Blackberry CEO Predicts Tablets Will Be Obsolete In Five Years
from the i'd-bet-more-on-him-being-obsolete-by-then dept
When Microsoft was preparing its Surface tablet for the market, CEO Steve Ballmer famously -- and ridiculously --- claimed that people didn't really want iPads, but that they craved the Surface much more instead. While you have to respect a CEO believing strongly in his own company's product, there's also something to be said for CEOs who can be realistic. It seems that Blackberry CEO Thorsten Heins is going the Ballmer route on tablets. In a move that appears to be an attempt to pre-defend the company's likely exit from the tablet market (which has not gone well for Blackberry), Heins argues not that Blackberry screwed up, but rather than the market for tablets is dying:“In five years I don’t think there’ll be a reason to have a tablet anymore,” Heins said in an interview yesterday at the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. “Maybe a big screen in your workspace, but not a tablet as such. Tablets themselves are not a good business model.”That's the sound of denial that you're hearing. It is actually okay for a CEO to admit that his company screwed up (especially when, as in this case, he can dump some of the blame on its strategy on the previous leadership). But to argue that the need for tablets is going away without a more detailed explanation? That just sounds like rationalizing.
To be clear, I could easily see a world in which a tablet does become obsolete, but it would likely be one where we see a rise of eye-displays like Google Glass or further advances beyond that -- and there's no indication that that is the direction that Heins is taking Blackberry. Instead, this just looks like him covering up for the failure of Blackberry to offer a compelling product by claiming that the whole space is going to go away.
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Filed Under: ipad, tablet
Companies: blackberry
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Yeah, right.
Do you program*? Try doing than in a 7 inch screen.
Also, good luck writing something longer than "Hello world" with the built-in software keyboard.
Tablets are great consumption devices, but they are terrible creation devices.
* or edit videos, or work with CAD, or...
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And by anything I mean play video games while also looking at pornography. Sometimes a spreadsheet while also looking at pornography. Also dual pornography while spread-sheeting about my pornography use on my phone. I can't even find my pants anymore. Where am I.
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This leaves us of coding on a small number of buttons or keys. Such systems have been built, such as the original Baudot Teletype system. The problem with these system is that the operator has to memorise a set of 'chords' on the keys. If you need the cheat sheet, then you may as well use an on screen keyboard.
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To some degree I believe Ninja is correct. Huge towers that contain DVD burners, Hard drives... will become a thing of the past for most users. As more and more people and even companies embrace the cloud and as solid state storage systems become more economical the need for a traditional PC will fade, even for creators.
Of course there will still be a need for traditional input devices (keyboards, ...) but the computer will appear to be little more than an over sized tablet, possibly on a removable stand. And yes I do program and have done it on a 10" screen. A little hard on the eyes, but it can be done.
So the reality is, I believe, Ninja is correct. The PC is dead, the tablet will grow to fill that spot. I see 15" or even 22" 'tablets' that you can slide into your briefcase and take anywhere.
What I don't see for the future is a PC with 10 cords hanging out the back either on, or stuffed under a desk. Nor do I see laptops (as we now know them) surviving. things like the Asus Transformer, though perhaps larger, will fill the space of the current laptops.
I already use a full size bluetooth keyboard to work on my tablet, I just need a larger screen so that it is a bit easier on my eyes. But it is great to sit and my desk and work, then pick up the tablet and head to the couch or recliner or beach to review or relax. Even without a keyboard I can still handle that support call from the beach (or wherever) probably 90% of the time. I can certainly handle the initial troubleshooting and diagnostics from there and prevent a trip to the office or data center.
Incidentally, this is also where Microsoft appears to be putting it's money with Windows 8 and Surface. They know the PC is dead. HP knows the PC is dead. Dell has seen the writing on the wall as well, and also appears to be transitioning to a different model more geared toward servers and tech appliances (printers, TVs, tablets...) than to laptops and desktops.
So, the largest suppliers of desktops have left or are steering away from the market. M$ has decided to dip it's toe into manufacturing tablets and geared it's latest OS toward them.
How can you possibly not see that the time of the PC is ending?
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In the long run, PCs will follow a similar trajectory to mainframes. Mainframes used to be the most common kind of computer, before PCs supplanted them. But mainframes are far from dead, even though most people don't directly use them.
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Much more likely even for a lot of 'power users' is that you will dock your tablet to a 'workstation' (a large screen and traditional keyboard).
