GTA5: A Living World Eyeing A Decade Of Rabid Play Instead Of Just A 'Game'

from the ongoing-trends dept

A little over five years ago, I wrote about the seeming emergence of a new trend in the video game space: living and evolving game worlds instead of single-serving "games". While MMOs and other online games certainly weren't new even then, what with World of Warcraft having a decade under its belt at that point, the post did focus on several game publishers beginning to make noises about focusing on these breathing ongoing experiences rather than selling shiny discs, or even digital downloads of one-and-done games. And if that trend became the norm, it really would change the industry. Development cycles for the release of games wouldn't so much be a thing compared with the ongoing and time-spanning development that would go into consistently creating new experiences within an existing game. For those interested in the gaming industry, or those concerned with how traditional development cycles and "crunch" have impacted design labor, this really could be something of an inflection point.

Five years later, this trend has only gotten more prevalent. There are many examples of living, breathing game worlds out there to choose from, but the example I will use is Grand Theft Auto 5, which has been an active hit for so long that it literally passed by a console generation. The game was originally released in 2013 as a single-player game, only to have its online component launch shortly after, putting it in the ongoing development cycle.

Grand Theft Auto V, in case you forget, was first released on the Xbox 360 and PS3 in September 2013. It didn’t arrive on the PS4 and Xbox One until 2014.

Let that wash over you for just a second. A single video game that was released before the PS4 and Xbox One even hit the shelves has remained both culturally relevant and commercially successful throughout those console’s entire lifetimes, and will now see an even longer shelf-life once it is released on the PS5 and Xbox Series X.

To give you an idea of just how long ago that was, the game was released with a trailer that spoke to America’s attempts to recover from its last financial meltdown, and there’s been time to have had another since. Other games on the best-selling list for September 2013 include Diablo III, Disney Infinity and Saints Row IV.

And, again, the game is still in active development, both on the online and first-person side of things. There will be an updated version of the game that comes out on the next generation of consoles, while the online community is still actively involved and playing in all of the new updates and releases Rockstar has continued to create.

The success of the game has far-reaching implications. Rockstar Games, with its own notorious reputation of putting its developers through so-called "crunch" periods, notably isn't suffering from a ton of stories of crunch when it comes to the developers of the ongoing GTA5 world. Which makes sense: the deadlines are more squishy than getting out a AAA single-player game. It also means potentially less individual games coming out, which may be a good or bad thing depending on your perspective. For reference, The PS2-era of consoles saw three GTA games get released, while the PS3 had 2 and the PS4's only GTA game was the port of GTA5.

All of that is because the development efforts are going into a lasting game with a ton of gaming participation, even seven-plus years after its release. If the gaming public is happy enough with that, then so be it. But it's going to change the industry as this trend continues.

Filed Under: evolving worlds, gta5, trends, video games, world building

Just As #DiaperDon Starts Trending, Trump Claims That Twitter Uses 'Fake' Trends, Calls For 'Termination' Of Section 230

from the for-national-security? dept

It's no secret that Donald Trump doesn't like Section 230. Wait. Actually, let's back up and try that again: it's no secret that Donald Trump doesn't like what he thinks Section 230 is about, which has little-to-no-resemblance to what Section 230 is actually about. However, over the long weekend, things took an even more ridiculous turn than usual. It started on Thanksgiving when the President was signing some legislation and taking some questions from the press. For unclear reasons, the setup where he had to sign things was with a very small desk affixed with the Presidential seal. While this desk has been used before for such things -- and Trump has even joked about the size of it, the framing of the shot -- the lack of people around him, the wide frame of the shot, the tread over carpet, and just... everything really made it look like the President was sitting at an elementary school desk.

The internet started to have some fun. Actually, lots of fun.

It was not long until #DiaperDonald started trending on Twitter.

And, then, it was not much longer beforel the Commander-in-Chief of the military, and the leader of the United Stated of America decided to throw a tantrum on Twitter and claim that Twitter made up its trending topics (it does not).

That's the supposed leader of the free world saying:

Twitter is sending out totally false "Trends" that have absolutely nothing to do with what is really trending in the world. They make it up, and only negative "stuff". Same thing will happen to Twitter as is happening to @FoxNews daytime. Also, big Conservative discrimination!

