World Bank Report: TPP Will Bring Negligible Economic Benefit To US, Canada And Australia
from the well,-that's-awkward dept
Supporters of TPP generally insist it's absolutely worth doing, despite any infelicities it might contain, because of the huge overall economic benefit it will bring to participants. But when challenged, they are unable to cite any credible evidence for that claim. That's because there isn't any: despite the impact that TPP's measures will have on how the US and other countries do business, there are astonishingly few studies on whether it will indeed have a positive impact overall. Just over a year ago, we wrote about one of the rare attempts to model TPP, commissioned by the US Department of Agriculture, which came up with the following result for countries like the US and Australia:
TPP is projected to have no measurable impacts on real GDP
However, that particular study only looked at the effect of removing traditional tariffs; as it pointed out, TPP includes other elements that might also boost GDP. Fortunately, we now have a new report from the World Bank, no less, which took into account all aspects of the proposed deal. Here's the summary of what it found (pdf):
The model simulations suggest that, by 2030, the TPP will raise member country GDP by 0.4-10 percent, and by 1.1 percent, on a GDP-weighted average basis.
That's a little vague: 10% GDP increase is very different from only 0.4%, so it really matters who gets what. The detailed figures are as follows:
Vietnam -- 10%
But those figures too are misleading, because they refer to the cumulative GDP gain from TPP by 2030. It's not clear when the World Bank econometric model assumes TPP will come into effect, but by 2030 it's clearly been running for at least ten years, and maybe even 12. That means all of the figures above need to be divided by at least a factor of 10 in order to arrive at the annual boost to growth, which provides a better measure of TPP's impact than the overall figure.
Malaysia -- 8%
Brunei -- 5%
New Zealand -- 3.1%
Singapore -- 3%
Japan -- 2.7%
Peru -- 2.1%
Mexico -- 1.4%
Canada -- 1.2%
Chile -- 1%
Australia -- 0.7%
US -- 0.4%
So according to the World Bank's figures, the US will gain an extra 0.04% GDP per year on average, as a result of TPP; Australia an extra 0.07% annually, and Canada a boost of 0.12% per year. In other words, they differ from the USDA's earlier projection of "no measurable impacts on real GDP" by amounts that are so small they will be swamped by the general imprecision of the model -- trying to predict what will happen to a big chunk of the global economy out in 2030 is hard, and that's putting it mildly.
The fact that two econometric models of TPP's effects, both from highly-respected institutions, predict that TPP will produce vanishingly-small economic benefits for key countries, including the US, could explain why there are so few such studies. A cynic might suggest that others were started but generated such inconveniently-awful outcomes that they were quietly dropped and never published.
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Filed Under: australia, canada, economics, tpp, us, world bank
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Counting ISDS?
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Re: Counting ISDS?
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Re: Counting ISDS?
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Re: Re: Counting ISDS?
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Re: Re: Re: Counting ISDS?
Good to know.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Counting ISDS?
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Still fighting over Vietnam
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Re: Still fighting over Vietnam
Then why I don't see Indonesia on the list?
Well anyway, if anyone's interested I'm leaving a URL of a page that I wrote in banking industry.
https://developers.bri.co.id/en/news/ready-welcome-digital-age-here-are-3-things-your-busi ness-should-prepare
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Re:
Bow down to your new masters.
Any bad words against the Corporation will see you jailed and/or executed by the rights bestowed upon them by the government, just like the bad old days.
Looks like history does repeat itself, coming soon to the UK via 10 year jail terms for file sharing.
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0.4% are a _net_ benefit
So the totals will be something like 20% up for the management of big corporations, -10% for U.S. citizens in general, huge additional costs and cuts for national benefit programs, increase of national debt, and of course _huge_ amounts of palm grease for Congress members.
When you are screwing over the hoi polloi, there is a lot to pass around for nobility.
So 0.4% net benefits. It may sound like "meh", but it's really a lottery where everybody pays and a few people get large payouts. It's a lot more that will be going on than "0.4%" suggests, and those who are in power are going to pocket a lot more than that. They are not fighting as dirty as they do for a mere 0.4%.
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Re: 0.4% are a _net_ benefit
If it is assumed that these working standards do not harm the country's competitiveness, then that is likely to be false, as while Vietnam could be seen to benefit through increased investment, it is more likely that other nearby countries would instead get the relevant investment because they do not have the labour standards required by TPP and hence can offer cheaper labour.
