When Entertainment Industry Numbers Are More Suited To Comedy Than Analysis

from the sorry-MPAA-but-nobody's-buying-it dept

Thu, Mar 15th 2012 11:54am — Leigh Beadon

We've often criticized the entertainment industry for their use of utterly bogus math to claim massive, completely unrealistic losses from piracy. As Mike once noted, "it would actually be kind of funny... if policy makers and the press didn't actually believe those numbers and pass bad legislation based on them."

That said, it can still be pretty damn funny, as this brilliant 5-minute TED talk by Rob Reid demonstrates:

If you didn't watch the video (you should), it's a sarcastic take on "©opyright Math™" in which Reid plays along with the industry's numbers in order to expose how ridiculous they are:

The movie folks also tell us that our economy loses over 370,000 jobs to content theft, which is quite a lot when you consider that back in '98 the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the motion picture and video industries were employing 270,000 people. Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people. And so the job losses that came with the internet and all that content theft have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries. This is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day. And some people think that string theory is tough.

Reid doesn't do any actual debunking, because he doesn't need to—the numbers are so plainly false that just putting them in the spotlight is enough to get the audience laughing. It's a lot of fun, but it also underlines the bigger question: why do journalists and policy makers still blindly accept and repeat those same numbers? Hopefully, as more and more people recognize the industry's claims for the comedic fiction that they are, that will begin to change.

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Filed Under: bad math, piracy, rob reid, ted talks
Companies: mpaa

121 Comments

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Hephaestus (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 11:34am

Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
What is the square root of Minus one?
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:Lobo Santo (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 11:57am

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
Pi: Get real!
i: Be rational!
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 11:57am

why do ... policy makers still blindly accept and repeat those same numbers?

Hard to see over large piles of money.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 11:58am

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
i
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Chris N, 15 Mar 2012 @ 11:58am

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
i
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 11:59am

Anyone know when the HBO Comedy special is scheduled to air?
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anonymous dutch coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 11:59am

why?
"why do journalists and policy makers still blindly accept and repeat those same numbers?"

because they are incompetent and laizy?
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:00pm

and before long, pigs are gonna sprout wings!
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:01pm

It's pretty standard - how many people are TOUCHED by an industry? If the movie industry disappeared overnight tomorrow, you can bet that way more than 270,000 people would be out of work - so how big is the industry, really?

Ridiculing the numbers as an excuse to decimate their business with piracy is totally stupid - once again Mike highlights that concept on Techdirt.
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Rich, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:02pm

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
There are plenty of math geeks here! Picture this: The integral of e to the x equals the function of u to the n.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:03pm

Re:
Um. Mike didn't write the article. Apparently the defenders are bad at both reading and math.
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Rich, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:03pm

Re:
Ladies and Gentlemen:

I give you, The Strawman!
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:Lobo Santo (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:05pm

Re: Yer Funny....
Well, that's just silly.

The only way to completely do away with the movie industry overnight would be to 'disappear' (nudge, nudge, wink wink) everybody who works in that industry.

Therefore, logically, there wouldn't be anybody around to pine for the job they didn't have. P'sh, like duh.

Also, you're ugly.

(Am I doing it right?)
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:06pm

Re: Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
e^x = f(u)^n dx
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:10pm

I'm almost always completely in favor of the viewpoints on techdirt, but this one is a bit silly. The numbers claim 370,000 jobs lost, and Reid is only pointing at numbers directly in the movie/music industries. If those industries are actually suffering (which they aren't, I'm just playing devil's advocate on this particular article), the ripple effect would spread out to retailers, shipping companies, etc.,
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Tim K (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:12pm

Re:
decimate their business with piracy is totally stupid

Won't anyone think of the ringtone industry!
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:13pm

Re:
how many people are TOUCHED by an industry?

Quite a few if the MPAA had control over the internet how they want. Which is why the internet hates them.

so how big is the industry, really?

Maybe you should do some research and find some verifiable, credible numbers instead of just making stuff up?

Ridiculing the numbers as an excuse to decimate their business with piracy is totally stupid

Please quote something from the write up that shows that this is an excuse to decimate the business with piracy.

But, it's a moot point. Technology is going to continue to drive prices down for the traditional MPAA business. Get over it.

once again Mike highlights that concept on Techdirt.

And again, just making up 'facts.'
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:13pm

It's true, the music industry & Hollywood are in negative employment.

