from the could-be-a-stretch dept
History often repeats itself in the tech world and Joel Spolsky is
seeing history repeating itself in the web application space. Using the example of Lotus in the office software space, he argues that the company lost relevance to Microsoft because it (wrongly) focused on optimizing
performance and features for a platform (DOS) that was quickly becoming obsolete. In the meantime, Microsoft and Apple built really cool features for their office
software and waited for platform capabilities to catch up (inevitably)
due to Moore's Law. He then equates Google to the latter-day Lotus, painting a scenario where Google
smugly laughs off a bloated but feature-rich (imaginary) NewSDK from a bratty startup, only to then
get disrupted by this SDK when browser capabilities
improve. Of course, part of the analogy breaks down because Microsoft was hardly a bratty startup when it succeeded where Lotus failed.
The prediction was serious enough to elicit a response from a Googler
who disagrees with this association. The analogy is very interesting, and in many ways, we are indeed
seeing a similar evolutionary path in web applications. Joel
identified three platform characteristics, namely, a portable
programming language, high interactivity and UI standards as important
phases in the desktop world, that will eventually happen in the web
world. And, he suggests, whoever can gain traction doing all three will have as much
impact as Microsoft Windows back in the desktop era. This might be the
case, but the more interesting question is whether it is even possible
to achieve dominance from scratch just by doing all three?
On the web
today, we are not seeing a lack of effort towards language portability
(open-source Javascript libraries like Prototype, JQuery or Dojo) high interactivity (Scriptaculous, Yahoo/Google Developers API, Google Web Toolkit) and UI standards (all the CSS frameworks and Yahoo UI Best Practices). There are even efforts that are
heading towards a "cut-and-paste" functionality on the web, with
efforts like Microformats, the Semantic Web, GData API and even
XML standard markups in different domains. There are also companies (Backbase, Nexaweb, Bindows, Tibco General Interface, Bindows) aspiring to be Joel's NewSDK by providing comprehensive tools for AJAX development. In some regards, you can
argue that through Flash, Adobe has achieved all three in some
important domains like video streaming, video conferencing and
animations on the web, and with Flex and AIR, they are extending their
ambitions to more general domains. The reigning giants are also not
without ambitions in this area, with efforts like Microsoft's
Silverlight, and Google hiring Mozilla developers and developing
client-side technologies like Google Gears. As you can see, many players, ranging from big companies to small startups to open-source projects, are already pretty active in moving web applications along its maturation path, but still no one is as dominant on the web as Microsoft was on the desktop.
Perhaps one needs to remember that Microsoft became dominant on the desktop through shrewd business tactics, not by being the OS that developers love best. BeOS, Next, Apple and Linux have all tried to challenge Microsoft directly on the desktop by providing more compelling features but Microsoft remains undefeated. Perhaps having massive distribution (whatever way you get it) is an important factor? There are a handful of companies who have varying degrees of massive distribution on the web; Google (through search), Adobe (through Flash), Yahoo (through the portal), Firefox/Mozilla (through the browser), Apple (through iTunes/iPod/digital entertainment), Facebook/MySpace (through social networking) and not the least, Microsoft (through Windows/IE, and not to forget, the inventor of Asynchronous Javascript, the AJ in AJAX). Would these companies be in a better position to be Joel's NewSDK?
Yes, Joel is right in that history is indeed repeating itself
in many ways, but it seems unlikely that anyone (especially Google) will be
blindsided by a bratty upstart. If so, that startup
will be making history, not repeating it.
Filed Under: history repeating itself, joel spolsky
Companies: google, lotus