All of that is, of course, nonsense, but it was followed up just five minutes later with:

That's him saying:

For purposes of National Security, Section 230 must be immediately terminated!!!

The fact that this comes so close to the tweet whining about #DiaperDon trending suggests that this has literally nothing to do with "national security." If Trump has learned one thing while he's in office, it's that one way that the President can actually get stuff done (such as start trade wars) without the need to get Congress's approval is to claim "national security" to make it happen. But you can't just get rid of laws that way. That's not how any of this works. At all.

Also, um, if Section 230 was terminated, it wouldn't change the fact that Twitter might show trending topics that are critical of the President. Because that's protected by the 1st Amendment. You know... part of the Constitution that the President swore to protect and uphold when he was sworn into office?

Of course, if 230 were terminated, meaning that Twitter (and others) might face more annoying and costly lawsuits for the actions of its users, one thing it might be a lot more prone to do is to delete the account of troublemakers spewing conspiracy theories and nonsense on its platform. Such as the soon-to-be-leaving President Donald Trump.

Filed Under: diaper don, donald trump, intermediary liability, national security, section 230, temper tantrum, trending, trends
Companies: twitter

Cord Cutting Is Very Real, And 25% Of Americans Won't Subscribe To Traditional Cable By Next Year

from the head-buried-firmly-in-the-sand dept

For years the traditional cable and broadcast industry has gone to great lengths to deny that cord cutting (getting rid of traditional cable TV) is real. First, we were told repeatedly that the phenomenon wasn't happening at all. Next, the industry acknowledged that sure -- a handful of people were ditching cable, but it didn't matter because the people doing so were losers living in their mom's basement. Then, we were told that cord cutting was real, but was only a minor phenomenon that would go away once Millennials started procreating.

Of course none of these talking points were true, but they helped cement a common belief among older cable and broadcast executives that the transformative shift to streaming video could be easily solved by doubling down on bad ideas. More price increases, more advertisements stuffed into each minute, more hubris, and more denial. Blindness to justify the milking of a dying cash cow instead of adapting.

But given the numbers we've seen over the last year or two, even the cable and broadcast industry has had to scale back its "head firmly in the sand" approach to market evolution. Last month MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett, the telecom industry's top media quote machine, pointed out that 2016's 1.7% decline in traditional cable TV viewers was the biggest cord cutting acceleration on record. Kagan agreed, a recent report indicating that Pay TV providers lost around 1.9 million subscribers last year, the firm predicting a notable spike in the number of broadband-only homes:

"At the same time, American broadband-only homes grew much faster in 2016 — increasing by more than 2 million. Kagan estimated the U.S. had 15.4 million non-multichannel broadband homes at the end of last year, up from 13.3 million end of 2015. That suggest that 13% of the country’s occupied households make the decision not to take a traditional multichannel TV package."

Another new report by Convergence Research predicts that this broadband-only trend will only continue:

"US TV subscriber losses and cord cutter/never household additions saw a major increase in 2016 as compared to 2015: We estimate 2016 saw a decline of 2.05 million US TV subscribers, 2015 saw a decline of 1.16 million, and forecast a decline of 2.11 million TV subscribers for 2017...As of YE2016 we estimate 27.2 million US households (22.3% of HHs) did not have a traditional TV subscription with a Cable, Satellite, or Telco TV access provider, up from 24.2 million (20% of HHs) YE2015, and we forecast 30.3 million (24.6% of HHs) YE2017. 2015 saw 2.1 million, 2016 3 million, and we forecast 3.1 million 2017 cord cutter/never household additions.

The shorter version: by next year, one quarter of Americans will no longer subscribe to traditional cable. And that's only going to accelerate as cheaper, better, streaming alternatives emerge.

In a functioning, healthy market, these companies would see the writing on the wall and adapt, benefiting users. And to be fair, some have tried (Dish's Sling TV, AT&T's DirecTV Now). But with the cable industry's growing monopoly over broadband, a return to rubber-stamp regulation, and the looming death of net neutrality, many of these companies correctly understand they won't have to seriously compete anytime soon. They can simply impose unnecessary usage caps and overage fees on uncompetitive broadband markets, then use zero rating to give their own services a leg up -- while penalizing competitors.