The typical person working in the music industry or Hollywood has to pay $100,000 to their employer just to do what they love, and pay for their employers health insurance.

These poor people can only go on for so long paying their bosses to work for them, eventually they'll run out of money, and no one will work in the music industry! The same thing is also happening in Hollywood!
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:16pm

Re: Re:
Umm, dumbass... it's Mike's site. You don't think he approves every story?

After all, Marcus is just his lapdog anyway. Toady writes just like the boss.
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Rich, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:19pm

Re: Re: Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
It's not funny without the integral symbol.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:19pm

Re:
Yes, but the problem with the industry's numbers are that they take full credit for complete employment of sectors that are only partially reliant on the entertainment industry. i.e. if Hollywood vanishes, yes, a lot of caterers will feel a pinch. But the entire catering industry won't go down.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:19pm

Re:
Everybody knows "executives" are worth 100s of times more than a regular employee. They just factored in the inequalities that exist in our society!
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Hephaestus (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:20pm

Re: Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
I was actually looking for ... much like content company math its an imaginary number.
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Stig Rudeholm (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:20pm

Re:
- "Ridiculing the numbers as an excuse to decimate their business with piracy is totally stupid"

Please provide some actual proof that the business is actually being decimated by piracy.

Go ahead, I'll wait...
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[citation needed or GTFO], 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:20pm

Re: Re: Re:
You don't think he approves every story?

Then where's yours?
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:21pm

Re: Re: Re:
Um. You really can't read, can you? Marcus didn't write the article either!
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Hephaestus (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:22pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
Whats wrong with you, have you been taking derivatives? ;)
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:23pm

Re:
True, but even with that looking at job losses/gains in a specific industry is largely meaningless from a policy standpoint.

What really matters is overall job growth of the ENTIRE economy. Even assuming 370k jobs lost (from piracy!!!), the previous spending that supported those jobs is just moved to a different industry. Piracy doesn't destroy currency or take it from the economy, it just allows it to be spent on different things.

You can argue whether that's good or bad thing, but the job gain/loss figures are still meaningless when only looking at one industry.
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Rich, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:23pm

Re: Re: Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
∫e^x = �(u)^n
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:25pm

Re: Re:
Someone should really start ConfectionDirt to bring down Big Catering. They have it coming.
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Suja (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:26pm

When Entertainment Industry Numbers Are More Suited To Comedy Than Analysis

I read that as "When Entertainment Industry Are More Suited To Comedy" I was like, no shit, that's probably why we've kept these clowns around as long as we have, it's just too damn funny watching them making fools of themselves.

Why the fuck would I buy any of their shit? They provide better entertainment for free than they make.
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Ninja (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:26pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
I object to that, I'd rather derive it to the -1. And if you insist in having geek fun do it 1/2 just for the heck of it.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:28pm

Re: Re: Re:
Trying to pin the blame on the service provider?

You've been learning a few things from the AAssholes.
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[citation needed or GTFO], 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:28pm

Re: Re: Re: Re:
No! It's a trap! Leigh Beadon IS Marcus! Don't give him an easy target to be right!
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Torg (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:28pm

If the content industries are such a drain on the economy that they actually have negative jobs, we should probably get rid of them entirely and make do with YouTube.
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Suja (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:30pm

Re:
And that's the real root of piracy today.

Don't like me downloading your "content", Hollywood? Then stop being so damn entertaining, no amount of forced stupidity in shoveled-shit-films can replace true genuine stupidity from people who aren't actors.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:31pm

Re: Re: Re:
A dirty catering company would bring itself down.
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Ninja (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:31pm

Re:
Not really. Content would still be created and a myriad of independent producers would pop up without the MAFIAA around to bully them. Actually I'd guess the only unemployed ones would be the ex-MAFIAA employees and the overall number of employed people in the creative sectors would actually boom.

You failed when you assumed that MAFIAA is needed for the jobs in the movie/music business to exist. And that's why the MAFIAA pushes so hard for law protections. Because it has become irrelevant.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:31pm

Re:
" If those industries are actually suffering (which they aren't, I'm just playing devil's advocate on this particular article), the ripple effect would spread out to retailers, shipping companies, etc."

