IBM Helps Florida Predict Just How Delinquent Your Child's Going To Be
from the your-future-self-appears-to-be-a-trouble-maker dept
We've covered several different instances where the country has been taking baby steps toward the kind of precognitive crime prevention featured in the movie Minority Report -- sans naked gibbering women floating in bathtubs. The most recent effort was courtesy of the Homeland Security Department, who is busily developing a body language analysis prediction system dubbed "Future Attribute Screening Technologies" (FAST) -- which aims to detect "shifty" people who may be getting ready to commit a crime of some sort (or just drank way too much coffee).
More common approaches simply involve software that analyzes a database of offenders and cherry picks out the most likely future offenders (very popular in the UK), or analyzes crime patterns to predict future criminal trends. Along those lines, it looks like the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice has decided to start using IBM predictive analytics software (via Gizmodo) to help them determine which of the 85,000 kids who enter their system each year poses the biggest future threat. IBM has this to say about the new system -- which was an upgrade from Excel:
"Predictive analytics gives government organizations worldwide a highly-sophisticated and intelligent source to create safer communities by identifying, predicting, responding to and preventing criminal activities. It gives the criminal justice system the ability to draw upon the wealth of data available to detect patterns, make reliable projections and then take the appropriate action in real time to combat crime and protect citizens."Of course many of these patterns simply become evident when people bother to pay attention and use their intellect, and these tools are often just an extension of that. When prediction technology is used, the technology will only be as good as the people using it (in this case to choose rehabilitation paths for kids). But you still have to wonder how accurate these kinds of systems are and how independently verifiable the evidence will be. Can kids who feel they were unfairly, preemptively declared to be bad asses in 2014 see the "reliable" source code?
Thank you for reading this Techdirt post. With so many things competing for everyone’s attention these days, we really appreciate you giving us your time. We work hard every day to put quality content out there for our community.
Techdirt is one of the few remaining truly independent media outlets. We do not have a giant corporation behind us, and we rely heavily on our community to support us, in an age when advertisers are increasingly uninterested in sponsoring small, independent sites — especially a site like ours that is unwilling to pull punches in its reporting and analysis.
While other websites have resorted to paywalls, registration requirements, and increasingly annoying/intrusive advertising, we have always kept Techdirt open and available to anyone. But in order to continue doing so, we need your support. We offer a variety of ways for our readers to support us, from direct donations to special subscriptions and cool merchandise — and every little bit helps. Thank you.
–The Techdirt Team
Reader Comments
Subscribe: RSS
View by: Time | Thread
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
The unstated assumption is that if you can mitigate the potential for criminal behavior in the formative years, the behavior will not persist in adulthood.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Which was the best part of the movie
"IBM has this to say about the new system -- which was an upgrade from Excel:"
If that's true, it's both hilarious and depressing.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Nothing like guilty until proven innocent..
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Nothing like guilty until proven innocent..
;)
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re: Nothing like guilty until proven innocent..
They pass contradicting laws such that one can not avoid breaking at least one ... and then they predict a certain number of people will get caught ... followed closely by quotas.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
Truly innocent people have nothing to be nervous about.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re:
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re:
I'd say that's a pretty fair reason to be nervous! ;)
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re:
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Rehabilitation vs. Punishment
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Rehabilitation vs. Punishment
Even in most credible science Fiction writers recognized the ability to predict individuals is a pipe dream. The ability to predict large populations with a large amount of variation in probability is tough enough for most to accept.
How much public funds are being bled from this government institution's budget? What are the estimated cost benefits from this new system? How many individuals do they estimate they will keep out of jail or from harming others?
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
1. The sales folks claimed 100% accuracy and precision
2. The Gub't officials decided it would be swept under the rug or taken care of by the Department of Someone Else's Problem.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
How about the converse?
Or maybe use it to predict which kids will become super heros rather than super villains!
Interestingly, the Press Release mentions that $12B has been spent by IBM on building analytics, but it doesn't mention how much money IBM will be making from this publicly funded project.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: How about the converse?
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: How about the converse?
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
*I don't know what that means, but they said it on Fox News.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Re:
Of course, parents raising their children unimpeded is not socialism, but the opposite. I don't watch Fox News, but it would seem that what they accuse as being socialism more likely refers to health care "reform", regulatory "reform", bailouts, taxes, subsidies, etc. etc.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Of Course...
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re: Of Course...
*leans*
Were both idiots - lol.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Funny, but really
Predicting is a dangerous road to travel down. Anybody see Paycheck? We wanted to predict the future and ended up creating a new future and wiped ourselves out because we were afraid of what we could do to each other...
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
"You knew I would do this, and did nothing to deter me, so you're all guilty of aiding and abetting a criminal!"
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Re:
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Just like A.I.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
@9 - its about living ones own life, without fear
and what if IBM is wrong
whats that movie about thought crime where they arrest you if they see your thought of doing wrong, and how its been corrupted by some evil villain to maintain power?
.....
I can be good or evil
YOU cannot make a test how i will act in any situation cause you do not know if i will do either. YOU may see my past and have an educated guess. THAT'S THE BEST THIS IS.
IF then this is true then run it on me and see if i'm gonna be a terrorist if not then i should not have to be bound under any of anti privacy laws, and test me for pedophilia so i dont have to THINK OF THE CHILDREN , cause i dont go get bad porn. AND while were at it test me to see if i am apt to go and commit crimes at all, and if i do not fall that way then i shall repeat exact phrase i shrink once told me after i was getting a lack a sleep at a residence.
"Don't fucking waste my time your as sane as they come , it's the peopel around you that are nuts"
What's that tell you "ima fish"? that your mentality of making people live in fear is wrong? THAT people like you are really crazy nut jobs?
YES. YOU see i do not fear you, the cops , the feds, my gov't or anything. I will enjoy and live my life and thats something you can't do because your always worried about breaking laws instead of living life
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Adlib
self hypnosis at min and full hypnosis with trained person may aid in fooling anything like this.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
What Problem Is This Supposed To Solve?
[ link to this | view in chronology ]
Dunno about you, but my gut is full of...
Karl, while I understand where you were going, you totally misrepresented the purpose and intent of this technology. This isn't 'crime prediction software'. You can't hook this tool up to Google, and suddenly have an email pop out and say "Go to the corner of 12th st and Main. Wait three minutes, then arrest the teen with the red ball cap on. He's going to rob a liquor store tomorrow."
This is a predictive analysis system. Kinda like the ones that hospitals are starting to use to flag potential child abuse visitation patterns. The intent is to actually USE the hundreds of thousands of individual case histories to try and rationalize the present, and perhaps, just perhaps get a little better at helping kids in the future.
Does this tool have the potential to be abused? Sure. But in an environment where Corrections systems dollars are thin, isn't it in our best interest to use analytics to determine where to spend time and money? Otherwise, the situation remains unchanged: a bunch of overworked, underpaid civil servants poring over hard copy and relying on thier 'intuition' on who deserves the most help, and what help to give them.
Dunno about you, but my gut is full of . It's not the place that literally life and death decisions should be made... at least, not if you can help it.
[ link to this | view in chronology ]