 8 Nov 2011 @ 4:55am

Mostly agree with all the comments above. Any human acts to 'game' the results are a big concern and real police work should never be substituted with this kind of system. Even if used, it should be more like a homemade compass than a high resolution GPS system.
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Bergman (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 5:41am

What would be funny, is if you also loaded profiles for various police agencies. FBI, LAPD, etc.

It would certainly amuse the hell out of me if, at some future date, they consulted the machine to see who knocked over the liquor store, and discovered it was the cops.
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NullOp, 8 Nov 2011 @ 5:59am

data
Oh boy! People in the data again. For whatever reason, people simply can't let the data speak for itself. The worst offender of all time....our government.
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DannyB (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 6:11am

The Batcomputer
The batcomputer was guessing which criminals did what crimes, way back in the 1960's. These UCLA researchers are way behind the times.

Furthermore, in the episode "The Londinium Larcenies", where the evil Lord Ffogg was stealing the queen's priceless snuff boxes, and Batman had to be called across the Atlantic because the venerable Ireland Yard was unable to solve the crime, the Batcomputer (and other bat cave equipment) was set up in a dungeon directly below a country manor conveniently located directly below a country manor rented by Bruce Wayne. So obviously the bat computer also runs on 220 volts. Did those UCLA researchers think of that?

(Do I win the prize for longest run on sentence?)
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DannyB (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 6:12am

Re: The Batcomputer
Sorry, I should have proofread. :-(
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Anonymous Coward, 8 Nov 2011 @ 7:09am

Re: The cost of being wrong
it isn't like they're going to run right out and arrest these people! this will just provide more data to lead to actual investigation.
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Overcast (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 7:42am

it isn't like they're going to run right out and arrest these people! this will just provide more data to lead to actual investigation.

At the moment - that is true. At the moment.

Of course, that's all what was said about the cameras at intersections too - "they will never actually issue tickets... " blah, blah, blah.

Oh yeah, lol - ans this too..

Social Security Number - "never to be used for purposes of identification"

Humanity's legacy is one big long line of "things that won't/can't happen" - and then they do, almost always to the benefit of the powerful and to the demise of the common people.
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Overcast (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 7:45am

"I worry about this kind of thing, it's not computers taking over the world. It's the operators."

Sorta...

Remember that line from the movie Tron?

"Dr. Walter Gibbs: Won't that be grand? Computers and the programs will start thinking and the people will stop."

But yes, in the end it's the people who are paying to put all these computer networks together - and it's not done out of a love for technology - that might be why most of us are in the business - but for much of the world - computers are about *control*.
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Anonymous Coward, 8 Nov 2011 @ 9:10am

This is just a computerized version of profiling. Humans do it too. Different criminals and gangs have different modes of operations and if we see a crime, we try to associate the criminal of one crime to other crimes based on various characteristics and based on a criminals MO. Do people always make accurate guesses? No. Neither will computers. The computer is only as accurate as the data and algorithms fed to it and even then there likely is no perfect algorithm. GIGO.
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Anonymous Coward, 8 Nov 2011 @ 9:34am

Kill it with fire
This smacks of the same stuff of which the 'lie detector' is made. Good technology saddled with bad data and a heaps of piss-poor assumptions and conjecture that prove nothing and generate mountains of false leads.

The only thing this app is going to do is further blunt the already dull tools that comprise the bulk of our police forces.

Try sticking with good old detective work.
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Gene Cavanaugh (profile), 8 Nov 2011 @ 10:00am

Computer use for gang-related crimes
RIGHT ON, Michael!

Police reports are pretty questionable as it is (there is reason to believe the police, who are trained to "think quickly" are biased on a number of bases, often without even realizing it).
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PRMan, 8 Nov 2011 @ 12:32pm

Re: There is something called the CS Heisenberg Principle
Remember the phone hacker who was getting the police to show up and do no-knock raids on completely innocent people...
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Anonymous Coward, 8 Nov 2011 @ 7:45pm

Re: Re: The cost of being wrong
If you have any interaction with police and your name pops out of their computer for any reason you will be treated like you are guilty. It is easy to see how an otherwise innocent person might get pulled over for a traffic violation and suddenly be treated like a felon.
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