True they are not actually dying but they are taking normal job loss due to technological advancement and blaming it on piracy. For instance sony closed a CD manufacturing plant that made the sony brand blank dvds. Obviously those jobs are lost to piracy. Movie Theaters have closed but not because of the rise of the home theater, its because of piracy. ect ect
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:31pm

Re: Re: Re: Re:
Oh wait! So will big media.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:32pm

Re: Re: Re: Re:
hmmmm, depends on what you mean by "dirty".....
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:33pm

Re:
Ridiculing the numbers as an excuse to decimate their business with piracy is totally stupid - once again Mike highlights that concept on Techdirt.

So you're justifying making up numbers to save your little ivory tower at any cost on Techdirt?
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Gwiz (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:33pm

Re: Re: Re: Re:
Um. You really can't read, can you? Marcus didn't write the article either!

Marcus = Leigh.

http://www.techdirt.com/user/leigh
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:34pm

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
The square root of minus one? Surely that can't be real!
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Ninja (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:35pm

Re:
Wrong. Those jobs rely on the movie and music business. MAFIAA is not needed for music and movies to be produced. (And games and so on but let us focus on the real rotten apples)
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Suja (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:35pm

Re:
I'm questioning how they are even still around if they have negative jobs you'd think people like Chris Dodd and what's-her-name the old lady shill girl wouldn't even have internet access a couple of unemployed bums on the street or atleast working in a McDonald's somewhere.

But apparently that's not the case, they should be grateful they even still have a job, alot of people don't even have that anymore.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:40pm

Such a weird troll on here. What kind of person has such a fanatical devotion to Hollywood?
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TtfnJohn (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:41pm

Re:
Even if you use the standard ratio that one middlingly paid full time job supports three other minimum wage jobs you're left with a number just over 750,000 jobs which may or may not be full time jobs just as Hollywood's number of 270,000 is a mixture of full and part time jobs.

The rest of the numbers invite ridicule all by themselves it's just that Reid does a much better job than most at it by using the numbers against themselves.

Remember Mark Twain's saying that "numbers don't lie but liars can figure". which is exactly what's happening here.
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:Lobo Santo (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:41pm

Re: Re: Re: Re:
...I think that depends on the sort of "dirty" we're talking about.

;-P
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TtfnJohn (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:44pm

Re:
Not to worry, he's well paid. If not in cash then in mind altering substances. :-)
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:46pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
In that case, I did say "bring itself down"
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:54pm

Their numbers are no more unrealistic than those offered by the theives who pirate content.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:54pm

Re: Re:
What really matters is overall job growth of the ENTIRE economy.

This. One thousand times this. If we could eliminate the entire movie/music "industry" BUT add a million tech jobs: of course we should. It'd be good for the economy, good for the country, good for the world. And for those who cannot accept and adapt to this?

Die. You're obsolete, and you deserve extinction.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 12:57pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
Damn it, I was on a roll too.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:00pm

Re:
What numbers would those be?
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:01pm

Re:
That was not a counter argument or even a rational.

Fail! My daughter can provide better useless retorts than that.

You have a teenager? Take some lessons.
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Suja (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:02pm

Re: Re:
I've probably pirated around 2000 songs so far but I know that number's off I have/find so much crap I can't keep track of what I've downloaded anymore.
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[citation needed or GTFO], 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:03pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
Mmm...Whipped cream, anyone? ;)
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:04pm

Re:
So we all agree that thieves will rationalize their thievery with completely unrealistic numbers and that the MPAA/RIAA/MAFIAA are among their number. Good then, let's move forward using this as common ground.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:07pm

Re:
Maybe if the content industries didn't continually try to weasel out of the social contract it made with society in order to get copyright protection in the first place, in exchange for ever so often enhancing the public domain with old works, then people would support the content industries. My kids won't get paid for the work I do today, why should yours?
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John Fenderson (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:08pm

Re:
If the movie industry disappeared overnight tomorrow, you can bet that way more than 270,000 people would be out of work

This assertion seems ludicrous on its face. Can you support it?

That jobs may be touched by the industry doesn't mean those jobs go away if the industry does. Jobs "touched" by the industry are ones that rely on more than just that industry. If that industry vanishes, those touched businesses still have other clients.

And, very likely, the movie industry does not represent their largest source of income. In the wider spectrum of things, the movie industry is not particularly huge.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:10pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
"Marcus = Leigh."

Also, Dark Helmet = Mike Masnick

and

Capitalist Lion Tamer = Russell Simmons.

Bet you guys didn't know THAT shit, did you?
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:10pm

Oh come now!
"...way more than 270,000 people would be out of work..."

