How To Lie With Statistics: France Pretends HADOPI Law Is Working

from the doing-the-math dept

The French government was one of the first to push for a three strikes policy to kick people off the internet based on accusations (not convictions) of copyright infringement. So, I guess it should be no surprise that they feel like lying with statistics to make the program sound better. The government and various agencies are running around touting the claim that, according to their survey the HADOPI law has convinced more than 50% of users to stop file sharing. Problem is, that's not what the data really says. The real data shows that of people surveyed only 7% said either they "or someone close" had received a warning letter. Now, of those 7%, 50% claimed that they would stop infringing.

Now, if you're playing along with the home game, you should have quickly realized that the actual percentage of people surveyed is more like 3.5% -- and I could argue that it's even lower for a few key reasons:

• The key question asked wasn't whether the individual would stop file sharing, but whether or not they or someone close to them had. Suddenly you have a big statistical problem, because -- to take an extreme example -- let's say that everyone in a town knows the one big file sharer who shares content online, but no one else in the town does. And, that guy knows and makes it clear that if he gets an injunction, he'll stop. Now, since everyone knows this guy, the reports from that town would be that 100% of people receive letters and 100% of those recipients would stop using P2P, even if that wasn't true at all. Including the "or someone close to you" makes the effective data pretty close to useless, because there's no way to separate out the overlap.
• The whole thing is based on a survey, which is notoriously unreliable in getting accurate data. People quite frequently answer what they think others want them to say, rather than what they're really thinking. And, when asking them if they'll stop engaging in illegal activity, many are simply going to say yes, even if they have no intention to follow through.

So, if you add that all up, suddenly we're talking about a very tiny fraction of users claiming that they'll actually change their behavior based on a notice, but with a little fun and games, people can pretend that the numbers are much higher than they really are.

Filed Under: france, hadopi, statistics

Exploit On Hadopi Site Turns It Into Pirate Bay Supporter

from the guilty-until-proven-innocent dept

Hadopi, the French agency set up to enforce France's three strikes and you're kicked off the internet policy, apparently isn't very good at securing their own website. Someone found a simple XSS vulnerability and set up a page where Hadopi was promoting the Pirate Bay with an integrated search. Of course, lots of sites end up with XSS vulnerabilities. It's often tough to avoid them (and yes, we've been caught with them a few at times). But, the reason why this is especially ironic is that part of Hadopi's position is that if you fail to secure your internet access point, you're still liable for the actions of users on that access point. Thus, it's not a stretch to argue that Hadopi is, by its own rules, liable for any infringement that may have occurred via its own site, right? Perhaps Hadopi should kick itself off the internet.

Filed Under: exploit, hadopi, xss
Companies: hadopi, the pirate bay

Hadopi Wants To Kick People Offline For Watching Unauthorized Streams As Well

from the mission-creep dept

Well, well. A top guy at the French "kick you off the internet" Hadopi agency is apparently claiming that the organization's mandate goes beyond just people accused (not convicted) of file sharing, and could be used against people watching unauthorized streaming content as well. There's no indication given as to how Hadopi or anyone else would actually be able to find out who was watching streamed content, short of seizing log files. But, won't it be great when you can lose your internet connection, because your friends pointed you to a video on YouTube that wasn't properly licensed?

Filed Under: france, hadopi, streaming

Not Many French Users Scared Away From File Sharing By Hadopi

from the there-goes-that-plan dept

One of the main arguments made by the entertainment industry in support of three strikes rules is that it won't really kick people off the internet, because so many people would just stop file sharing. It looks like that's not really happening. A new survey in France suggests that only 4% of people have decided not to file share since the new rules were put into effect. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to ask whether or not any of those people actually started buying music instead, but I would doubt it. A lot larger percentage said they'd keep on downloading, with many taking more precautions not to get caught. Meanwhile, about 75% of those surveyed said they didn't download at all... but they're not thrilled that they now have to pay higher ISP fees to cover the costs of Hadopi.

Filed Under: file sharing, france, hadopi

End Result Of HADOPI? Higher ISP Fees

from the but-is-anyone-buying-more? dept

It's not like people didn't warn everyone what would happen with various three strikes laws. The costs for ISPs were widely discussed, even if the recording industry lobbyists insisted they were overblown. Yet, here we are, a few months into France's HADOPI implementation of three strikes, and French ISPs are already warning users that they need to jack up fees to pay for compliance with HADOPI. And, of course, no one has provided any evidence that kicking people off the internet for file sharing makes anyone any more likely to buy. So, now, not only are people less inclined to buy just in general, but they have less money, because they have to pay more to their ISP. How's that going to save the recording industry's old business again?

Filed Under: copyright, fees, france, hadopi, isps

Record Labels Angry That Hadopi Isn't Kicking People Off The Internet Fast Enough

from the pick-up-the-pace dept

A few months back, we noted that Hadopi, the French bureaucracy in charge of sending out "you're an infringer" notices and then kicking people off the internet under that country's three strikes plan, was receiving 25,000 notices from record labels per day (there was some confusion on that story, as I originally believed Hadopi was sending out 25,000 notices, but it was only receiving that many). Only a few months later, and the labels have now ramped it up to 50,000 per day, which was the target amount that they had set back in September. However, it appears that the record labels are upset that, while they're sending Hadopi 50,000 notices per day, Hadopi is only sending out notices on about 2,000 per day. The industry wants Hadopi to just do what I had thought they were doing originally and rubber-stamp all their notices and pass them on. It hopes to get up to 10,000, but the industry is still pushing for 50,000 per day, which is insane when you think about it.

