Cable Companies Looking To Buddy Up With Sprint Once Again To Save WiMax

from the let's-see-how-this-works... dept

Remember a couple years ago when all the big cable companies teamed up with Sprint with plenty of fanfare to provide mobile phone service and to compete against Verizon and AT&T? Whatever happened to that? Oh, right, it went nowhere. So, perhaps don't get too worked up over the news today that cable companies Comcast and Time Warner might be teaming up with Sprint and Clearwire to fund their troubled WiMax efforts. If you recall, Sprint and Clearwire had a huge deal (with hundreds of millions in backing from Intel) to WiMax the nation, and that deal also fell apart though everyone knows they've been seeing each other on the sly. They know they can't do it alone, so certainly having some support from Comcast and Time Warner could help move this project forward, but there have been so many false starts and stumbles that you can bet this isn't going to go as smoothly as all the players are about to suggest.

Filed Under: cable companies, wimax
Companies: clearwire, comcast, sprint, time warner

Are Sprint And Clearwire Getting Back Together Over WiMax?

from the ain't-dead-yet! dept

A month ago, we noted that the end of Sprint and Clearwire's WiMax partnership was bad news for just about everyone involved. Almost no one could come up with a good reason for Sprint and Clearwire to end the partnership -- and now it appears that, just like A-Rod returning to the Yankees after a brief breakup, the rumors now are that Sprint and Clearwire are getting back together over WiMax. This really isn't all that surprising. Both companies had to realize it made more sense to work together on this than going it alone -- and with Verizon Wireless finally deciding to go with LTE for its next generation solution, both Sprint and Clearwire finally realized that they are going to have some competition out there for wireless broadband, and it would help both companies not to slow down the rollout. At least Scott Boras won't make any more money off of this deal. Update: Then again, maybe not. Apparently the original report on the potential of Sprint and Clearwire getting back together is incorrect. Still, it wouldn't be surprising if it did eventually happen anyway.

Filed Under: wimax
Companies: clearwire, sprint

Wireless Showdowns That Compare Apples And Oranges

from the better-than-what-now? dept

WiMax has been having some troubles lately, but there's still a half decent chance it will eventually be useful. However, with some suggesting that recent WiMax tests show it's better than the competition (via Broadband Reports), it's worth digging into the details a little bit. The actual report (pdf) doesn't seem to compare it to very much "competition." It merely compares it to WiFi -- which is not and was never meant to be a competitor to WiMax. WiFi is a local area solution. WiMax is a wide-area solution. They're very, very different. It would be a shock if anyone ever discovered that in a wide-area wireless offering that WiFi performed better than WiMax, because that would mean WiMax was in serious trouble. Also, this is how WiMax performed under special circumstances, on a small scale, with a special permit from the FCC. Besides, the issue has never been about getting a WiMax access point to work. The real problem that people are having with WiMax is getting it deployed and working on a wide-scale in a cost effective manner that people will use -- none of which this particular test dealt with. So, we have a small-scale deployment that basically works better than a technology that wasn't even meant to compete in the space. It's like comparing a Ford Pinto to a skateboard and announcing that the Pinto is better for driving across the state. That's true, but it hardly means the press should declare the Pinto as the best solution out there.

Filed Under: ball state university, wifi, wimax

Sprint Turns Down Offer For Money, Help From SK Telecom

from the things-are-getting-interesting dept

It's been an interesting week in the wireless arena. First Verizon Wireless promised to tear down some of its walled garden, then it announced plans to use LTE as its next generation wireless technology... and now the news comes out that Sprint has turned down an offer of a $5 billion offer from SK Telecom and Providence Equity Partners. There were some strings attached, including bringing back Tim Donahue to run Sprint. Donahue was the head of Nextel when Sprint and Nextel merged, but left soon after the merger was done. Personality-wise, people have often noted how Donahue was different than the folks at Sprint, so perhaps it's no surprise that Sprint isn't interested, even as the company is desperately seeking a CEO following the ouster of Gary Forsee.

What's more interesting than the CEO job or the money, however, is the question of what SK Telecom is playing at here. The company has invested heavily in its US MVNO joint venture Helio, which was announced nearly three years ago to great fanfare, but hasn't lived up to the hype (though, it has managed to survive where many MVNOs have collapsed). SK Telecom, like Japan's NTT DoCoMo before it, keeps looking for investment opportunities outside their home countries, but never seem to be able to repeat the successes they've had back home. DoCoMo, you may recall, had a deal with AT&T Wireless that turned into something of a disaster for everyone, so having SK Telecom assisting Sprint is hardly a slam dunk, despite its success back in Korea. SK Telecom seemed to pitch part of the benefit of working with Sprint being its experience with WiMax in South Korea, but so far, that experience is anything but encouraging. It's also worth wondering if such an investment would eventually lead to Sprint taking over Helio to consolidate SK Telecom's focus (alternatively, some might point out that since Helio uses Sprint's network, SK Telecom's investment offer could even be seen as a way to protect Helio's network).