Please. I happen to know for a fact that not all of them are actually what most of us would consider "people."
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:16pm

Re: Re:
Actually he isn't wrong.

Imagine how bad the economy would have to be for the movie industry to completely disappear, then imagine how bad it would have to be for that to happen overnight.

So really, all he is saying is, that in a world where almost no one has a job, a world where the movie industry could disappear overnight then the numbers of people out of work would be astronomical.

Such a pity that he doesn't get that it's the movie industry that's dependent on other people having jobs rather than jobs being dependent on the movie industry.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:19pm

Re: Re:
Adam Sandler?
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weneedhelp (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:25pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
Capitalist Lion Tamer = Russell Simmons.

Russel Simmons Russel Simmons?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Simmons

GTFO!!!!

L E G E N D A R Y ! ! !
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Chuck Norris' Enemy (deceased) (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:25pm

Re:
Well, maybe if you take into account all the lawyers working for the content industries, sure, they'd be out of work. But I don't see a drawback here.
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Chuck Norris' Enemy (deceased) (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:28pm

Re: Re: Re:
As long as there is a paywall involved.
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Richard (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:28pm

Re:
Ridiculing the numbers as an excuse to decimate their business with piracy is totally stupid - once again Mike highlights that concept on Techdirt.

But they claim that their business is being more than merely decimated.

Decimated means cut by 10% - but then since you comment from the industry's side I'm not surprised by your ignorance.
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Suja (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:33pm

Re: Re: Re:
I've probably seen him and didn't realize it was him so not sure.

Still, there's just something special about "live" stupidity, it's the part where you know they probably believe/take seriously the shit they spew.
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Richard (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:34pm

Re:
the ripple effect would spread out to retailers, shipping companies, etc.,

Not necessarily - they would just need to shift their focus. There are other things to shify and sell.

In any case - for the sake of argument - suppose that the industry had a really effective DRM (yes I know that's impossible) - but simply followed the technologically obvious path of switching to online selling via downloads.

All those second order businesses would be just as strongly affected as they would if the industry was destroyed by piracy. Do you really think the big content bosses would give a sh**?
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:41pm

Re:
Oh ok so I get it. How many people are TOUCHED (ie affected by the industry)? Well then that makes ALL the difference in the world. Let's see if count all the people that are affected by the draconian laws they illegally bought then the number is MUCH higher.

Or did you want to exclude all of the people that were "touched inappropriately"?

PS: Screwing over the artists you are supposed represent counts as "touching inappropriately" so think wisely before you recalculate.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:47pm

Re: Re:
Ringtones are just the tiny innocent content that hope someday to be as important as the original recordings the were created from. These innocent children are important and HAVE to be protected at all cost.
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Joe Publius (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:49pm

Re:
How many people have been TOUCHED by the industry? Is that counting the people who have been ripped off by "entertainment accounting" or collection societies?
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Joe Publius (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 1:51pm

Re: Re: Re: Re:
As long as there is a paywall involved.

Bobbleganger, is that you?
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Gwiz (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 2:10pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
Also, Dark Helmet = Mike Masnick

Nah. That can't be true. I know Mike really likes baseball and I think DH is a Cubby fan. so......

Capitalist Lion Tamer = Russell Simmons.

Wait. I thought he was Richard Simmons.

Disclaimer: This comment is purely for comical purposes and doesn't really reflect my true view of either Tim involved.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 2:31pm

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
"i"
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 2:34pm

Re:
Of course this is what is being alleged, but if these are to be criticized then so should the employment numbers that were bandied about regarding the "internet industry".
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 2:48pm

Re: Re: Re:
The largest company within the aerospace industry is Boeing, having a total worldwide number of employees somewhere in the neighborhood of about 170,000. When it comes to aerospace related jobs, however, these 170,000 rely upon a worldwide supply chain that is significantly larger, a very large number of which in the chain are dependent almost entirely on work sent to them by Boeing. If Boeing ceased operating tomorrow the ripple effect for immediate job losses would almost certainly be 2-3 times (and perhaps more) Boeing's current employee base.