I have not read the report, so this may be covered in it (and would hope it is...), but it's the sort of thing that means the "obvious" benefits of such trade deals frequently never materialise. If you assume Vietnam would be better off because of higher working condition standards, the actual result might be it being worse off because it becomes too expensive to compete with other nations for labour costs.
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Re: Re: 0.4% are a _net_ benefit
The glass is half full, of what we do not know.
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US Balance of trade
Look to the USA to lengthen copyrights and patents and trademarks so that they can keep sucking money from offshore wallets.
We already know that big pharma might charge $10 per pill for Viagra in the USA, and charge $1 for that same pill in India, even as the pill has a cost of less than one cent. Pfizer tries to bamboozle us with innuendo saying only genuine Viagra by Pfizer works in their ads - other stuff will make your dick go black and fall off(just kidding).
They try to block genuine Pfizer Viagra from being shipped to Canada/USA by their IP.
Pfizer and other pharmacos do this all the time.
And as for Disney, in 10,000 years, the Disney Corporation will be lobbying to extend their copyright on Micky Mouse to 10,200 years....
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What it shows
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These politicians have already proven they will destroy hundreds of thousands of lives if they gain from it.
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Re:
Not your benefits.
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What do the statistics represent?
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Done deal
The TPP, as far as Australia is concerned, is already a done deal regardless of any evidence of its affect on the economy (positive or otherwise).
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Re: Done deal
The TPP will be passed by Murdoch's puppets no matter how much it damages the long term prospects of the national interests of Australia, such as the downgrading of the National Broadband Network from fibre to the home to copper wires at Murdoch's demands so as to protect his profits from attacks by Netflix & the like on his pay TV company Foxtel.
Our Australian politicians should be tried for treason as they consider the interests of a foreign citizen to be more important than the prosperous future of the entire nation.
It appears that the TPP will see more of the same treasonous activities from many other governments around the Pacific, just so the USA can try to keep China in a box. It will be as successful as their plan to put Putin & Russia back in their box by punishing them for invading Ukraine by reducing the price of oil, thereby supposedly bankrupting Russia.
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TPP, et al, Costs harmless Taxpayers
Debts to harmless taxpayers, or, Scorched Earth, Global Depression?
TPP Costs harmless Taxpayers. Why not make Global Corporate Partners pay for ‘Privilege’ of joining TPP, et al & Corporations pay TPP Tribunal’s punitive penalties NOT the harmless taxpayers?
Do ‘We’ (& PM Trudeau) want ‘Good Corporate Citizens’, or, more of Stephen Harper’s & Corporate Canada’s Global assocs. to Punish the harmless taxpayers & complete the Info Deprivation?
After New Zealand’s PM admitted that medicines will cost more, have the citizens of New Zealand & other TPP nations also noticed similar moves like Canadian Prime Minister Harper below? ‘To help pay for the harmless taxpayers ‘guilty transgressions’ against Global Corporations in Canada, Prime Minister Harper has recently cut the funding for health care by $36 billion dollars’. (please see article below)
There is a great deal more to the ‘Foreign’ Treaties/’Arrangements’ (TPP, CETA, TTIP, et al), than Tobacco Carve-out, Piggy-backing Autos & Parts from China to N. America &/or the EU via Japan, Gouging Drug Prices, Fish, IP, Privatizing Public Health Care, Dairy products & Pork;
Why didn’t Someone Tell me that the Punitive Penalties of the TPP’s Tribunals would come off the Top of Signatory Governments’ Budgets & Not the Bottom after All other Expenditures? Corporations & Shareholders First and the lil’ guy gets left overs, if any.
Should Politicians Have to Sully Their ‘Beliefs’ & Sales Pitches with ‘Sordid’ Facts that Come from Actually Reading & Understanding Global Treaties/’Arrangements’? Just the Facts; ‘We’, The People can Draw our Own Conclusions? Unless they’ve been paid via ‘future considerations’…
2 Republican Senators Admit that They Have read the TPP.
Congress/Parliaments; Deluded, or, Deluding; 'IGNORAMUS et IGNORABIMUS' (I do not know & I will Not Know)?
‘Quis custodiet ipsos custodies’? (Who Will Guard the Guards?)
Canada’s (US’s) Traditional Media (Corporate Canada, et al) seem to be Adjusting the TPP ‘Goal Posts’ in order to ‘Demonstrate’ how Canada Won more than it Lost & similarly in all of the other Traditional Media of the other TPP nations. How did ‘We’ all ‘Win’ if everyone else ’Lost’? Isn't more accurate that the Global Corporations WON BIG time & ALL the citizens of the Trans Pacific nations LOST BIG time?