Unfortunately for them, even that likely won't "solve" the tectonic evolution that's only just starting to take place. Ultimately, denial-prone cable and broadcast executives will be left with just one, unthinkable option: actually competing on cable TV price, flexibility and quality.

Filed Under: cable, cord cutting, internet, trends, tv

Techdirt Reading List: The Inevitable: Understanding The 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future

from the the-future-is-coming-fast dept

We're back again with another in our weekly reading list posts of books we think our community will find interesting and thought provoking. Once again, buying the book via the Amazon links in this story also helps support Techdirt.

Kevin Kelly, whose bio always notes that he "helped launch Wired Magazine," is one of those people who always makes you think. I enjoy his writing and insights into technology more than just about anyone else. So it's exciting to see his new book out, entitled The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future. This isn't a book about making specific predictions about this or that technology, but rather an attempt to look at specific larger trends that Kelly believes are "inevitable." From there, you can start to think about what it would mean for technology, life, work and much, much more.

For anyone interested in the things we talk about here: the intersection of technology, economics, business and policy, I'd put this one on the must read list. Sometimes when you're deep in the weeds of various technologies, it's difficult to separate out specific implementations (successful or not) from the larger overall trends. But, in the long run, it's the trends that are most important. You may not agree with all of Kelly's thoughts on what trends are inevitable, but they will (inevitably!) force you to think about where we're going. As always, Kelly is very, very optimistic about these things, which is something I generally agree with, but even if you're pessimistic about the future, I still think this is a worthwhile book (in fact, I can't wait until one of the prominent "tech skeptics" tries to dismantle each of the inevitable trends in this book, as I'm sure that will be a fun read as well).

Filed Under: innovation, kevin kelly, reading list, techdirt reading list, trends

Video Game Trend: The Decline Of The 'Game' And The Emergence Of The 'Living Game World'

from the a-brand-new-world dept

Normally, reading a report on an earnings forecast by a video game company is no more interesting than it would be if the company made, say, toilet bowl brushes. But every so often, you can catch a glimpse of where a company thinks the gaming industry is going and how gaming might evolve next. One such report on Activision's earnings has some interesting tidbits to go along with the company's acknowledgement of the known trends in digital distribution.

The report starts off with Activision reporting that its overall sales strategy is focused on shifting as much effort to digital/internet sales as possible. This is no surprise of course, as the trend for gaming to shift away from shiny discs and towards downloads has been in place for a while now. Still, hearing Activision report that three-fourths of its revenue now comes from sales over the internet is jarring. But the really interesting stuff comes when Activision talks about how the internet has made it possible for a gaming company to go beyond making "games" and instead creating living, evolving game worlds for players to immerse themselves in.

Activision also said two of its newest games -- the space-age shooting game Destiny, and the digital card game Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft -- have accumulated more than 50 million registered users and are now responsible for more than $1 billion sales. Hearthstone, for tablets and smartphones, is offered for free to download, and makes its money by charging for upgrades and additional items over time. Destiny is also designed to get players spending money over the next ten years of its development by offering additional storylines and other items. Activision says Destiny's player base clocks around 3 hours of playtime a day.

The 11-year old World of Warcraft game is one of Activision's best known and longest-running active games. That has helped executives see the value in creating titles of all types that operate less as products burned onto physical discs and played over a short time to living titles, regularly expanded and updated over time. So far, it's paying off. Activision said a record 76 percent, or $538 million, of its total revenue came from sales over the Internet of full-game downloads and in-game adds-ons.

MMOs are not new. As the quote above notes, WoW is over a decade old. That said, gamemakers might have waited until recently to decide that evolving, online gaming worlds are going to be the new norm in gaming. The way Activision is talking about this sounds like the idea of making "games" is going to take a backseat to making evolving, always-running, decades-spanning game worlds in which the sales strategy will be an ongoing participation by gamers, rather than simply having them plunk down $40 at a retailer to take their shiny disk home and pop it into a console.

Activision isn't alone in this line of thinking.

