Wall Street Is Dreaming Of Megamergers Under Trump -- Including A Verizon-Comcast Super Union

from the ill-communication dept

We've been discussing how despite all of the "populist" rhetoric on the Trump campaign trail, the President Elect has nominated several cozy telecom industry insiders to guide his telecom policy and select a new FCC boss. Both Jeffrey Eisenach and Mark Jamison have lobbied and worked for large ISPs, spending most of the last decade vehemently fighting against any and every consumer reform in telecom. Both have made it abundantly clear they not only want to roll back net neutrality and new broadband privacy rules passed under current boss Tom Wheeler, but they want to dismantle the FCC entirely.

With every indication that the government will be significantly more friendly to telecom giants in the new year, Wall Street has quickly gotten to work giddily daydreaming about mergers that were previously unthinkable in the space. Most commonly that involves predictions that Sprint will finally merge with T-Mobile (blocked under the current FCC because it would have reduced overall wireless competitors), or that Comcast and Charter will try to buy either Sprint or T-Mobile as part of a broader cable industry attempt to push into wireless.

But in a research note to investors this week, UBS analyst John Hodulik dreamed notably larger, arguing that the incoming Trump administration could possibly even allow a merger between telecom giants Comcast and Verizon:

"Densification of wireless networks required to meet the needs of video-centric subscribers increases synergies of cable-wireless combinations and provides the springboard for 5G-based services," he proclaims. "A roll-back of Title II re-classification could further increase incentives for cable," he adds, casually citing the likely dismantling of net neutrality and the FCC under Trump.

He put forth a number of models that include Dish fusing with T-Mobile or other variations. But he noted that a Comcast or Charter merger with Verizon would create "significant synergies" and "integrated products" while being "accretive to revenue and EBITDA growth."

While a Comcast Verizon merger may create "significant synergies" in the eyes of Wall Street, it could be downright fatal for broadband consumers. Verizon FiOS is among the only real competition Comcast sees along the east coast; so much so that the region is the only part of the country Comcast is afraid to expand its unnecessary usage caps into for fear of competitive repercussions. Eliminating that competition not only would result in caps and higher prices, but less motivation than ever for Comcast to improve its abysmal customer service.

Now it's entirely possible that Verizon and Comcast don't want to merge, but it's clear that Wall Street sees a huge new wave of consolidation looming for the already uncompetitive broadband industry all the same. Since Trump's telecom advisors don't believe telecom monopolies exist, believe that regulatory oversight of said nonexistent monopolies should be virtually nonexistent, and can't even acknowledge that the sector's competitive shortcomings are real -- what could possibly go wrong?

Trump, of course raged, against megamergers on the campaign trail to drum up populist support, not only claiming he'd block AT&T's $100 billion acquisition of Time Warner, but claiming he'd somehow dismantle the already merged Comcast NBC Universal. Based on his telecom advisors' own words and policy positions, there's virtually no chance of either actually happening. In fact, Wall Street, Trump's own advisors, and most of the telecom sector clearly expect the exact opposite.

Between the Trump "populists" realizing they've been taken for a ride, and the net neutrality activists annoyed at the demolition of broadly-popular net neutrality rules and other broadband consumer protections, we're looking at quite a storm of megamerger dysfunction in the new year.

Filed Under: antitrust, broadband, competition, doj, megamergers, monopolies, wall street
Companies: comcast, ubs, verizon

IRS Gives $104 Million To UBS Whistleblower... Who The DOJ Put In Jail

from the mixed-messages dept

Sometimes it seems that the federal government's left hand has no idea what it's right hand is doing. Bradley Birkenfeld, a former banker for Swiss banking giant UBS, blew the whistle on UBS practices of helping Americans hide their money offshore. For his troubles, the Justice Department charged him, leading to a plea deal in which he plead guilty to fraud conspiracy and was put in jail for a few years. He just got out a month ago... and now the IRS has handed him $104 million for the whistleblowing, which resulted in UBS paying $780 million to the government to avoid prosecution itself. The IRS claims they're doing this to encourage others to blow the whistle on tax fraud... though they might want to warn the DOJ not to put their whistleblowers in prison. That said... $104 million seems somewhat insane. I realize that it may have resulted in the US government getting a lot more money, but $104 million still seems like a giant sum of money to give a guy who, as the government's own efforts show, participated in fraud. If the idea is to "get the word out" to whistleblowers, you would think that smaller sums, still in the millions of dollars, would do the trick...

Filed Under: awards, bradley birkenfeld, conspiracy, doj, irs, jail, whistleblowers
Companies: ubs