This is not to say that Boeing and the entertainment industry are a fair one-for-one comparison, but only to note that far more is at stake than just the jobs at the highest tier company in an industry chain.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 3:01pm

Re:
Show us on the doll where the MPAA touched you.
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Prisoner 201, 15 Mar 2012 @ 3:01pm

Re:
Show us on this doll where the MAFIAA touched you.
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Lawrence D'Oliveiro, 15 Mar 2012 @ 3:10pm

Re: ... far more is at stake than just the jobs at the highest tier company in an industry chain.
Still irrelevant, though. You�d have to claim that those hanger-on industries did nothing but serve that one small group of companies, and were exclusively dependent on them. In fact most of them get plenty of business elsewhere. So if this one group of their customers were to disappear, the disruption would at most be temporary.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 3:22pm

Anybody saw the public standing up to applaud the guy?

That is how tired people are of the entertainment industry.
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Samuel Abram (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 3:25pm

Re: Re: Re:
If we could eliminate the entire movie/music "industry" BUT add a million tech jobs: of course we should.

When you say "eliminate the movie/music industry", you mean the gatekeepers like the Major Labels and the Hollywood Studios, right? Because it could be argued that since I have an album on bandcamp, I'm part of the music industry. I have a bandcamp site, discs from a CD-replicating plant, plus digital distribution on stores such as emusic, iTunes, and Amazon.com MP3. In that respect I am part of the music industry. One thing's for sure is that I would refuse to sign onto a major label given the chance, considering that "Delenda est internet" is their motto.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 3:27pm

Re: Re: Re: Re:
Please enlighten people of the third party jobs that only the entertainment industry provides that would be imparted by the suddenly demise of said industry.
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Karl (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 3:31pm

Re:
Their numbers are no more unrealistic than those offered by the theives who pirate content.

So far as I know, none of the "theives who pirate content" have ever offered any numbers.

People critical of the MPAA/RIAA certainly have, but they are not (and don't represent) "theives who pirate content."

So, what numbers are you talking about?
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Not an Electronic Rodent (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 3:36pm

Re: Re: Yer Funny....
Nah, needs more pointless venom on the ad-hom. Also more obviously spurious logic.
3/10
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 4:20pm

Re: Re:
Still pretending record industry revenue being halved in a decade wasn't because of piracy?

Snore.

I wonder how long it'll take you to get to six strikes...
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Heckler, 15 Mar 2012 @ 4:42pm

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
i
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Heckler, 15 Mar 2012 @ 4:47pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
Funny stuff...gotta love all the math geeks here!!!!! :-)Glad to know i'm not alone
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Dumbster, 15 Mar 2012 @ 4:53pm

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
What are people who don't know basic maths called? Industry professionals.
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Cowardly Anonymous, 15 Mar 2012 @ 5:05pm

Re: Re: Re:
Illegal price fixing ruled against (government)

Move to digital goods (tech)

Move to singles over albums (consumer)

Greater competition (artists)

Pirates certainly weren't the only group that had a hand in that, if they even contributed at all, that is.
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Karl (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 5:05pm

Re: Re: Re:
Still pretending record industry revenue being halved in a decade wasn't because of piracy?

It's not "pretending," it's true.

The record profits that labels had in the late 1990's was due entirely to CD sales. Prior to the introduction of the CD, the major labels weren't making any more money than they are now.

In the late 90's and early 2000's, the SRP of retail CD's was $17-$19. These prices were artificially inflated (and subject to a lawsuit by the FTC). Labels were pushing "hit-song-friendly" artists, and you had to pay for the full album to get that hit song; the labels were deliberately eliminating CD singles, for exactly that reason.

But even if piracy was eliminated tomorrow, people still wouldn't buy full-length CD's. They'd buy MP3's off of Amazon, iTunes, etc. Most would buy single songs.

In fact, people already are doing this - in record numbers. Music purchases have done nothing but increase in the past ten years. The fact that those purchases make less money for the labels is the primary reason why they are failing.

When the labels did try to enter the realm of digital sales, their "efforts" (Pressplay and MusicNet) were spectacular and colossal failures. Outrageously expensive ($3-$4 per track), and hobbled with outrageous DRM (some songs would "expire" after a month), consumers avoided them like the plague. It's also worth noting that those services are the subject of yet another class-action lawsuit for price fixing (Starr v. Sony et. al.).

There are other reasons, of course. DVD's didn't exist in the 1990's, and the decline in CD sales just happens to coincide with the rapid rise in DVD sales. Video games also came into their own since then, so they have even more competition for consumer dollars from them.