Think about how many mistakes are being made when you're sending 50,000 notices per day. Over the course of about five years, the RIAA apparently sued less than 20,000 people -- and still made a lot of mistakes. US Copyright Group got a lot of attention for accusing a few thousand people of file sharing particular movies -- and also appears to have made a lot of mistakes. Yet, here, with Hadopi, the labels are accusing 50,000 people per day, and are upset that Hadopi isn't just rubber stamping all the notices? It appears that the record labels don't care at all about what happens if they accuse totally innocent people.

Filed Under: france, hadopi, labels, three strikes

Hadopi Already Up To Sending Out 25,000 'First Strike' Notices Per Day

from the no-internet-for-you dept

When Hadopi first started sending out "you're an infringer!" first strike notices last month, we noted that it was initially sending out 10,000 per day with plans to ramp up to 50,000. It isn't taking long. The latest reports show that it's already sending out 25,000 notices per day. That seems like an awful lot. Remember, in all the years the RIAA was suing individuals for file sharing, it only ended up suing 18,000 people total, though it threatened legal action against 30,000.

Of course, this should give you an indication of why the entertainment industry likes these sorts of three strikes things much more than actual due process and lawsuits. They can go after a lot more people, for a lot less money, and a lot less of pesky due process and silly antiquated concepts like "innocent until proven guilty."

Filed Under: copyright, france, hadopi

Sarkozy Wants To Use Anti-Censorship Conference To Promote Censorship By Copyright

from the that-takes-gall dept

We've pointed out many times how copyright is, by its nature, a law for censorship. Now, you can argue that it's necessary or useful censorship (though, I doubt I would agree), but it cannot be denied that the basic purpose of copyright law is to stifle a form of speech. That's why I'm always amazed at the disconnect of politicians, who support anti-censorship efforts online at the same time that they promote plans to censor-via-copyright law. Of course, most haven't actually thought about it, or they insist that copyright is not censorship at all, and they can't fathom how the two are connected.

Having said all that, though, it appears that not only does French President Nicolas Sarkozy recognize that copyright law is about censorship, he actually seems proud of the fact that he's using copyright law to stifle speech. As a bunch of folks have sent in, there's a conference being held in France about freedom of expression and against internet censorship. Sarkozy has apparently decided to try to use the conference, instead, to promote his Hadopi "three strikes" copyright concept. This is pretty stunning. It's as if he's openly admitting that copyright is censorship, and he's perfectly happy with that, and wants to expand it further.

Filed Under: censorship, copyright, free speech, hadopi, nicolas sarkozy

French ISP Free Gives In, Will Send 3 Strikes Notices

from the too-bad dept

Well, it looks like the saga of the Hadopi loophole is now over. We had written how the French ISP 'Free' had been refusing to pass on Hadopi "three strikes" notices, realizing that the law did not mandate that ISPs pass on the notices, but the law did say that you couldn't have your connection disabled if the notices hadn't been sent. Not surprisingly, this upset the French government, which took the extraordinary step of simply decreeing a change to the law to require ISPs send on the notices. This seemed extreme, and potentially illegal.

While Free had initially indicated interest in fighting this, it's now given in and will send the letters. Apparently, French President Nicolas Sarkozy had threatened to "make an example" of ISPs who didn't send on the notices. Fitting, of course, that a law that avoids due process is changed without any due process.

Filed Under: france, hadopi, three strikes
Companies: free

French Culture Minister Unilaterally Tries To Change Hadopi Rules To Close Loophole

from the that's-how-democracy-works? dept

We recently wrote about how the French ISP Free was using a loophole in the Hadopi "three strikes" rules to protect its subscribers. Basically, the law says that ISPs should pass along the notices, but does not have any penalties if the ISP does not pass the notices along to users. So Free simply chose not to pass along the notices, even if it did send user info to the agency. But the problem is that the law says that users can't be cut off unless they've been notified, so without the notification, there can be no kicking people off the internet, which was the entire point of Hadopi.

In response, it appears that French culture minister Frederic Mitterand decided to unilaterally decided to issue a "decree" clarifying Hadopi and extending the fines for not handing over info to not passing along the notices. Of course, that raises all sorts of questions about the French lawmaking process, and Free is insisting that such a decree, issued quickly with no review or vote is simply not legal. Also, it's been pointed out that EU law requires that members notify the EU regulatory bodies of any new laws that would punish ISPs if they don't comply -- and clearly this didn't happen in this case.

As Zeropaid points out in the link above, it is pretty clear that Free is playing a semantic game, and it's likely that the law will be changed eventually to close that loophole, but that certainly doesn't mean it's okay for the French culture minister to unilaterally change a law without any review or oversight, just because the original law makers left a loophole in.

Filed Under: france, frederic mitterand, hadopi, loopholes, three strikes
Companies: free