This shift, though more dramatic with Activision, follows an industry trend with other large game makers, like Electronic Arts and Take-Two Interactive, which have both seen consistent boosts to sales over the Internet in recent quarters. These companies are beginning to see success in the games industry as less a matter of selling the most units and more a question of how to get gamers to play a single game for longer -- and spending real money in the virtual worlds as well.

Ten years ago, the method for measuring the play time in gaming was measured in hours. Ten hours was a short game, twenty was about average, and a forty-hour game was massive. Now game developers are looking to measure game time in years, not hours. It's a massive shift in business models.

This isn't to say that the more traditional "game" is immediately going away, of course. Activision is still going to pump out Call of Duty games, and is even reportedly looking to revive the Guitar Hero brand. But this sort of reminds me of how it felt at the start of the adventure game decline fifteen or so years back. They didn't die off immediately, or at all, really. Instead, the industry just slowly stopped making as many of them, bit by bit, until the point-and-click adventure game became the niche market it is today. Will old-fashioned "games" follow the same trajectory? The money trend seems to indicate it might.

Filed Under: games, living worlds, trends, video games

Yes, There Are Many, Many, Many, Many Legal Uses Of BitTorrent

from the too-legit-to-quit dept

When the VCR first came on the market, nearly 100% of the TV and movie content it was used for was "unauthorized," because the big studios refused to offer films. Of course, thankfully, the Supreme Court eventually made it clear that just because it was "unauthorized," it didn't mean that taping TV for later watching was "infringing." But, if the metric you used to judge whether or not a new technology is a "pirate technology" is what percentage of its use was "unauthorized," you get a very skewed picture. Early on, all sorts of new and innovative technologies are mostly used for unauthorized copies... until the industry catches up. However, people don't often deal with trends very well, and they assume, quite incorrectly, that if a technology is initially used in an unauthorized manner, it must be a "piracy tool" and no amount of discussing how trends and adaptation works will convince them otherwise. Lately, there has been plenty of talk about BitTorrent -- with a few cases here and there pointing out that a high percentage (usually over 90% of works are infringing). The argument being made is that there is little redeeming value with BitTorrent since it's almost exclusively used for infringement.

Of course, over time, things change. Content creators begin to embrace the new, realize that it might not be evil, and suddenly we see more and more interesting case studies. And that seems to be happening with BitTorrent. The recent MusicMetric analysis of BitTorrent downloads for the first six months of 2012 found that 31% of downloads were for authorized files. Now, you can argue that this is still less than half of all files -- but it's a big step up from the standard claims that somewhere between 1% and 10% were authorized. It seems quite likely that the trend is moving in the right direction.

In an effort to highlight just how much authorized content is shared using BitTorrent, Bittorrent Inc. put together a neat graphic representation of just one day's authorized downloads, creating a massive page that includes a single dot for every authorized download. We've put a snapshot of just a small portion of that image below this post... but that's really only a fragment. If you go to the full page, there's an awful lot of scrolling involved. And that's because it's showing 689,955 authorized downloads. In a single day. Not bad.

In case you're wondering who's actually offering up music that's getting downloaded like this, Eliot van Buskirk tracked down the top ten authorized music acts on BitTorrent, which turns up a few surprises.

1. Death Grips: 34,151,432
2. Counting Crows: 26,950,427
3. Billy Van: 18,702,053
4. Gods Robot: 12,172,672
5. Way Too Sick: 9,974,321
6. Paz: 6,485,001
7. Bray: 5,878,492
8. Pretty Lights: 5,005,061
9. DJ Shadow: 4,349,048
10. Chester French: 523,356

As Eliot notes, that number one legal download, Death Grips, is signed to a major label deal on Epic (part of Sony Music). The Counting Crows are obviously a big name as well, and we wrote about their decision to use BitTorrent. They're ex-big label, but now independent. Also, DJ Shadow and Chester French were both associated with Universal sub-labels, though I do not know if either are still "signed." Either way, it's interesting to see that it's a mix of artists, including some from major labels and some others. It certainly looks like, perhaps, the idea that BitTorrent is just for infringement may have to be officially considered debunked.