Tablet sales up 142% PC sales down 14.7% See my reply to AC below for links to the reports.
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Even if tablet sales outnumber desktop sales, which they don't, it will take many many years for the amount of tablets in use to outnumber the amount of desktops in use. Factor in the amount of PCs still being bought (more than tablets), the many many years becomes many many more.
There is a greater chance that the desktop will fully migrate to TV displays rather than to portable devices. It's "desktop" for a reason.
Watch movie on a 42" display a few feet away or on a portable screen that you have to hold or perch somewhere.
Putting all the processing powers into the display... good idea that's happening.
Having all displays be small because portable... whats the point and purpose.
Tablets, laptops and desktops fulfill a different role. Expecting a tablet to fulfill the role of a desktop without turning that tablet into a desktop is impossible with today's tech.
You stated yourself that you have sorta turned your tablet into a desktop by adding a bluetooth keyboard. How soon before you plug it into a sized display that doesn't hurt your eyes ?
The pc isn't dead or dying. It's evolving.
wtf is a tablet after all ?
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They are being replaced at a fairly quick rate, even for some of the places I consult for. Many others are holding on to old XP machines rather than invest in new ones, because they don't think PC's are viable long term.
Look at the number of BYOD trend. Gartner says by 2017 1/2 of all businesses will require BYOD in the workplace. Those people aren't going to buy a PC to put on their desk at work. They are going to bring what they use at home and adapt it. This is especially true because a lot of employers already expect you to work from home at least part of the time (even if only after hours).
Sure there will always be niches for 'PCs' But what it was is dead. Look at Best Buy or any other tech shop. The size of the PC area has shrunk (Where I live by more than half). What took up all that space? Tablets! Retailers don't give space to things that don't sell and they take space away from things that aren't selling
Options for PCs are way down as are sales 14% decline in the first quarter of 2013. Meanwhile tablet sales for quarter 1 jumped 142% over one year ago
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/11/technology/pc-sales/index.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/t echnology-22381037
Tablets will grow to fill the PC roll (Large touch screen with embeded hardware and a regular keyboard (and perhaps a mouse). But the form factor known as a PC A box with a processor, hard drive, video card... is pretty much a dying breed. Sure there will be niches for them, but they will grow more expensive while tablet shrink in price and grow in abilities.
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In other words the future is medium to large screen laptops, that is from 15 inch screen upwards. The notebook failed because its keyboard was too camped for most people. A bx, often run headless, or using the TV will be a better choice for media centres and NAS uses.
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Implying a small portable screen is better than a large workspace.
Implying that "PC" is not an evolving format too.
Implying software doesn't evolve to use more cpu as new features are added.
Implying that a tablets size, is an advantage greater than the sum of advantages available in larger form factors.
Implying new control tech, better than touchscreens/mouse/keyboard will not be invented.
(6-8 years and you'll be lucky to get a tablet that competes with today's "PC")
Everything "Desktop" IS slowly migrating to the monitor. Tablets are hand held devices.
How people make the leap, that hand held devices on a small screen will replace desktop devices with large screens, is beyond me.
I will not throw out my 42" TV and replace it with a tablet form factor.
I also have no need for a TV with touch screen tech.
Desktop PC formats have a very similar functional design to TVs. (stationary workstations)
I don't care IF a tablet has more CPU/GPU power.... I will not replace my 42" TV for a 7" handheld.
The whole idea that tablets will take over computing is complete bullshit speculation, based on false equivalences that disregard the inevitable evolution of other products. Factor in the reality and yes, handheld devices will grow but the need for large workstations/media-Stations will still be there and if anything, there will probably be a full PC in every TV.
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I am implying nothing, I am telling you where things are headed, all one needs to do is look around. The PC format hasn't evolved in what 20 - 30 years? A box connected to input and output devices that sits on or under your desk and has a hard drive, cd-rom, dvd-rom, floppy...
Microsoft making a Touch based OS and getting into tablet manufacturing; HP getting out of the PC business; Dell realigning its focus more toward Servers and tech other than PCs or Laptops; Most software moving to a SaaS model.
I am also basing my opinion on what is seen in retail.
PC's won't be extinct, but they will be on life support. There will be niche markets, much like there are for MainFrames. But there will not be a PC on every desk in every office and there certainly will not be a workstation setup in every home.
Most people will have a tablet (or some modified laptop format) that they can take anywhere and will dock to a large monitor and input devices when they need to.
