Elon Musk's Master Plan Includes Turning Tesla Into An Autonomous Uber
from the one-more-thing dept
Tesla's Elon Musk is not afraid to think big and then go for it. He famously published the Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan ten years ago, and has pretty much stuck to that plan. The short version was this:Build sports carNow it's 10 years later, and Tesla is in the process of trying to buy another of Musk's companies, Solar City, which he argues helps target the final point in the list above, while the runaway demand for the Tesla Model 3 suggests that the "even more affordable car" is soon to be reality as well.
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
Don't tell anyone.
And thus, Musk has now released the next part of his master plan, which spends a fair bit of time trying to justify the merger with Solar City, and then focuses on a bunch of the self-driving efforts that Tesla is working on. Obviously, the company has been in the spotlight recently over some autopilot accidents that have killed drivers. The company's PR reaction to that hasn't been great, though there is a really good point that tons of people die in regular car accidents all the time. If Autopilot can be just marginally safer, even if there are still some accidents, that's still a big improvement. But, even so, Musk argues that their goal is to get Autopilot to be 10x safer before Tesla would remove the "beta" description on the feature.
But, of course, the most interesting bit comes at the end, where he basically announces that once Tesla really gets Autopilot working, they'll more or less turn the company into an Uber competitor, where any Tesla owner can just put their car to work earning money for the owners while they wouldn't normally be using the car:
When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.Now that's interesting. Of course, lots of people have predicted how the idea of car sharing may change in the age of autonomous vehicles. That part isn't entirely new. But a lot of the predictions I've seen about it focused on the idea of a big company (generally Uber) owning the fleet itself. The idea was that if you could summon a car at super low cost whenever you needed it, why would you ever need to actually own a car. And that makes some amount of sense. But Musk's vision appears to be slightly different, in that people could "own" their own cars, but put them to work, drastically lowering the net cost of the vehicle itself for those who choose to own, rather than just make use of ride sharing. Now, that does raise other questions. It would certainly increase the wear and tear on the car, and lower its value at a more rapid rate, but perhaps that doesn't matter so much if the options are cheap enough that you could replace the cars more frequently.
You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.
In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.
Who knows how any of this will play out in reality -- we're still a pretty long distance from it becoming reality. But the very nature of transportation and car ownership may be about to undergo a fairly fundamental shift. And that's a pretty big deal.
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Filed Under: autonomous cars, autopilot, car sharing, elon musk, self driving cars, solar power
Companies: tesla
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There's another important thing to keep in mind here. When a person dies, (for good, unable to be resuscitated, etc,) all their knowledge goes with them. They're unable to learn from their mistakes or pass on what they know to anyone else.
But when something goes terribly wrong with a computer, unless it's quite thoroughly destroyed, people can still take it apart, analyze it, figure out what went wrong, and fix it. (Heck, that's a large amount of what I do for a living: figuring out why software broke and how to fix it!) This is why commercial aircraft have indestructable "black boxes" to hold the flight data recorders: when something goes terribly wrong, they use the information about what happened to make all future versions safer.
It's a tragedy that that guy died, even if he did sort of bring it on himself by not paying attention. But given what we've seen of the competence of the folks at Tesla, it's a tragedy that's likely to only happen once.
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But you are correct.
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Yeah, that was exactly my point. The set of problems it can't deal with keeps getting smaller and smaller with each new iteration.
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The next thing google will want is all vehicles communicating between themselves so googler will cache all the conversations. We won't even have a choice. Outdated vehicles will be banned from roadways. We won't even be able to work on our own vehicles. Fuck You.
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i don't think anyone is seriously arguing that autonomous cars will get to 0 accidents, just that as soon as they are better than humans that will start saving lives and reducing costs for insurance companies. I really think it'll be the insurance companies that end up driving the adoption of autos.
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I like his legalese at the bottom. I think I'll start including a version of it in my emails:
"Certain statements in this blog post, such as those about future products, services and features, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information."
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That legalese isn't really his. It is pretty standard on any company's earnings release and other press releases.
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I can't wait
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It is the same reason (or flip side of it) why self driving car services won't be terrible.
Here's the secret: competition
Imagine if self driving car services were like normal businesses that competed with each other. McDonalds vs Burger King. And quite unlike Comcast.
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unfortunately, it will be a result of Empires failure, and we will drop back to horse drawn carts...
assuming we dont eat all the horses when Empire falls...
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Owning a car
But I think that is just a transition and things change.
Owning a car is to own a capital intensive machine that sits idle most of the time. Naturally it's appealing to rent it out when you're not using it.
But it's also appealing to not own one in the first place. Once self-driving Uber like services become as reliable as the electric utility power, it will suddenly become attractive to more and more people to NOT own a vehicle.
That cycle just feeds back on itself. The fewer people own a vehicle, the more demand is for the self-driving car service. But fewer owners to provide the vehicles. Thus those services will become just another common type of business, like McDonalds. Johnny Cab.
Thus, I think individual owners renting out their self driving cars may happen. But it will be a transitional step toward how things will end up.