What is clear is that Sprint needs some leadership and some direction, and it needs it quickly. With Verizon Wireless' LTE announcement, the race for next generation wireless technologies got a lot more interesting. While Sprint may have had a pretty big head start, the more it staggers around trying to find a CEO and a plan, the more it cedes to the other players who at least have the appearance of having a comprehensive strategy in place (the reality may not match the PR spin, of course). The SK Telecom deal may have provided both a leader and some direction, but clearly the company's current board didn't appear thrilled with either. Don't expect this to end here, though. There may be additional attempts by SKT, and it may cause others to wake up and pay attention as well. Sprint may end up with a leader and a strategy thrust upon it, whether it wants it or not.

Filed Under: investments, lte, wimax, wireless
Companies: providence equity partners, sk telecom, sprint, verizon wireless

WiBro's 'Success' Not Boding Well For WiMax

from the ouch dept

Many people confuse the future with the present. For years, I've heard variations of the following phrase at numerous conferences and multiple articles: "Well WiMAX is here so it has a huge time to market advantage over -blank-." The author or speaker usually then moves on to cite how WiBRO is entrenched in Korea, and Sprint will have Chicago and DC hooked up by end 2007, so WiMAX is here. Citing future dates, and using the present tense is a grade-school error, and the future has ways of making fools of soothsayers. The end of the year is fast approaching, and the news out of Sprint is about a failed partnership, not a pilot launch. Meanwhile, back in Korea, WiBRO is still faltering. WiBRO was a proprietary deviation of mobile WiMAX that the Korean government promoted because they didn't want to wait for WiMAX, and they wanted to drive the standard by getting out of the gate early. But back in September 2006 after 3 months of service, the 2 WiBRO networks in Korea had attracted 479 and 15 subscribers. By February 2007 KT was up to 906 users while SK Telecom (a former employer of mine) was at 151. We joked that that represented a staggering 1,000% growth since September!

In the latest news out of Korea, Telecoms Korea reports that 17 months after launch, SKT's WiBRO has fewer than 1,000 subscribers. What an abysmal record. Of course, it's reminiscent of the early days of FOMA or of Hutch 3 UK. It's tough to shoulder the growing pains of a new technology that was launched before its time. Arrows in the back are the common reward. The government is pressuring the carrier to continue deployment of the network to meet regulatory minima. SKT will respond by increasing the number of "Hotzones" from 56 in 23 cities to 100 in 42 cities, and will eventually upgrade to Wave 2 which should double speed and capacity. Of course, as is typical of WiMAX rhetoric, it'll be hard to get clarity on whether they mean "double speed AND double capacity at the same time" or whether it really means "double speed and thereby double capacity". WiMAX now may be entering the "trough of disillusionment," but that doesn't mean it's dead in the water. If they can get the darned thing to work well, the global reference cases of WiBRO and Sprint's Xohm will shine like a beacon. If they don't get it to work in 2008, it'll be more like bacon...fried.

Filed Under: korea, wibro, wimax

Would Google Buy Sprint?

from the and-what-would-they-do-with-it? dept

Last month, when Sprint's investors pressured former CEO Gary Forsee to resign, Derek Kerton's post here on Techdirt made some compelling points:

"The disconnect is that investors in Sprint are risk-averse, Blue-chip, dividend seekers. They invested in Sprint when it was a utility company. But Sprint's 'gambit' into WiMAX has taken them way out of the 'utility company' comfort zone -- and the reaction of the investors is as expected. With Xohm, Sprint's risk profile is looking more and more like a big tech firm, say Yahoo or Apple. Today's Sprint needs risk-seeking investors, not fixed-income seekers."

Could a big risk-seeking investor -- who surely sees an opportunity in "big tech" rather than as a "utility" play be coming along? That, at least, is the premise of a blog post from Rich Tehrani kicking off speculation that Google is sniffing around to buy Sprint -- a rumor perhaps accurately called "hare-brained" by Eric Savitz.