I can do that now with my phone. Young people that have grown up with smartphones and tablets don't use PC's. All of my nieces and nephews really don't like to use PCs. They much prefer tablets, phones.... That is where the market is headed.
It makes perfect since, more mobility....
Grandma wouldn't get rid of her console TV or 8 track tape player either. Funny, you can't buy 8 Tracks or console TVs anymore. Just because you won't get rid of yours doesn't mean the rest of the world won't move on.
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In the future I think we'll see some amazing things happening with portable devices, whether they are called tablets or smart phones. Imagine something that looks like a smallish tablet (5-7"), but with little or no bezel so it is about the size of some phones. It would have 24 hour plus battery life and be able to recharge wirelessly. Add the ability to prop it up and have it project a large high-definition laser-driven display on any reasonably light/smooth surface from behind while projecting a keyboard on any flat surface in front. At the same time, it would monitor either on-surface or in-the-air gestures. It would be a pretty powerful computer in its own right, but linked with cloud resources, it would have amazing "back end" resources.
While in the pocket, it could link to and provide powerful extensions to things like Google glasses, interface with your car electronics (including sound system, of course), or even simple stuff like remembering where you parked or warning you about a weather alert.
At home it could link to your TV and play high def videos or just use the screen as a monitor if you wanted to get some productive stuff done without having to sit at a desk.
Of course, it would have all the standard tablet technologies which are finding some surprising uses: GPS, magnetometer, electronic gyro, wi-fi and/or cellular connectivity, bluetooth, etc.
The cool thing is that all these technologies exist now, but are still being refined and better integrated. I suspect the main reason we haven't seen more of this already is because many of the inventions are buried in the IP swamp, but that's a different story.
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Also, once they fix their motion detection so they can easily create a virtual keyboard on any flat surface..
They kinda have projected keyboards like that now, but they have low keystroke limits and suck too much power..
Blackberry CEO isn't taking into consideration that technology has met it's legal match in our day and progress is grinding to a standstill though.
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The Ford of our day
What this did was create a middle class in Michigan, increase productivity and loyalty in Ford, and dropped the cost of cars from $800 to $400.
The reason I tell this story is simple. Look at what Thorsten Heins is proposing. He is so adamant on just Blackberry products that he's forgotten how to compete and is leaving it. This is essentially the lesson of the Model T. You haven't learned how to innovate. You haven't learned how to produce better goods. No, you're not interested in what your workers may think are good products. You've just put yourself out to pasture.
Here's hoping that Blackberry can come back from this but I'm not all that hopeful since they have been this way for quite some time.
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I see a future of Padfone-like devices where your phone, tablet and computer are all one device and the only real difference on how you use them are their accessories.
Sure we've done everything we can to make our tablets into laptops with keyboards and mice, but we still have that tablet option when we want it.
I have no experience with Google Glass other than a few comments or videos I've seen. I'm sure it's going to be big but right now it doesn't look like it replaces any device functionality, only adds to.
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Ubuntu
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As we know them, yes
So your tablet-like device will just send/receive information to/from your mobile computing device for processing/display.
All of the internet accessing or NAS accessing and computations will be done on your mobile computing device, such as a smartphone.
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Screens Everwhere; powered by your device
I have to admit the idea is compelling; and does seem to far fetched to me.
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Has anyone noticed Microsoft's commercials for Surface?
I mean, COMPLETELY. There is nothing in them at all about the utility of these devices for computing tasks, or their networking capabilities, or their security, or really, anything else.
If the intention was to make their commercials as content-free as possible, they succeeded brilliantly.
Now...what does this tell us about the product?
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Re: Has anyone noticed Microsoft's commercials for Surface?
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But I think there's still plenty of idiots that'll be willing to spend a few hundred bucks on Apple iPads and similar ones from others.
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Now...the Android ads are meant to make people believe the product is cool and just as viable as any other competitor on the market...but the contentlessness of those commercials are likened to making the product look cool (mind you they are) like cigarette mascots (forgive the analogy please...it's only an example). It's symbolic character driven rather than demonstration driven....you get to test the Android device on your own.
Now Apple used a marketing strategy of actually demonstrating to the public how to swipe, pinch...etc...on their screens in the ad...99% of the people that bought an iOS device that were new to Apple as customers already knew how to work their device out of the box....all because of the ad that showed a lack of content.
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Nintendo DS is still pretty cool.
Ribbon controllers are still awesome on synths.
So the underlying tech does have amazing applications.