But (most) people don't think about how the world will change until the signs are beyond obvious. Like how the original automobiles would change everything so that there is unbroken concrete from your door step to my door step.
Of course, the world is changing in other ways that may make these dreams impossible. And not for reasons that have anything to do with science.
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Baby steps. Baby steps. Just turn the kettle a little higher and a little bit longer to see how well the citizens endure.
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Franchise
I took a Tesla for a test-drive recently - they're very careful to describe autopilot as being "souped-up cruise control" and pointing out that you need to monitor it all the time.
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Seems to me they are selling a lie. False advertising at the least.
Model S comes with Autopilot capabilities designed to make your highway driving not only safer, but stress free.
Not really, I'd sit there "monitoring" it, fearful it will plow me into a truck it couldn't "see."
Advertise it as an autopilot... when you get to the dealer all of a sudden it's a "souped-up cruise control."
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Aircraft autopilots will happily fly into a mountain if there happens to be one in the way.
Autopilot is not the same as "autonomous".
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My second comment is again "...tons of people die in regular car accidents all the time." Actually the number is: " A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first nine months of 2015 shows that an estimated 26,000 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes." - NHTSA web site. For the whole year about 34700. the number of drivers in the United States is: "The USA has between 202 million to 240 million licensed drivers (2006 estimation).-EK " - www.answers.com Does not really matter - lets be conservative - lots of baby boomers have died - 200 million will suffice. Well statistically it is easy to prove, autonomous cars are going to have a hard time being "marginally safer" especially when one considers the failure rate for electronic components - circuits boards, diodes, capacitors, sensors, wireless, power supplies runs at 3% - 5%. That in itself should scare anyone out of believing in autonomous cars.
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I'd say it's exactly the opposite, for reasons I explained in my comment above.
If I screw up at the wheel and get myself killed, there's absolutely nothing about that event that prevents you from doing the exact same thing and getting yourself killed too. But when Autopilot makes a mistake, Tesla can analyze the data, figure out what went wrong, patch the software, and push the update to the entire fleet, so that nobody in a Tesla ever gets killed that way again.
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Every time an airplane disaster has happened, people didn't say "ban all the airplanes". Instead, we put a lot of effort into post-disaster engineering analysis to ensure that the same disaster won't happen again.
That's the biggest reason why flying is the safest method of travel you can engage in.
"In the world I like to live in this kind of mistake is career ending."
In the world I like to live in, people would look at the larger picture rather than a single incident.
If autonomous cars cut the car-related death rate even by 10%, then it wouldn't matter when the cars made the occasional mistake -- on the whole, we would still be better off.
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There are many, many areas of technology development that would be stopped dead in their tracks if that kind of attitude was prevalent. Cars and planes are obvious examples. Luckily for us the world you like to live in is not the world we all actually live in.
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I suppose Tesla is telling all their customers they are being used as human guinea pigs.
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Do you know what airline pilots call the safety procedures they have to follow with every flight? "Rules written in blood." Because most of them are just that: lessons learned from cases where people died, turned into procedures to make sure it doesn't happen again.
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However, what relevance it has to a discussion about a collision by a non-autonomous vehicle I have no idea.
Tesla is not an autonomous vehicle. Tesla's Autopilot system is not an autonomous system. It is a suped-up cruise control.
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What your Uber costs now has absolutely nothing to do with the cost of an antonymous Uber of the future.
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But it makes a lot of sense for a substantial number of people. Personally, I find owning a car is not only expensive, but enough of a pain in the ass that I will gladly ditch it as soon as an alternative that meets my needs comes around.
It doesn't even have to be that much cheaper -- but it's hard to see how it wouldn't be, given that the more costly expenses (insurance, maintenance, etc.) would be shared across many people.
I don't live in an area that has anything like Uber, so I have zero experience with such things. My comments are half speculation, and half just the fact that I don't like owning a car.
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An automobile on US roads is involved in a collision. Who is at fault? The driver? The manufacturer? Nobody? "It was on autopilot, but you're supposed to hover over the controls to correct for anything the software couldn't handle?"
Until that's settled, I foresee grave problems getting these things insured. And without insurance, you're not rolling far in the USA. Or getting financing, for that matter.
We could have a new reality TV show called "Who Wants To Be A Test Case?!"
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Just me?
Sure you car can go drive people around while your at work and then come to pick you up at the end of the day. So long as you don't mind the lovely mix of vomit and other bodily fluids all over your car. That is if your car even makes it back.
That would sure make things easier for the chop shops wouldn't it. Just hail a car, disable it, load it up and go. Really cuts down on the risk when someones car will come to you in a nice empty parking lot for you to steal it.
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The President and Musk must have mind melded
FACT SHEET: Obama Administration Announces Clean Energy Savings for All Americans Initiative
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/07/19/fact-sheet-obama-administration-ann ounces-clean-energy-savings-all
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What?
The final point was "Don't tell anyone."
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Tesla is the Future
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I dont think...
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Non computer drivers
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