Plus, the actions labels took to "stop piracy" didn't actually stop piracy, but did eliminate any claims of higher moral standing they might have had. From suing grandmothers and teenagers for hundreds of thousands of dollars, to drafting SOPA and PIPA, the labels have done nothing but make themselves the most hated industry on the face of the planet. (This, on top of their widely-known tendency to fuck over artists whatever chance they got.) There's no question that most people will take any chance they can get to make sure RIAA clients never get a dime from them.

Piracy probably did have some impact. But it isn't the primary reason the labels are failing - not even close. They're failing because they're incompetent businessmen.

Eliminating piracy will do nothing to fix that.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 5:44pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
Popcorn farmers!
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 6:05pm

Re: Re: Re: Re:
"Piracy probably did have some impact."

At a time when music has never been so popular, so widely consumed, and so widely used... yet the music industry (you know, the ones making that very product) have lost almost 60% of the business in the 10 years since Napster.

Yeah, piracy probably only has a small part to play. That small piece of ice in front of the Titanic probably only made it list very slightly to one side too!
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 6:38pm

Re:
>If the movie industry disappeared overnight tomorrow, you can bet that way more than 270,000 people would be out of work - so how big is the industry, really?

Ah, yes, you mean like the people who roll out the red carpet, drive trucks full of CDs or arrange bouquets for music awards - that sort of math that Chris Dodd likes to use. Clearly, since everyone listens to or is exposed to music at some point, if the music industry went down civilisation would grind to a complete halt.

What a thorough crock of shit.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 7:12pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
The recording industry is a subset of the overall music industry. But you knew that.
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Karl (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 8:40pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
At a time when music has never been so popular, so widely consumed, and so widely used...

...and the record labels are getting royalties on almost all of it.

You're also acting like people have stopped spending money on music. They haven't. The amount of music purchases has increased in the past 10 years. The amount of money that has been spent on music has been consistently increasing. It's just that music purchases are now single MP3 tracks, and that the increased spending has occurred in parts of the industry (e.g. live shows) that make the artists money, rather than the labels.

you know, the ones making that very product

The labels are not, and never were, the ones making music. That would be the artists. Artists are making music at higher rates than ever before in history. And more of the money being spent is going directly to them.

Also, there are simply more artists. The largest growth of music has been with independent artists and non-RIAA labels. There are more people than ever "making that very product." Many are not part of what you refer to as "the music industry," but in fact, the artists using YouTube, Soundcloud, iTunes, or TuneCore - and even those that use "pirate sites" like The Pirate Bay or Megaupload - are the new music industry.

lost almost 60% of the business in the 10 years since Napster.

Income from CD sales had plateaued before Napster came along. They didn't begin dropping until after Napster was shut down.

It's not "the 10 years since Napster." It's the 10 years since digital distribution. That's what the market wants, and that's exactly the market that the labels refused to enter (and tried to keep others from entering).

The idea that they're failing simply because of piracy is a flat-out lie.

One you're only happy to repeat. I notice that you did not address even one of the many other things I brought up. Quite obviously, you keep repeating "piracy" to detract from the fact that labels brought this on themselves through their own sheer incompetence.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 9:07pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
You are just full of shit.

The music industry grew, the record industry shrunk. Not the entire industry.

Besides I do remember very vividly that the "educational campaign" backfired and was responsible for a sharp decline in record sales. Now that you don't account for do you?
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 10:10pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
I love when you bozos try to argue that piracy wasn't the main instigator of revenue decline.

All the effort to expose you as zealots is done by you.
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Karl (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 10:26pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
I love when you bozos try to argue that piracy wasn't the main instigator of revenue decline.

I love it when rational arguments and facts are met with nothing but "but... but... piracy!" sprinkled with idiotic ad hominem attacks.

All the effort to expose people like you as zealots is done by you.

Seriously, if you want to know who's responsible for turning The Pirate Bay into folk heroes, just find a mirror.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 10:26pm

Re:
While your comment is utter nonsense, you assume that IP abolition will disseminate the movie industry. People will continue to make movies without IP and saying otherwise is a lie because you know better.

But even if IP abolition does somehow magically disseminate the movie industry, I don't care. I would rather IP be abolished and the movie industry be disseminated than to allow our currently one sided IP laws to exist.
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Anonymous Coward, 15 Mar 2012 @ 10:36pm

We need to create a day where everyone calls congress and signs a petition to retroactively shorten copy protection lengths and perhaps change the penalty structure to be less one sided.
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Ophelia Millais (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 10:43pm

Challenge to music industry: tell us how you figure your piracy losses
No one knows how the RIAA, MPAA, etc. come up with their "loss" figures. Why don't they tell us? What do they have to hide?