Using a ribbon controller for controlling a mouse is terrible use of that tech. Using a touchscreen without a stylus, to control a "desktop wannabe OS" is terrible use of that tech.
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Now as for Steve Ballmer's comment...if you're going to say your new tablet can run Windows 8....you can't possibly claim people would want it. The only reason Windows 8 exists is for "easier" integration with your Windows RT device....and XBox360...
But alas I am a Luddite and don't adopt early on.
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IPAD for example, is just locked down hardware to sell apps.
The screen size is too small.
The control interface is on screen and limits function.
Adaptability and expandability is severely limited.
People who thought they had a new age desktop replacement are realizing that it is nowhere close to that case.
Tablets are good for what they are. Let's not jump on the bandwagon of misunderstanding, of what we are told they are by marketing hype.
If you use an IPAD as your primary internet interface... I pity you.
Really, you are missing out in so many ways. Same applies to a far lesser extent (by only affecting control), to people who use their laptop's touchpad rather than a mouse. I pity you too.
A computer is a tool, not a fashion accessory or an ornament. So as such, the abilities of the tool, as a tool, should be of primary concern.
Finally... NAS systems and easy to use, cheap media centers etc... will also hit tablets hard. Along with phones being the growing choice for highly portable computing.
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You all missed the underlying implication
Why?
Because mobile devices will become so powerful that they will be able to do anything that these other devices can do AND be mobile as well.
Don't believe it?
Imagine taking your smartphone and plugging it into a dock that supports large monitors, keyboard, mouse, webcam, etc.
Can't really do it today very well, but in 5 years?
Smartphones, smart devices, will be vastly more powerful and capable of running anything that today's most powerful computers can do. Plus, have the advantage of enabling you to take it with you anywhere.
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Re: You all missed the underlying implication
Also implying that new TVs, NAS etc... wont have upgrades in the mean time. Everything else stays the same while phones get "smarter" ?
Sorry to burst your bubble here but phones are now the device that plugs into everything else. Expecting that to just switch around considering the HUGE disadvantages the phone has, is really a wild jump from reality.
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Re: Re: You all missed the underlying implication
I'd put money on this prediction being inaccurate on the long side of the time equation. Its going to be true sooner than 5 years.
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Desktops are the major docking stations
I agree that phones will evolve and become more powerful over time. (As cpu/gpu die sizes shrink and TDP gets lower so chips can run at 5watts etc...)
That is sure to happen.
My prediction in that area is that intel will release a new chip with a ridiculously low TDP, so... x86 architecture will become popular on phones.
My prediction is pretty far fetched, to want it to happen in 5years.
Considering that high end "smartphones" are comparable to a Pentium 3 cpu with a gpu.
Top of the line i7cpu is 120 times faster.
Every other piece of tech also has to shrink to fit the phone, not just transistors on a die.
In 5 years your phone still wont be able to beat my desktop of today. That's a very very high probability even if Moore's law applied to every bit of tech in the phone.
Everything else in competition will evolve too.
Phones becoming the central hub in 5 years.... sounds like crazy talk.
Phones becoming the central hub in 20 years.... sounds really far fetched.
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Re: Re: Re: You all missed the underlying implication
More powerful hardware eats more power (generally speaking), and current smartphones are already stretching it in that regard. I mean, I used to have a phone that only needed to be charged once a week. My smartphone needs to be charged once a day.
My point is that unless battery technology improves substantially in the next 5 years, manufacturers will continue to opt for - shall we say - "sufficient" hardware specs instead of top-of-the-line ones (ARM instead of a full blown Core i7, for example) for the sake of better battery life, I think.
(Yes, yes, ARM could deploy more power efficient chips, but power efficiency will always hurt CPU power. It's one of those tradeoffs you have to live with, unless some technological shift happens)
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Having all appliances designed around docking one device is really not that smart. Protocols that enable data transfer between devices and control being granted by protocol is a far better solution.
eg...
Hence the ""protocol"" of transmission of sound data via bluetooth,IEEE 802.11 or even a minijack is a far better solution than making every set of speakers have a dock for a phone.
Sames goes for your TV etc... A tv with USB/HDMI/Scart/wireless protocols, is a far better solution than it having a docking station for a phone.
If you imply that a master docking station, to control all these other devices via their protocols, is going to be determined by a phone, I have to disagree.
Why would you want to ?
It's a phone. Its primary function is to be a portable communications device. Or maybe it should be docked permanently and you get another phone to carry about.
