Wolverine, Box Office Results... And Piracy

from the what-do-you-do... dept

A few folks have sent in Matthew Belloni's attempt to quantify how much the leak of Wolverine "cost" at the box office. On one point we agree: the number is basically impossible to calculate in any reasonable way. Yet, that doesn't stop Belloni, whose estimates seem to be based on some odd assertions. His first number ($7.18 million) is based on the obviously untrue idea that everyone who downloaded the movie didn't buy a ticket. That makes no sense, and it's odd that it's even included. The second and third numbers ($15.75 million and $14 million) are based on comparisons to other "similar" movies which grossed a bit more in their opening weekends. But, in both cases, those movies actually got really good reviews. That's not the case with Wolverine, which has received pretty damn bad reviews. Rotten Tomatoes has it at only 37% positive reviews. That's really bad. And it's somewhat ridiculous to then compare it's opening weekend to Iron Man last year. Iron Man came in at 93%. Belloni claims these movies are "review proof" but offers no evidence of that whatsoever. I know I only saw Iron Man because of the awesome reviews, and since many people have associated the failure of the Hulk movie to bad early reviews, this is actually the first I've heard that these movies are somehow "review proof."

Belloni does include a somewhat snarky "$0" possibility if "the copyleft" was correct that the impact of the downloading didn't hurt the movie at all. But he doesn't do much to investigate that claim at all. He certainly doesn't explore that perhaps the real issue may not have been with the fact that the movie was leaked, but with the way 20th Century Fox responded to the leak. In acting like jerks, threatening everyone, and even firing a reviewer, it also seems likely that some people purposely boycotted the opening weekend. Instead, if the studio had been smart and actually responded in a smart way, it could have increased interest in the actual movie. So, I'd argue that if there was any "loss" in opening weekend revenue, the fault would have to lie with the studio for its reaction, rather than the leak.

Either way, the movie still brought in $87 million and destroyed the competition in the theaters this past weekend. It's difficult to see how anyone in Hollywood could claim with a straight face that the leak did much harm to the movie. The movie brought in a ton of money, and even if we grant the implausible theory that the leak "harmed" the theater revenue, once again it seems like if the studio and the theaters just focused on giving people a reason to see the film in the theaters, the leak would be totally meaningless.

Filed Under: box office, copyright, leaks, piracy, wolverine

If Piracy Is Destroying The Movie Business, Why Is The Box Office Surging?

from the so-much-for-that-theory dept

We've already discussed how last year the movie industry had yet another record setting year, despite the fact that the most popular movies in the theaters were also the most pirated. Yet, just a few weeks ago, we were hearing the movie studios whining (and, oddly, the NY Times buying their argument) that "piracy" was "winning the battle" against the industry.

Odd, then, that this weekend the NY Times (without ever referring back to that article from less than a month ago) is noting that attendance at movie theaters is way up since the beginning of 2009. And, no, it's not just that tickets cost more (though, they do), but in real numbers more people are going to the theaters. The article suggests that it's because of the recession. More people want to "escape" from reality and not have to think for a few hours, and a movie theater is a cheaper way to do that than many other options.

But, of course, if we believe the movie studios (and, um, the NY Times as of a few weeks ago), digital "piracy" is killing the business. You would think that, in a recession, the problem would just get worse, since fewer people would be willing to spend money on a movie they could get at home. But, it seems that the opposite is happening. But, who needs evidence? Somehow I doubt that we'll get the NY Times to admit its earlier story was wrong -- nor will the MPAA stop blaming piracy for supposed, but totally unproven, losses. Why bother with evidence when you can make an emotional appeal for the government to prop up your business model?

Filed Under: box office, movies, privacy, recession

Now The Movie Industry Wants To Blame Halo 3 For Bad Box Office Weekend

from the nice-try dept

The movie industry always wants to blame someone else when something goes wrong with ticket sales -- and it almost always seems technology focused. There is, of course, the ever popular technique of blaming bittorrent, despite the fact that the most popular movies for download do quite well at the box office. A few years ago, we heard that the industry was blaming text messaging, as apparently kids would SMS their friends to let them know that a movie sucked. Again, there was no proof of this -- but the industry insiders insisted it must be true. Over the summer, the industry had little to blame (though, they tried to pin some blame on camcording) since it actually had a record setting summer at the box office. Yet, now that we're into October, there's been a dip and the blame pointing fingers come out quick. What's the problem? Apparently it's Microsoft. You see, Halo 3 recently came out, bringing in more money on opening day than any movie ever. That news seems to have gotten the attention of some movie studio folks who are now grousing that Halo 3 is to blame for poor box office performance this past weekend (found via The Raw Feed). While there appear to be at least a few sane insiders who point out that a much bigger culprit could be the fact that the movies that came out last weekend just weren't very good, others are sticking by their story that movie watchers were staying home to play Halo 3. It's a good thing felony interference of a business model isn't a crime, or the studios would probably be suing Microsoft. Actually, I probably shouldn't give them any ideas...

Filed Under: box office, halo, movies, video games

Biggest Box Office Summer Ever... And Yet All We Hear About Is Piracy?

from the let's-rethink-this,-okay? dept

With the MPAA constantly screaming about how piracy is killing the movie industry, putting poor stagehands and grips out of work, you'd be hard pressed to see the problem when you hear that the box office take this summer passed $4 billion for the first time ever. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that movies are a social experience. People like going out to the movies if the experience is fun and good. If there are good movies, people will go out and see them, even if they're available as a free download online. Just imagine what would happen if the movie industry stopped freaking out, stopped treating everyone as if they were a criminal and (gasp!) actually made the movie-going experience more enjoyable? It seems quite likely that dumb movie industry policies are costing the industry a hell of a lot more than piracy ever has or ever will have.

Filed Under: box office, movies, mpaa, piracy
Companies: mpaa