Reid chose the $150,000 per-willfully-infringed-work cap on statutory damages as the basis for his "$8 billion iPod" punchline. The RIAA is currently aggressively litigating two file-sharing cases with that $150,000/work damage cap, so it is effectively what the industry says music is worth, although everyone acknowledges that it bears little relation to actual damages. It's just the upper end of a range the law allows, possibly in part for its deterrent effect, as an option when actual damages are difficult to determine or are just too low to be worthwhile.

I would've liked if he went on to point out what was raised in the Sony BMG v. Tenenbaum appeal: with damage figures like that, the "value" of even a small fraction of the number of files being shared not only makes lawsuits against file-sharers extremely profitable, but it quickly exceeds the global GDP: all the money in the entire world couldn't pay for a few hundred iPods full of music.
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Karl (profile), 15 Mar 2012 @ 11:17pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
By the way, if you want to read a well-thought-out position on all of this, I recommend:

Time for the Recording Industry to Face the Music (PDF), by Mark Cooper.

The section entitled "Technologies of Distribution" is especially apropos.

Cooper is Director of Research for the Consumer Federation of America, a coalition of non-profit groups whose mission is to advocate for consumer rights, and has been around for over forty years.

Or, as you put it, one of "you bozos."
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Loki, 16 Mar 2012 @ 1:01am

Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
Oddly enough, we were just joking about that at dinner tonight (this house is like a real world version of Big Bang Theory, just slightly less exaggerated).
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PaulT (profile), 16 Mar 2012 @ 4:05am

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
"I love when you bozos try to argue that piracy wasn't the main instigator of revenue decline. "

I love it when you pull things like that out of your ass and refuse to even discuss the possibility of the many other factors involved being more important (unbundling, backfiring of DRM, massive competition from new entertainment options, among others). I once again welcome such a debate, especially if backed with facts.

But, you know, an actual discussion is less fun for you than ad homs and personal attacks peppered with conspiracy theories because your beloved physical sales went down and you don't want to compete.
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bratwurzt (profile), 16 Mar 2012 @ 5:58am

Re: Re: Re:
"record industry revenue being halved in a decade"

Internet. It's called the internet - buggy makers became redundant when Ford started with cheap cars. Recording industry is redundant - I can record at home.
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bratwurzt (profile), 16 Mar 2012 @ 6:02am

Re: Re:
"For instance sony closed a CD manufacturing plant that made the sony brand blank dvds. Obviously those jobs are lost to piracy."

CD is almost 40 years old (1976). It's a redundant data medium. You aren't crying for magnetic tape manufacturing plants, are you?
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ASTROBOI, 16 Mar 2012 @ 6:28am

Re:
"why do ... policy makers still blindly accept and repeat those same numbers?"

Why? Because that's what humans do. How many things do you (and I) blindly believe even after a thoughtful analysis show them to be nonsense?

As a nation we support the War On Drugs even though it has been shown to be a failure and counter-productive. We are told constantly about the dangers of Kiddie Porn even though the number of persons involved in producing it is microscopic. Meanwhile we ignore non-sexual assults on children because we have a belief in "spare the rod" nonsense.

How many people believe in homeopathic medicine? Faith healing? Psycic surgery? Ghosts? Power of prayer?

Humans are programed to believe rubbish. It takes a great effort to see through the crap.

Most of the folks here see through the crap of the RIAA and their cohorts. Do we see through the rest of the crap? I don't know. SOMEBODY voted for Santorum!
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TDR, 16 Mar 2012 @ 7:13am

It sounds like it's time for... the TROLL SONG!!

*AC maximalist copytard trolls all sing along*

Reality! Reality! We just can't stand reality!

Greed is good, greed is great!
We just love to voice the hate!
We can't stand what we can't slam!
We just shill 'cause it pays the bill!

Reality! Reality! We just can't stand reality!

Twisting words is such a feat,
We just can't help but shoot our feet!
We won't see the good of free!
We just go blame instead of change!

Reality! Reality! We just can't stand reality!

Building strawmen is so fun!
We just love to cut and run!
We can't fool, we're just a tool!
We just hate to be proved a fake!

Reality! Reality! We just can't stand reality!
Reality! Reality! We just can't stand reality!
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Anonymous Coward, 16 Mar 2012 @ 8:52am

Re: Re: Re: Re:
The guy above you is saying internet piracy had nothing to do with it.