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Re: You all missed the underlying implication
I agree that phones will hit tablet sales hard, because ultra portable computing is more suited to something that can fit in your pocket.
Still... phones taking over the processing of everything from TV's to desktops is way out there as a possible evolution, considering the other technologies that exist and are developing at the same time.
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Re: You all missed the underlying implication
I set my phone down and my two 20" monitors come to life. I type on my keyboard and it just works. No "plugs" necessary - except *maybe* for power.
-CF
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Re: Re: You all missed the underlying implication
What is the point of the phone tho ?
http://www.sony.co.uk/product/vaio-l-series/svl2413z1e
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Alternatives
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Blackberry playbook was just crap
When your devices OS can't even get the spec right for the language you chose to use, how on earth is anyone supposed to make anything for your device? That combined with the fact that it was slower than mud, and you have another happy paperweight courtesy of Blackberry.
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Yes, the large flat screen, physical keyboardless computer will be going away. But it is more likely it will be replaced by smaller slimmer screens with more functionality in some places, less in others. Look at the e-readers. The e-reader as it was 2 years ago will be gone in two or three more. They will be replaced by more tablet-like devices, with more functionality than the readers of today, but less than the tablets of tomorrow.
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This is very simple, and a LOT of people are wrong
1) Making smaller parts are ALWAYS going to be more expensive than larger parts. Therefore, there's always going to be a market for people who want cheap without sacrificing (as much) speed. Therefore, the desktop sticks around.
2) Tablets and laptops have a VERY blurry line. That line might get blurrier, but people want better inputs than a tablet offers, so there'll still be a demand for laptops. Are there going to be a LOT of hybrids? Sure. But those will be even pricier.
3) Real PCs are ALWAYS going to be needed for gaming. Maybe they'll look different (think: Steambox), but that's not changing. Too many people want to play things more complex than Angry Birds. And no, the fact that PCs from 5 years ago are the same speed as phones now doesn't prove anything. Because in 5 years, phones might be as powerful as PCs now, but PCs will still blow them out of the water.
So in conclusion, there's VERY different markets for PC-type devices, so the market will continue to provide for those different demands.
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I'll leave this here
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Tablets need to do the following if they want to capture the laptop playing field.
- Act independently from cumbersome and restrictive propriety software like iTunes.
- Allow for better file and application integration with the Host PC or Network
- Allow for Third party installations or direct installations with out an App store.
- Allow full access to the local file system and operating system. Let IT and Developers customize or make their own flavour of the OS.
- Support for serious business tools (Oracle, MS SQL, SAP, eDOCS, Crystal Reports)
- Integrated security with Microsoft ADS networks
- Better direct connection methods to PC's in business and 1 common connection type. USB should be the norm.
- BETTER SECURITY! believe it or not, but many businesses and government agencies can not use tablets for their lesser security.
- Allow for direct connection of a larger range of peripheral components (printers, scanners, portable drives, security card scanners etc) with out having to purchase specific dongles or converters (this goes back to 1 type of connector).
Android and Blackberry are making great strides in these areas to bring to the public a real "Business" model tablet, but Apple has completely stopped and almost refuses to help businesses out in these areas. At this point, the next business that addresses in their tablets these topics will take the lead in the next wave of sales.
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He's not in denile, just in the wrong space
They had all the things that Business needs (Control over devices, rich administrative tools, corporate licensing, etc)
When apple showed up, executives essentially said 'screw you local IT people, I want an iPhone whether the company supports it or not' That put a huge push towards the already established thrust of BYOD. Couple of years later corporations were ditching BlackBerries because service providers like Verizon were offering enterprise administration tools that IT departments crave - with a focus on Android devices.
Apple has little patience for "enterprise" devices. The iPad got no bulk quantity breaks in price. iPads have shown up in the enterprise ONLY because consumers love them. He's right...they don't make a lot of business sense. But they are great for what they do - which is entertain.
So in the corporate environment, the tablet will not become the device of choice. He is right about that. But all he knows is the business space. He is not concerned about the consumer space anymore than Apple is concerned about the business space.
Tablets are here to stay. In the consumer market they will continue to destroy the laptop and desktop market. But in a business setting, they will relegated as a "nice-to-have" peripheral (except in some specialized settings) and the Desktop/Laptop/Large Screen will continue to be the computing device of choice - at least as long as touch-typing on a tactile keyboard is the most effective way of entering data in large spreadsheets.
-CF
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Tablets still in demand
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Technology
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