Filed Under: authorized uses, bittorent, trends
Companies: bittorrent

DailyDirt: A Logo With Any Other Name..?

from the urls-we-dig-up dept

Some companies spend a lot of effort tweaking their logo and making sure their brand image stays shiny and new. But how much does it really matter? There are some truly iconic corporate logos, but it's really the businesses behind the logos that create the image of the company. Not the other way around. Or maybe a nice reliable-looking logo really does inspire a company and its employees to bleed purple or something....

• Would you even notice if the name and logo didn't match? A project by Tommaso Guerra mixes up a few recognizable logos and brands; Guerra isn't the first to do this and he won't be the last... [url]
• A hundred web brands and their logos make a pretty rainbow. Except the main colors are either blue or red -- with just a little green, yellow, orange, purple and gray. [url]
• LogoLounge has published its 10th annual logo trends report, pointing out a few common logo elements that some designers are (over-)using. With the potato chip logo, perhaps once you pop, you can't stop. [url]
• To discover more interesting advertising-related content, check out what's floating around on StumbleUpon. [url]  

By the way, StumbleUpon can recommend some good Techdirt articles, too.

Filed Under: advertising, brand, colors, image, logo, logolounge, trends

The Inevitability Of Wikileaks

from the if-you-strike-me-down... dept

Yet another excellent post over at the Economist highlighting the key mistake that those arguing against Wikileaks seem to be making: it's the idea that these kinds of things can be stopped. It's this idea that if Julian Assange is killed or if Wikileaks loses its domain or even if people are brought to trial over this, that somehow, somewhere, such data leaks won't happen any more. As the Economist notes:

Jailing Thomas Edison in 1890 would not have darkened the night.

This is exactly the point I was trying to make a couple months ago, in pointing out the impossibility of stopping truly distributed systems through conventional means (whether the distributed systems are doing good or bad things), and how little the people in power recognize this.

Yet the debate over WikiLeaks has proceeded as if the matter might conclude with the eradication of these kinds of data dumps--as if this is a temporary glitch in the system that can be fixed; as if this is a nuisance that can be made to go away with the application of sufficient government gusto. But I don't think the matter can end this way. Just as technology has made it easier for governments and corporations to snoop ever more invasively into the private lives of individuals, it has also made it easier for individuals, working alone or together, to root through and make off with the secret files of governments and corporations. WikiLeaks is simply an early manifestation of what I predict will be a more-or-less permanent feature of contemporary life, and a more-or-less permanent constraint on strategies of secret-keeping.

This is about dealing with reality, but so many of those in charge are working from the wrong playbook -- the one that doesn't realize that this is the new reality.

The basic question is not whether we think Julian Assange is a terrorist or a hero. The basic question certainly is not whether we think exposing the chatter of the diplomatic corps helps or hinders their efforts, and whether this is a good or bad thing. To continue to focus on these questions is to miss the forest for the texture of the bark on a single elm. If we take the inevitability of future large leaks for granted, then I think the debate must eventually centre on the things that will determine the supply of leakers and leaks. Some of us wish to encourage in individuals the sense of justice which would embolden them to challenge the institutions that control our fate by bringing their secrets to light. Some of us wish to encourage in individuals ever greater fealty and submission to corporations and the state in order to protect the privileges and prerogatives of the powerful, lest their erosion threaten what David Brooks calls "the fragile community"--our current, comfortable dispensation.

Again, this is why I have pointed out the similarities between the whole Wikileaks situation and the entertainment industry's response to file sharing. In the latter, it was never about whether or not file sharing was good or bad, moral or immoral, or even (really) whether or not it helps or hinders the creative lives of certain individuals or companies. What happened with file sharing was an inevitability, and the focus from the beginning should have been about figuring out "what do we do now, knowing this reality."

For years, I've said that one of the reasons I focused so much on the music industry was that I hoped other arenas that faced similar questions would learn from the mistakes of that one industry. And, yet, we see time and time again that this almost never happens. We've seen the movie industry, the software industry, the video game industry, the publishing industry and more follow the same path making the same mistakes. And now we're seeing the US government do it too -- and this is a case where the stakes may be much, much bigger.

Filed Under: technology, trends, wikileaks
Companies: wikileaks