Guaranteeing the Net Tax Gains for the Voters with Global Corporate Assets Defeats the Purpose of the Global Corporate Treaties/’Arrangements’; ie. it’s like playing the ‘Shell’/Shill Game without Hiding the Pea.
TPP & other Global Corporate Arrangements Accelerates Disparity at Voters Expense.
• Can Piggy-backing 80% of products from China, BRICS, et al, on to Canadian products exported to the U.S. really lower the taxes of Canadian citizens by 7% if Corporate Canada increases our Taxes (Global Corporate Tribunal Penalties) by 2- 12%+?
• Canada’s Remorseless Prime Minister (Pay for The WAD Accord's
Compensations, etc.) & Depriving Citizens, et al, of Due Diligence Info?
• There is no melodramatic ‘Boom, or, Bust’ in the TPP & the other Global
Corporate Treaties/’Arrangements; it’s just a huge Shift of
Liabilities from Corporations to the harmless lil’ guy
and taking Huge amounts from the lil’ guy via Punitive Penalties ‘giving’ it
to Shareholders as ‘Profits’;
Tort Reform on Steroids is Tort Abolishment.
• TPP & other Secret (‘Omerta’) Global Corporate Treaties/”Arrangements’;
It doesn’t matter that it’s a secret, ‘You Should have Known’, Pres. GHW
Bush on Corporate ‘US’ Reneging on FTA.
• If it isn’t a Schedule to Reduce Trade Tariffs then it’s a Secret American led
‘Slave’ (Democratic Rights) Trade by Info Deprivation.
• How long have Global Corporate Associates been ‘Passing’ Legislation in
Anticipation of Suing Once Ratified? ‘Trickle’ Up & Out Economics.
• Corporate America, after its 2008 ‘Tactical Probe’ into Deregulation & Its Sub sequential Buying Short on its Global Recession, is Anxious for Its Legitimized & Globalized (TPP/TTIP/CETA) ‘Full Invasion’; HSBC’s money laundering, Enron’s insider trading, Chase Bank’s fraud, etc.
Corporate Canada & its Traditional Big 3 Political Parties are desperate to
increase its play time under the ‘skirts’ of Corporate U.S. in the
International Glitter Game.
• TPP, TTIP, CETA; Roll-back NAFTA, et al, Tribunal Penalties (ISDS) paid by Canadian lil’ guy; $125 M & $25 M legal fees to Reneging Corporate America. U.S. Pays ‘0’. ‘You Should have Known’; President Bush. Prohibit Future TPP, et al, ISDSs.
• Corporate America is Leaving Grassroots U.S./Canada, et al, Fatally Vulnerable; China can Kill TPP, et al, by Offering its Trade Partners Alternative to citizen Punishing Dispute Settlements (ISDS) & few other ‘Hearts & Minds’ choices? CHINA too ‘Humbling’ for Corporate America & Assocs.? Is a Kinder & Wiser CHINA too ‘Humbling’ for Corporate America & Assocs.?
• China & BRICS can Kill TPP, et al, by Offering its Trade Partners Alternative to citizen Punishing Dispute Settlements (ISDS) & few other ‘Hearts & Minds’ choices? BRICS too ‘Humbling’ for Corporate America & Assocs.? Is a Kinder & Wiser BRICS too ‘Humbling’ for Corporate America & Assocs.? Corporate ‘U.S.’ is Leaving Grassroots America, et al, Fatally Vulnerable.
• But, will the lil' guy get 6 years to read, consider, discuss & improve upon (with lawyers paid by Global Corporate Assocs.)?
***
FULL Article, see; davidehsmith.wordpress.com
***
Also see; Excerpts from
'The Submission' to The SUPREME COURT of CANADA: ‘The SHAREHOLDERS & Corporations of AMERICA, China, Canada, the EU, the Trans Pacific nations, et al
v.
the (harmless) Canadian NON shareholders, both; Native & non Native, et al’
including
'The MERKEL (Chancellor of Germany) Letter; To Sue, or, Be Sued?'
(see; davidehsmith.wordpress.com)
***
For the FULL ‘Submission’, see; The SUPREME COURT of CANADA
***
Please consider sharing the enclosed information & questions with 10 friends who will share it with 10 others...
***
Also See; ‘You Should have Known’; President Bush re; Corporate ‘America’ reneging on FTA at davidehsmith.wordpress.com
***
FULL Article, see; davidehsmith.wordpress.com
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