Techdirt Podcast Episode 28: Is Car Ownership On The Way Out?
from the the-future-of-mobility dept
The explosive rise of Uber, ride-sharing programs, and other on-demand mobility services has led many to wonder if the whole concept of car ownership is on its way out, at least for city-dwellers. This week we're joined by Upshift founder Ezra Goldman, who recently wrote a manifesto for the future of mobility and helps us delve far beyond a surface analysis of transportation trends.
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Filed Under: ezra goldman, mobility, podcast, transportation
Companies: uber, upshift
Reader Comments
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Cars mabey, I want my truck.
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Re: Cars mabey, I want my truck.
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Once autonomous vehicles become practical, Uber will no doubt replace freelance drivers with their own fleet of driverless cars. Taxi services will no doubt do the same regardless of Uber.
There are exceptions of course. There will always be areas without the detailed 3D mapping or mobile bandwidth required for Google's fleet. A human driver may be sent based on your pickup and destination addresses.
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Hobbies
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Re: Hobbies
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Call me old fashioned but like my songs, games, and other media I own I like to own what I buy.
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Haven't you heard? It's "stealing" to do something for yourself that you could hire someone else to do for you.
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Did you listen to the podcast? We actually make it clear that Uber alone is not going to get rid of cars. We talk about a variety of *other* things that might get people to that point.
For example, if, from time to time, you need to pull a trailer, then what if you could just have a rental truck delivered to you at those times, rather than having to own one for all the times you don't need to pull a trailer?
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I hope so
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Re: I hope so
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I can assure you, there are lots of non-homeless people who don't own cars... At least a dozen. Or, y'know, millions.
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But, of course, if we're just fantasizing about future possibilities, I'd say that personal teleportation, a la Star Trek, would replace not only cars but even things like Uber.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: I hope so
Well personally I was thinking of Toronto, where I live. But go ahead and make all the assumptions you want. You're the one who started out by making the utterly, obviously absurd assumption that not having a car means being homeless.
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Oh, and by the way, there are cities in the world other than Toronto, as well. Unbelievable, I know, but it's true. And in many cities the average person today cannot hold a job without a car.
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That's wrong. They cannot hold a job without *transportation* which is the point of the podcast. If there were alternative forms of transportation that are more effective and cheaper, then they wouldn't need to own a car.
Which was what we said on the podcast that you're now slamming.
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OK, I'll bite. What viable "alternative forms of transportation" are available to the average San Antonio McDonald's worker today?
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Er, the whole point of the podcast is that no one's replacing their cars *today* but looking at the trends and where they're going.
The idea being that down the road enough of these services will be in place to make it perfectly reasonable for a larger segment of the population not to own a car.
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It is currently true for many people in many cities. And there are a number of clear trends and growing services that suggest it's going to rapidly become true for even more people in even more cities. Perhaps even eventually most people in most cities.
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Hey, I know of an even better to get to work that wasn't even mentioned. Just open the door and walk through. Takes about 2 seconds, doesn't require any transportation devices at all and people are doing it today. Blows those "alternative transportation" ideas completely away!
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We actually DID discuss walking as the better alternative in many cases.
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Welcome to the world of the working poor in many cities, where they plow a good portion of their meager earnings back into cars trying to keep a way to get to their measly jobs.
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Uber
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It's shiny.
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Is Car Ownership On The Way Out?
/thread
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Re: Is Car Ownership On The Way Out?
/your argument
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Re: Re: Is Car Ownership On The Way Out?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1Y73sPHKxw
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If not, I suggest you do that before dismissing the entire idea. There's a half-hour of detailed discussion there, and your attempt to brush it all off with a youtube clip just makes you look simple.
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Uh. Ok. None of this has anything to do with the actual discussion we were having. I don't see why you think because of your observations of people on the roads, that it has any impact on the kinds of points being made in the podcast.
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Don't be Gawker. No-one likes Gawker.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Is Car Ownership On The Way Out?
1. It's not a clickbait headline.
2. It's a podcast, and the point is to listen to the whole discussion.
3. The discussion itself was about the question in the headline. In other words, the headline is an accurate portrayal of the question we used as the jumping off point for the podcast.
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The average vehicle occupancy is 1.67 per vehicle which has been trending downward aside from social/recreational trips, which tend to be 2.2. You are likely referring to work trips which are at 1.13. See p 33 of the 2009 NHTS: http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf
As anyone in the tech industry knows, paradigm shifts do not happen overnight, en masse. They start in niche, beachhead markets that seem inconsequential before going viral. Significant shifts in niche markets are to be written off at one's peril. Change takes time and starts small, but impact will nevertheless be large over time.
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No
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Re: No
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Vehicle ownership trends downward as population density trends upward. As more people live in denser environments, fewer people need to own cars. For existing solutions to work, we need high density. Automation may enable us to get to somewhat lower densities as well.
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