Which is it?

Oh, and people have been able to record at home since the 1970's.

So?
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John Fenderson (profile), 16 Mar 2012 @ 10:05am

Re: Re: Re: Re:
When it comes to aerospace related jobs, however, these 170,000 rely upon a worldwide supply chain that is significantly larger, a very large number of which in the chain are dependent almost entirely on work sent to them by Boeing.

Absolutely true. The same thing is true with other major manufacturing industries such as the automotive.

But Boeing and Hollywood are very different in this respect. The ripple-effect of non-manufacturing industries, such as Hollywood, is substantially smaller. The vast majority of the businesses that support IP businesses such as Hollywood are not special-purpose to the single industry and don't (or shouldn't) rely on a single industry for their business.

There are a few special-purpose businesses that cater solely to Hollywood, and these would of course be impacted, but we're not talking a large number of people there.
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Chris-Mouse (profile), 16 Mar 2012 @ 11:31am

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Probably not enough math geeks here to get this ...
Creating a derivative work would be a violation of copyright.
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Karl (profile), 16 Mar 2012 @ 3:14pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
The guy above you is saying internet piracy had nothing to do with it.

If you're referring to me, I never said piracy had nothing to do with it.

Just that recording industries' incompetence had much more to do with it than piracy.

Also, people may have been able to do home recording since the 1970's, but it was still far too expensive to be done by the majority. Home recording really didn't become mainstream until the late 1990's.

And they certainly could not have copied, distributed, and sold (or given away) their recordings as easily as they can now. Compare how easy it was to get a CD into record stores, vs. using BandCamp, Soundcloud, CD Baby, TuneCore, etc.

But, go ahead and ignore all of this, and keep focusing on piracy alone. It just means you'll go bankrupt sooner.
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JEDIDIAH, 16 Mar 2012 @ 5:29pm

Narcissistic Media Mogul
What music is popular? The stuff that can be heard on radio? The stuff that gets played on MTV? The stuff hat gets played on Pandora?

Or is it the stuff that is bought once and then forgotten about.

You will have to actually prove this whole "music popularity" thing. A glut of distractions and disruptive innovators are driving the price of content down across the board.

Plus once you've bought it you don't have pay for it again.
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JEDIDIAH, 16 Mar 2012 @ 5:36pm

Music for nothing
There are any number of bands who's members I could walk up to and declare "I have legally enjoyed your work for years without paying for it". That's just the way things are. That's how they have always been. People have been able to avoid paying for creative works since the dawn of broadcasting and recording.

If we're all used to "being moochers", it's because that's the nature of the beast.

Radio. TV. Pandora. Hulu.

Sorry Billy. Just do go all Lars Ulrich on me.
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bratwurzt (profile), 22 Mar 2012 @ 6:59am

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
Karl is using my words. He stole them and now I don't have words like 'majority' (it's 'all those people' now) and 'mainstream' (I use 'garbage' now). Damn you freetardin' Karl, explainin' my position better than I could! =)

And I said Internet, not piracy. Piracy happens on open seas, copyright infringement happens on the internet. Try to remember that.
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Androgynous Cowherd, 25 Mar 2012 @ 8:10pm

"Why do journalists and policy makers still blindly accept and repeat those same numbers?"

Because they're paid to. Journalists are paid their salaries by the big content company that owns whatever newspaper, radio station, or TV station they're at, and policy makers are paid large kickb^H^H^H^Hampaign contributions by big content companies.
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ltlw0lf (profile), 4 Jun 2012 @ 3:53pm

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:
Popcorn farmers!

The ethanol in my car says otherwise...but sure.
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ltlw0lf (profile), 4 Jun 2012 @ 4:01pm

Re: Re:
True they are not actually dying but they are taking normal job loss due to technological advancement and blaming it on piracy. For instance sony closed a CD manufacturing plant that made the sony brand blank dvds. Obviously those jobs are lost to piracy.

I'd never buy a Sony branded blank DVD. Too much Spyware. I prefer unbranded or memorex, since neither has shipped out spyware/malware and called it a feature.

I know, Sony didn't release their "DRM" malware on blank CDs, but considering their anti-consumer stance on just about every product they have sold, I prefer to use a company that doesn't knife me in the back at every opportunity. Being nice to the person who hands you your food pellets is far better in the long run than biting them every time.
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