While I tend to lean towards Savitz's view of the likelihood of such a deal, there are some nuggets in there that could make this slightly more interesting. Obviously, Google has a tremendous interest in the mobile space these days, believing it's a key part of its continued growth. The company has made plenty of noise about its supposed intention to bid for the 700 MHz spectrum that's coming up for auction. On top of that, it's increasingly looking like Sprint's WiMax plans are in trouble. However, Sprint still controls a huge chunk of 2.5 GHz spectrum that is quite valuable (whether its used for WiMax or some other wireless broadband technology). It's not entirely ridiculous to think that Google has at least kicked the tires on a plan that would involve getting access to that spectrum. It seems like a stretch that Google would want to burden itself with all the additional legacy issues associated with Sprint, but that chunk of spectrum sure must look tempting to a company with billions of dollars on hand, just waiting to be spent.

Filed Under: rumors, wimax, wireless
Companies: google, sprint

Sprint And Clearwire Break Up: Bad News For Both... And Anyone Looking Forward To WiMax

from the slow-it-down dept

While we've been quite critical about WiMax in the past, it was mostly due to the ridiculous hype around the technology well before it actually existed. There was so much hype that many (including reporters) simply claimed it existed when it did not. Even some companies referred to their non-WiMax wireless broadband solutions as WiMax. However, with Intel pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into it and Sprint deciding to bet on WiMax, we hoped that perhaps it could actually live up to its hype someday (though, not for a long time, certainly). When Sprint agreed to team up with Clearwire to build a single nationwide WiMax network, it seemed even more reasonable a possibility that it could actually come to be. Splitting the cost of the infrastructure made a tremendous amount of sense. So much sense... that it might not be happening. Due to Sprint's recent troubles (where it's even considering ditching WiMax altogether, due to some incredibly shortsighted investor pressure) Sprint and Clearwire have called off their agreement to work together on a nationwide WiMax network.

This is bad news for just about everyone (with the possible temporary exception of the other US mobile operators and baby bells). Without the combined effort, it makes it even more questionable whether either one will be able to go much further with WiMax, let alone build their own nationwide WiMax network. Sprint may end up dropping the WiMax effort altogether (again, due to shortsighted investors) and Clearwire may just be in trouble. It also hurts anyone who was hoping for real wireless broadband in the near future. While the other mobile operators and landline broadband providers may breathe a sigh of relief, it means that those companies can slow down their own plans for next generation services, as the competition won't be as fierce and they won't seem quite as late to the game. There is still some talk that something else could potentially happen with Sprint spinning off its WiMax network plans and merging that with Clearwire, but without the strong backing of Sprint, the plan is less likely to get as far. This isn't the death of WiMax, but it certainly opens up the opportunity for some other wireless broadband offerings to take away some of the WiMax hype.

Filed Under: wimax
Companies: clearwire, sprint

Are Short-Sighted Sprint Investors Throwing Out The WiMax Opportunity With Forsee?

from the risk-vs.-reward dept

As per the rumors circulating for just a few days, activist investors, and disgruntled shareholders have ousted Sprint CEO Gary Forsee. There are three main reasons for the ouster -- and not all of them make sense.

1. Sprint has a relatively high churn rate among the majors, and is acquiring new customers much more slowly than chief wireless rivals AT&T and Verizon. For the next quarter, Sprint has issued guidance that they will suffer a net loss of over 300k subscribers, which is atrocious in a time when AT&T and VZW are net adding about 1.5M each. There seems to be no resonating marketing message, and the brand is suffering.
   
   My take: This is a problem that can be blamed on Sprint management and marketing execs, and possibly right up to Forsee. Sprint needs to find a message that resonates with customers, stick to it, and rebuild the brand. Realistically, their service is scarcely better or worse than the other oligopilists, but the perception is that it is worse.



2. The Nextel merger is not going as well as expected, with delays in integration, and frustration and churn among Nextel's formerly loyal blue-collar Push-to-talk (PTT) base. Prior to acquisition, Nextel was the goose that laid golden eggs, with ~$70 ARPU, but that goose is plucked.
   
   My take: The roots of this problem stem from the "Nextel Spectrum Swap" that was in motion long before Sprint stepped in. Nextel is vacating spectrum that it promised not to use because it was interfering with Public Safety radios in the 800MHz band. As it vacates, existing Nextel users are getting crammed into a smaller band, and quality is suffering. The only cure is to speed up the rollout of EV-DO Rev.A, and get Nextel users migrated to PTT services over CDMA. Sprint is showing every sign of doing this, so is there any executive culpability? Perhaps the Nextel merger was simply ill-conceived, and overpriced.



3. Investors are not thrilled about Xohm, Sprint's big venture into WiMAX service at 2.5GHz.
   
   My take: This is a serious fundamental disconnect between investors and management. The Xohm effort is something I earlier described as follows: "Sprint's 2.5GHz strategy is tied in my mind for "gutsiest US telco project" with Verizon's FIOS project. If Sprint succeeds, they will have a sustainable advantage that their competitors cannot easily copy (for lack of spectrum)."
   
   The disconnect is that investors in Sprint are risk-averse, Blue-chip, dividend seekers. They invested in Sprint when it was a utility company. But Sprint's "gambit" into WiMAX has taken them way out of the "utility company" comfort zone -- and the reaction of the investors is as expected. With Xohm, Sprint's risk profile is looking more and more like a big tech firm, say Yahoo or Apple. Today's Sprint needs risk-seeking investors, not fixed-income seekers. Of course, the result is that Sprint is churning investors faster than it churns subscribers. And it's easier to lose old investors than to gather new ones.
   
   Perhaps existing investors would rather see Sprint sell off its 2500MHz spectrum to some VC, private equity-backed group that could take the risk, and pay a dividend to shareholders. But that doesn't make sense. It's exciting to finally see a telco do something bold, take risks, and...yes...even get a bit desperate. Because it is in desperation that the telco will break ranks and do radical things, like give the customer what it wants. Xohm promises no long contracts, open-access to any compatible device, ample bandwidth, and reasonable and varied pricing plans. Damn, does that sound like a breath of fresh air! Techdirt is firmly in the camp that so doing, a telco would actually INCREASE the value of their products, and grow profits.

By no means is Xohm a slam dunk. WiMAX is, as yet, largely unproven. Timing is essential, and any significant delays will reduce the Sprint advantage. But an early success would radically change the wireless landscape, and could not be readily copied by competitors. In Sprint, we have the best of the capitalist system, where the effort could succeed or fail, but in pushing the envelope by merely entering the race, things are better for all consumers. Forsee or not, I hope Xohm lives on.

Filed Under: gary forsee, wimax
Companies: sprint

WiMax Spectrum Fight With School Districts Highlights Market Distorting Effects Of Gov't Monopolies

from the worthless-spectrum...-oh-you-want-it? dept

We've tried to point out how government granted monopolies can distort a market, whether it's in the intellectual property space or within wireless spectrum. For example, take a look at what's happening in the 2.5 gigahertz spectrum space. A bunch of 2.5 gigahertz spectrum was handed over to schools and non-profits, supposedly for use in education. The rules on those licenses were that it couldn't be owned by for-profit businesses... but could be licensed to them. Of course, for many schools, the idea that they owned any spectrum rights at all was a complete mystery. Many valued the spectrum at absolutely nothing (which was its real value to them) and let the licenses expire. However, with Sprint's latest focus on WiMax, it could make use of more 2.5 GHz spectrum. It already owns a bunch, but not enough. So, of course, now that this spectrum is suddenly valuable to Sprint, schools are scrambling to renew expired licenses to the spectrum they valued at absolutely nothing, in order to turn around and license it to Sprint for quite a bit of money. In other words, you have a natural resource given to schools absolutely free. They didn't value it and didn't have any use for it at all. Then, a company comes along that actually can do something useful with that spectrum, and the schools are suddenly setting roadblocks in their way. That doesn't seem like a particularly useful thing -- but thanks to another set of gov't granted monopolies, combined with a complete lack of a comprehensive spectrum allocation policy from the FCC, it's what we're left with.

Filed Under: spectrum, wimax
Companies: clearwire, sprint

Ah, So Now Intel Says 2008 Is The Year For WiMax

from the don't-bet-on-it dept

Intel has been hyping up WiMax for ages, to the point that many people (including reporters) believed it existed when didn't. In fact, Intel even declared WiMax a proven success before it existed. Now that's marketing! While there's a decent chance that WiMax will eventually be successful, it's reached the point that we have a hard time believing anything Intel has to say about the technology. So, when they come out and say something like 2008 will be the year for WiMax consider us skeptical. The good news is that we're not the only ones. That Wired article is written by Bryan Gardiner who expresses his skepticism and quotes some WiMax skeptics and points to Intel's earlier overstated claims on the technology. Either way, the idea that 2008 will be the year for WiMax simply reminds me of the fact that some wireless company or analyst firm seems to have declared every year since 2003 the year for "3G wireless." Now that we're moving on to what some people consider "4G," it's only fitting that we have four or five years of people claiming that next year (no, really this time!) will be the year for WiMax.

Filed Under: wimax
Companies: intel